Estonia's intel chief shares his assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and Zelenskyy's "victory plan."
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00:00As the war in Ukraine brings ever more death and destruction, key European officials fear
00:05Moscow is now preparing for conflict with the West.
00:09My guest this week goes along with that view.
00:11He's Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia's intelligence service.
00:15But he still believes Russia can lose.
00:19Our task in the West should be to make sure that Russia comes out of this conflict as
00:24a weakened power.
00:27So how united is the West and how vital is it that Ukraine gets the weapons it wants?
00:33Kaupo Rosin, welcome to Conflict Zone.
00:41In your view, how long does the West have before it might, I say might, have to fight
00:48a war with Russia?
00:54Of course, I have to say that we don't really track the developments in the West.
01:00The question is, the answer to that question is it should be as long as Russia is defeated.
01:08And I think this is a mission which is absolutely possible to conduct.
01:15You say that, but in your intelligence report in February, you said that a military confrontation
01:22with the West, Russia was preparing for that.
01:25And that could happen within 10 years.
01:29There are other people, other officials in Europe who are shortening that timeline.
01:34In July, the chief of the general staff of the British Army, General Rowley Walker, warned
01:38that NATO had three to five years to prepare for war with what he called an axis of upheaval.
01:46That's Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.
01:50Do you agree with that?
01:51Okay, so for me to understand the question better.
01:56The point is that the timeline or the time, the space what we have on our disposal before
02:05a potential conflict with Russia, the first, there are several factors in that timeline.
02:14Of course, first, we have to make sure that this potential event doesn't happen at all.
02:21So the first big question is, how does the conflict in Ukraine end?
02:26And that will determine the future path of Russia, who is the aggressor in this issue.
02:37If we have a situation after the, let's say, Ukraine-Russia war, where Russia emerges from
02:45that as a victorious, very self-confident power, it will make all calculations based
02:52on that new situation then.
02:56Our task in the West should be to make sure that Russia comes out of this conflict as
03:02a weakened power, which or who might be then resolving some of the internal problems, which
03:12it would probably run into if there is a Russian defeat in that conflict.
03:17And I think Putin would not survive a Russian defeat.
03:22And the second question is, how long it takes Russians to reconstitute or generate forces.
03:31We have to keep in mind that, and I wouldn't like to talk about the Russian reconstitution.
03:37I would like to name that issue maybe a Russian post-generation or Russian forces development.
03:44We have to keep in mind that the Russian armed forces today are several hundred thousand
03:50men bigger than it was before launching the large-scale invasion.
03:58And this is the capabilities part.
03:59And Russia keeps generating forces.
04:03It generates additional manpower, running into bigger and bigger problems with the generating.
04:11But currently, they are on track with that.
04:13And, of course, ammunition production and equipment production or refurbishment and
04:20production with the Russians are also in a good track.
04:23So we have to...
04:24I want to come on and deal with some of those issues in detail.
04:27But this month's newspaper reports, you talk about Russia needs to be weaker if the West
04:33is to avoid a war, emerge weaker from its war with Ukraine.
04:37This month's newspaper reports say Russia had already received more than 200 ballistic
04:43missiles from Iran at a port on the Caspian Sea.
04:47And there was a risk that more would be provided.
04:51And if those missiles keep coming from Iran and from other members of that so-called axis
04:57of upheaval, Russia isn't going to emerge weaker.
05:00It's going to emerge much stronger, isn't it, if this trend continues?
05:06Russians are currently trying to boost up its military strength.
05:12And of course, based on that military strength, they are conducting attrition and warfare
05:15with Ukraine.
05:19So our task is to make sure that the attrition ratio is in a beneficial, that the number
05:26is beneficial for Ukraine.
05:28It is also, I would assess, that Russia cannot keep this attrition rate up for coming years
05:37and years.
05:40So we have to make sure that Ukrainians have the power to treat the Russians as much as
05:46possible.
05:47And the question is, how do we, let's say, deal with the Russian intention part, vis-a-vis
05:54Ukraine and vis-a-vis the West?
05:57Again, the main task of what they have to solve before it comes to any potential conflict
06:03between NATO and Russia is to make sure that Ukraine emerges as a weak, let's say, as winning
06:13part of this conflict.
06:16Yes, but it doesn't look like that at the moment, does it?
06:19It doesn't look as though it's winning.
06:21It's suffering steady losses on the Eastern Front, never mind the fact that it's advanced
06:26its own forces into the Kursk region inside Russia.
06:29But it's not doing well on the Eastern Front at all, is it?
06:33I think the situation is very difficult.
06:36But I wouldn't say that the Russians are, let's say, doing great either.
06:41What the Russians probably would like to do is to treat the Ukrainian part as much
06:48as possible, so the Ukrainian front would collapse.
06:52But I don't see that happening anytime soon.
06:56So and I'm not sure either if the Russians have a clear victory strategy also.
07:03I'm not sure they have that very, very clearly defined.
07:06They have it in the public rhetorics.
07:08We know what they want.
07:11That's based on what they say.
07:13But in the reality, it's something they cannot achieve, I would say.
07:18Do you think Mr. Putin wants a war with the West?
07:23I think he respects NATO.
07:26But it is also again, we have to make sure that this respect continues over the coming
07:32years.
07:33And then it comes to our part then, how well are we prepared?
07:38How good are our plans for the eastern flank?
07:42So you're saying he'd like to have a war if he can get away with it?
07:45Is that your conclusion?
07:46If he has the feeling that he gets away and nothing happens to him, he comes out clean,
07:54then it might run into the calculations.
07:57But I would say if I come back to Ukraine-Russia situation, then let's say even if it comes
08:03to the situation where there will be negotiations between Russia and maybe Ukrainians, but
08:09I would assess that the Russians would likely only would like to talk to the Americans only
08:15over the heads of Europeans.
08:18And they would also like to discuss not only Ukraine, but also the broader security, European
08:25security architecture.
08:26So what they call would be is to push NATO capabilities and activities as far as possible
08:32from the Russian border and create a new situation on the ground based on that.
08:41And then again, calculate forward from that moment.
08:44And this type of discussion obviously is very dangerous if it comes to the agenda.
08:53You talked about the need for NATO to up its game.
08:57How much faith do you have in the alliance at the moment?
09:00I ask because two years ago, your former Prime Minister, Kaya Kalas, was highly critical
09:05of NATO's plans to defend the Baltic states.
09:08She said they would have resulted in Estonia being wiped off the map.
09:13Has NATO upped its game where its planning is concerned?
09:16How did it come up with a plan like that in the first place?
09:20Well, I don't know how it came up with a plan like this, but I have the feeling that...
09:26It was pretty hopeless, wasn't it?
09:30It was definitely not beneficial for us, but I would say as far as I know, the plans
09:37have changed in that regard.
09:40And well, it's a constant work.
09:42Of course, it needs a lot of discussion in NATO between NATO allies or different allies
09:47have different viewpoints, which is understandable.
09:50It's a beauty of the alliance, but I think we are on the right track.
09:54Most of the countries understand the threat that Russia poses, also mid and long term.
10:00And there is a general understanding that we have to be prepared or we have to be prepared
10:07to protect ourselves or to defend ourselves.
10:09What about the troops that Kaya Kalas wanted, the NATO troops between 20 and 25,000 to be
10:15based in Estonia?
10:17Has that happened?
10:18Will it happen?
10:20No, well, that's probably a question more for the Chief of Defence, how many troops
10:24are needed here.
10:28She went public saying that it hadn't happened and she needed it to happen.
10:33And the last reports we've had saying that it hasn't happened.
10:36So that's why I'm putting the question to you.
10:39Absolutely.
10:40So I think the question here is about what units are designated for, let's say, reinforcement.
10:49We, again, concrete numbers are more in the Defence Forces domain, probably the question
10:56is how many troops were deployed in the peacetime, which must be also manageable, both in training
11:05areas and economically.
11:07And what is probably important for us is that we have all over NATO troops designated for
11:14potential follow-on reinforcements, which then would be launched after a proper early
11:20warning is given.
11:22So what's the answer?
11:23Do you have enough troops or not at the moment to repel a Russian advance?
11:30Should there be one?
11:31I think we would give a good fight to the Russians.
11:36And then hopefully reinforcements would arrive rapidly, according to the plans.
11:43And do you have a cast-iron guarantee that more than 30 countries, the members of NATO,
11:47will fight side by side with you if you're attacked?
11:51I'm pretty confident in that.
11:54But again...
11:55It's not in the small print, is it?
11:56It's not in Article 5.
11:58Yeah, but the question is about the NATO defence plans, which are constantly developed and
12:06it's an ongoing work.
12:09That's how it is.
12:10We've been talking about a possible war with Russia, but in a sense, it's already begun,
12:15hasn't it?
12:16If you can talk to me a little bit about the sabotage operations that have the Kremlin's
12:21fingerprints on them, not just in Estonia, but elsewhere in Europe.
12:25Is this a growing trend?
12:27Well, it is a tool that Russia thinks it can use against the West in order to disrupt us,
12:36to bring tension into our societies.
12:42Russia probably hopes that it will remain under Article 5.
12:45With these activities in the Estonian case, we have more than 15 people arrested over
12:51the last year in the connection with Russian sabotage activities.
12:56It seems that these sabotage activities are conducted throughout Europe in the form of
13:03arson, etc.
13:07It is something...
13:08How serious are these attacks?
13:11I would say, if I look in the Estonian case, then the level varies a lot.
13:19We have incidents of vandalism, which are, let's say, more or less harmless, up to arson.
13:26The question is, of course, let's say, how it develops.
13:32It has escalated horizontally and vertically over the last year.
13:35So if this...
13:36But with the aim of what?
13:38With the aim of destabilizing your country, or just keeping you on your toes, or making
13:44people nervous?
13:45What's the aim here?
13:46It's mainly to create tension.
13:48It also tries to undermine, probably undermine the support to Ukraine.
13:57It is there to disrupt us.
13:58It is here to tie our resource, so we would pay more attention towards internal issues
14:05and trying to divert our attention from the support to the Ukrainians.
14:12Let's talk about Ukraine's urgent request to use long-range Western missiles on targets
14:18in Russia.
14:19Your president, Alakaris, poured scorn on the NATO countries that have withheld use
14:25of their long-range missiles for Ukraine because of fears of escalating the crisis.
14:30Was he right to do that?
14:31He said it was pure self-deception and reflected indecision and fear, which played into Russian
14:38hands.
14:39If your president is right, and NATO is becoming indecisive and fearful, then NATO is no longer
14:44fit for purpose, is it?
14:46Well, I have to agree with my president.
14:50In this current conflict, there are some very...
14:53If you look into history, there are some several, let's say, new paradigms that Russia has sometimes
15:00successfully installed in the head of Western.
15:04So the first paradigm that the Russians are trying to communicate is that the conflict
15:12should happen only on the territory of the victim, and the aggressor, or whatever region,
15:19should remain untouched.
15:21This is the first time in the military history.
15:25And the second idea that the Russians are trying to, let's say, communicate overtly
15:29and covertly to us is that it is impossible for Russia to lose.
15:36Again, it's not correct.
15:38Russia has lost several wars throughout the history.
15:41So we have to...
15:42No, but the other members of NATO are not persuaded of that, are they?
15:46Other members are showing, in his words, indecision and fear, aren't they?
15:54Russians are trying to install this fear.
15:57So it is, of course, a task for us, for the eastern flank countries, to keep explaining
16:03this to our Western allies.
16:04And I think the understanding is also a little bit changing already, also in more Western
16:12countries.
16:13But I agree, it has, let's say, taken too long time for this change.
16:19Well, it's an ongoing process, isn't it?
16:22Because your president said, I hear several countries expressing a desire for a quick
16:26diplomatic solution and compromise with Russia.
16:29And there's a spreading hope that resetting relations with Putin's Russia is possible
16:34or even inevitable.
16:35You don't believe that, do you?
16:38Well, I am convinced that the Russian current regime must be defeated strategically, because
16:48even if Putin is partially successful in his objectives, we assess that he would continue
16:57in principle.
16:58So the war in Ukraine would be not over in mid-term, even if we have a frozen conflict
17:06at some point or something like that.
17:11And we have to also understand that the Russians are, according to themselves, they are in
17:16the war already with the collective best in their own understanding.
17:21So I don't see there many options for us if we talk about the longer term conflict resolution
17:30than to make sure that Ukrainians win at the end.
17:34And again, I think it is doable, actually.
17:37If the Ukrainians don't get the weapons they need or permission to use the ones they have
17:43inside Russia, will it be impossible for them to win?
17:49I think that one weapon system, like ATACOMS, for example, it's...
17:53That's long-range missiles.
17:54Yes.
17:55American long-range missiles.
17:56It has become very symbolic at this point.
18:00Let's say this weapon system alone doesn't solve the conflict at all.
18:06But the question is, it's about political support or understanding from Russian side
18:15that they are able to deter us based on their rhetoric.
18:19Luckily, the Ukrainians have been developing their own weapons, which seems to be sometimes
18:24more efficient when I look at what happens in Russia.
18:30But we've had a Ukrainian politician on this program just a week ago saying the West has
18:36given us enough weapons to fight, but not enough to win.
18:42That's the view coming out of Ukraine at the moment.
18:45Don't you see where they're coming from?
18:47It is hard to argue with this.
18:53It is an attrition warfare.
18:55So at the end, the side with more will and more resource will win.
19:03It's a question about proper attrition rate for both sides.
19:09Ukraine needs additional weapons, additional ammunition to make that happen, obviously.
19:15So again, we shouldn't be somehow...
19:19We shouldn't restrain ourselves in supporting Ukraine with any type of weapons or ammunition
19:25they need.
19:26And I agree that it has taken too long time for some of the decisions to be made.
19:32But again, I don't see that the course is lost totally at this point.
19:38There are divisions emerging in Europe among NATO.
19:41We have the Czech president, President Pavel, saying Ukraine needed to be realistic.
19:46The most probable outcome of the war would be that Russia would hold on to some of the
19:50territories it's captured, at least temporary.
19:53That's pretty defeatist, isn't it?
19:55If that idea takes root in NATO, that's not going to be good for Ukraine, is it?
20:01Well, our talking point is that Ukraine can still win this.
20:06So there are discussions to be held, seems to be.
20:11In contrast to NATO countries, Russia has been busy transforming its economy into a
20:17war economy.
20:18It's churning out ammunition and advanced weaponry, some of which is not so far appearing
20:23on the battlefield.
20:25Does that not suggest to you that Russia is preparing for a much bigger conflict?
20:31Let's say that currently what we see is that all the resources of Russian armed forces
20:38and Russian Federation, in principle, are going towards Ukraine.
20:46So if we look at the situation currently along our borders, there is not much Russian military
20:53power available from the Russian side.
20:59So that's the good news.
21:00So the question is, if it takes for Russians so long and it's so painful to try to defeat
21:08the Ukrainians, then the question is, how would Russia perform against the West, which
21:15is much more advanced?
21:18I'm not sure that the potential conflict would go out in Russian favor.
21:25Of course, we have to make sure that in our side, the proper resources, clans, equipment
21:32available, ammunition stocks, are at the, let's say, needed level, I would say.
21:40Question is, of course, if the war stops in Russia, the active phase of the conflict stops
21:45in whatever line, it will be very painful for Russian economy to come out of this war
21:53economy mode.
21:56That would be very interesting to watch.
21:59So they would keep producing.
22:01And from that point on, if we take away the attrition which they're having in Ukraine,
22:06from that point on, the, let's say, growth of Russian military is then speeding up, I
22:14would say.
22:15Ukraine's President Zelensky has taken his, what he calls his victory plan to Washington
22:21to run it past the Americans.
22:23He said it's a plan to strengthen Ukraine and force Russia to the negotiating table.
22:29Is Ukraine able to do that, in your view, force Russia to the negotiating table?
22:36I haven't seen the victory plan.
22:39Again, currently, I do not see any will from Russian side to negotiate anything.
22:48It's again, let's say, the perceived weakness of West invites further escalation from the
22:54Russian side.
22:56It's not just perceived.
22:57It is weakness, isn't it?
22:59It's weakness and division in the West.
23:01I think we are actually much stronger if we would be more willing to, let's say, play
23:10out this strength.
23:12And again, the other point is that...
23:13But what are you waiting for?
23:16What's the West waiting for?
23:17Well...
23:18I mean, there have been enough calls and enough warnings.
23:22We are pushing our Western allies, and not only we all the time, it's a daily work.
23:29And this is the situation.
23:31But again, I see some movement, so I'm not that pessimistic overall.
23:37But it is a work we have to continue.
23:42One of the points in President Zelensky's victory plan is that he wants further security
23:47guarantees.
23:50Will they be worth the paper they're written on, even if he gets them?
23:53The Budapest Memorandum, which was supposed to secure Ukraine's future when it gave up
23:59its nuclear weapons in 1994, hasn't done so well for them, has it, particularly since
24:05it was guaranteed both by Russia and America?
24:09So, well, we support the Ukrainian path to NATO, which would be the proper security guarantee
24:15in our view.
24:19Is Ukraine going to win?
24:20Not at the moment, is it?
24:22Not unless the West gets its act together and gives it the weapons, is it?
24:26It's not going to win?
24:28No, well, we have to think what would be the situation geopolitically in Europe and in
24:36the world if Russia, let's say, wins.
24:38As I said, in that case, we would have a victorious, self-confident Russia, which would make follow-on
24:46calculations based on the new situation.
24:48We would have a huge flow of refugees from Ukraine if, let's say, Russia would take over
24:55the country in one form or another.
24:58And we would have a situation where the Ukrainian resources would be turned against the West
25:04by the Russians.
25:06Is that what keeps you awake at night?
25:08Well, we are working day and night to, let's say, prevent that from happening.
25:16How long?
25:17Well, for us, this is an existential issue, we understand, so we cannot be tired of doing
25:26that.
25:27All right.
25:28Kapo Roisin, it's good to have you on the program.
25:30Thank you very much for being with us.
25:32Thank you very much for having me.
25:34Thank you very much.