US Fed rate cut: US फेड के फैसले का सोने पर क्या असर, कितना महंगा होगा सोना?
#USFedcut #gold #goldprices #goldprice #commodities #businessnews #businessnewstoday #sharemarkettoday
~PR.147~ED.148~HT.334~
#USFedcut #gold #goldprices #goldprice #commodities #businessnews #businessnewstoday #sharemarkettoday
~PR.147~ED.148~HT.334~
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NewsTranscript
00:00Namaskar! My name is Digvijay Singh. Welcome to Good Returns.
00:03Today, we have Anuj Gupta from HDFC Securities with us and we will talk about gold.
00:09The reason for this is that there is a meeting of the Fed this week and the festive season has also started.
00:13The question is, what is the perspective for medium and long term and what should investors and traders do for this?
00:21How to increase investment in gold? What strategy should be adopted to increase the profit?
00:27So, Anuj sir, first of all, welcome to our special video.
00:32First of all, tell us, what are your expectations for the meeting of the Fed?
00:35What kind of action are you expecting in the bullion market?
00:38Because the global market is trading at a very high rate right now.
00:42See, if you look at it from the start of 2024, we are seeing positivity in the market from the start.
00:49If you talk about the year-on-year returns, then gold has increased by 25% in the international market.
00:57While in the domestic market, it is 15-16%.
01:00Because of the custom duty cut of 9%, the domestic market has not increased as much as the international market.
01:06But yes, if you look at it, it has increased on the positive side.
01:09If you talk about silver, then in the international market, silver has also given very good returns.
01:13Silver has also increased by 25-26%.
01:15So, overall, if you look at it, there has been positivity since 2024.
01:19And this positivity was created for only one reason, that interest rates have started to decrease.
01:24Although, there has been no decrease since January.
01:27But yes, this time it seems that in September, because their main target was to control inflation,
01:34around 2% inflation, to control unemployment.
01:37So, this data has now been shown to be in control of the US.
01:40And this time, the probability that the interest rate can be 0.25 or 0.50 can be cut.
01:49And its probability has become more than 80%.
01:53So, it seems that the interest rate can be cut this time.
01:55And because of that, the rally that we were seeing can continue here as well.
01:59If I look at the global market, then gold is trading at a record high.
02:09If we talk about MCX, then how fast can we see it?
02:14Right now, there is a meeting on 17th-18th, and it will come on 18th.
02:18So, how fast can we see it on 19th?
02:20See, if you look at it already, then currently the prices are trading at a lifetime high.
02:25If you talk about the spot, then the prices are around 2590.
02:30And internationally, the prices are around 2610.
02:33So, there is a positive.
02:35If you look at silver, then it is above 3100.
02:37We have been targeting for a long time that you can see silver at the level of 1 lakh.
02:44Although, last time it was around 96.
02:46But we think that this time it can come around 1 lakh.
02:49But what we are expecting is that the price of gold can come from 75,000 to 78,000 by the end of the year.
02:56Silver can be from 95,000 to 1 lakh.
02:58Recently, Bank of America has also given a target that the price of gold can be around 3 or 4 dollars.
03:04We are assuming that the levels around 2700 dollars can come in gold by the end of the year or by the end of the month.
03:10So, overall, you can see that it will go to the bull run market.
03:16Now, if I talk about the festive season, the festive season has just started.
03:20Now, how much demand will be concerned in this?
03:23Because I feel that the gold jewelry demand, due to the increase in the price,
03:31If the price is high, will there be any impact on the demand?
03:35Is it right or wrong?
03:37You are absolutely right that due to the increase in the price, the demand for jewelry decreases.
03:43Because jewelry is a product in which the design changes very quickly.
03:46So, we have seen that if you look at the data, the demand for jewelry has decreased in the last year.
03:50But if you compare it with that, people have shown a lot of interest in gold bar, gold coin or raw gold.
03:56So, the trend that is going on now is either in gold ETF, where you get a price to price or gold bar or gold coins.
04:04We feel that the demand for jewelry will be a little less now because the price is very high.
04:09And due to the versatility of the designs that we are seeing, the demand for jewelry seems to be a little less.
04:15So, the target of 75,000 gold that you are giving is by the end of the year.
04:20So, how can we get gold by the end of the year?
04:24What should the viewers expect when they buy gold at the end of the year?
04:28At what rate will they buy in the market?
04:30See, generally, we consider Diwali to be the year-end.
04:33Because your new book starts on Diwali if we talk to the Hindu calendar.
04:38A new Sambandh starts.
04:40So, I think you can see up to 75,000 levels by Diwali.
04:44If you look at the year-end, there is no special activity in December.
04:47It's just Christmas, which is at the international level.
04:49So, in December, we generally look at profit booking.
04:52The hedge funds book their profits.
04:54So, I think if we take it to Diwali, then you can see up to 75,000 levels in gold.
05:00What target are you giving for gold and silver in the short term?
05:04I mean, if you look at the medium and short term.
05:06For the long term, you have given that by the end of the year, we will buy 75,000 for gold.
05:10And we will buy 100,000 for silver.
05:12So, if we look at the medium and short-term target for this week or this month.
05:16So, what will you give as a target?
05:18See, if we talk about this week, then we think there will be a positive trend in gold.
05:23And on top of that, we think you can see up to 4,000 or 5,000 levels in gold.
05:28Because if you look at it internationally, tomorrow the meeting will start.
05:33And the meeting will end the day after tomorrow.
05:35So, the market will be a little volatile.
05:36But somewhere, we believe that up to 4,000 or 5,000 levels.
05:41If you talk about the levels in the international market.
05:43Then you can see up to 2,620 or 2,630 levels in gold.
05:48So, we think that this week, you can see up to 1,000 to 1,500 points in gold.
05:54So, traders should follow the bull strategy.
05:59Yes.
06:00So, sir, for gold and silver, let's do a comparison with the stock market.
06:05If we look at the data, what else has been performed in 2024?
06:08If we look at MCX gold, it has run 14-15% gold.
06:13And it has run 18% silver on MCX.
06:16And Nifty is almost the same there.
06:19So, can we see that at the end of the year, the equity market will fall compared to the bull market?
06:25See, right now, gold and silver have beaten in the commodity market.
06:30But yes, I think you will see approximate returns being equal.
06:34But yes, because if you look at the dollar index, it is at the lower level of a year.
06:40So, we see its direct impact on gold.
06:43So, I think gold will outperform this time as well.
06:46And we think gold will go around 75,000.
06:51So, my expectation is that gold and silver can outperform the equity market this time as well.
06:57Okay, sir. Thank you for the outlook on gold and silver.
07:01Sir, I have two more questions.
07:03First question is about crude oil.
07:06Because there is a lot of upheaval in the market.
07:09After 2021, the price of Brent crude had reached the lower level.
07:14It had reached below 70 dollars.
07:16What are your predictions?
07:18How will its mood be in the crude market?
07:21If we talk about the prices of crude oil.
07:24Because we are talking about registration.
07:26Earlier, when we were talking about registration, the data was good.
07:31We saw some recovery.
07:32Then that concern arose.
07:34And then its impact was visible.
07:36If you look at crude oil, it is at the lower level at the end of the year.
07:41It is around 68 dollars per barrel.
07:46So, we have seen a decline in crude oil.
07:48China's demand has been a concern.
07:49Because of this, there has been a decline in prices.
07:51U.S. supply has increased.
07:53Because of this, we have seen that the U.S. is also controlling inflation.
07:56Because the U.S. is the target for controlling inflation.
08:00And the U.S. is also increasing its continuous supply.
08:03So, I think that the prices of crude oil will remain under pressure.
08:05And we think that soon you can reach the level of 65 dollars or 60 dollars.
08:09So, the demand concern, if you look at it from China or India,
08:14the consumption has decreased.
08:16Because EVs have entered the market.
08:18So, we think that the sentiment for crude oil is negative.
08:21Because we think that it will continue in the short term.
08:24This is the last question, sir.
08:26There is an atmosphere of recession.
08:29It has been seen for a long time, for 3-4 months.
08:32It has been seen for the last few months.
08:35There is no change in the recession.
08:37And this doubt is not cleared.
08:39Whether the recession has ended or not.
08:40Or has the U.S. economy gone into a recession?
08:43You are monitoring it very well.
08:45Because you are monitoring the commodity very well.
08:48So, how are you looking at the recession?
08:51Is it there or not?
08:53Please clear it for the viewers.
08:55Look, the recession does not look like this.
08:57But there is a slight slowdown.
08:59Look, the slowdown is also because of the war situations.
09:04Because of that, there is a sentiment.
09:06Businesses are travelling less.
09:08Businesses are less.
09:10So, in my opinion, the current scenario is a slowdown.
09:16Which is short-lived.
09:17Because the way we are looking at the geopolitical tensions.
09:20As long as it is there, you will feel a slowdown.
09:23It does not look like a recession.
09:25But yes, if you look at it, Russia-Ukraine war is still there.
09:29And if you look at Yashar-Ukraine, they play a big role in commodities.
09:32If you look at Israel-Hamas, they play a big role in crude.
09:36So, the sentiment is not that of a recession.
09:40But yes, definitely there is a slowdown here.
09:43Because there is a war situation.
09:45So, as long as there is a war situation, you will feel a slowdown.
09:48Okay, Anuj ji. Thank you so much for your time, sir.
09:51Thank you very much for joining us on Good Returns.
09:53We would like to tell the viewers that if you go to the end of this year.
09:58I have heard that you will get around 75,000.
10:01And it will be high in silver as well.
10:03So, keep an eye on it and stay connected with us.
10:05Thank you so much.
10:07Whatever we have discussed here is for knowledge and awareness.
10:11We do not have a personal position in this.
10:13Whatever you trade, definitely consult your financial advisor.
10:16And take a trade based on your risk.