Erik ten Hag's got a crazy new 3-1-6 system for Manchester United this season, in the hopes of fixing his side's recent defensive frailties. The acquisition of Manuel Ugarte from PSG might not be one that looks immediately exciting, but when examined in the context of the formation change it makes a lot of sense. Adam Clery breaks down the player's strengths and weaknesses.
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00:00Right, hello then everybody, Adam Cleary from 442 here, and Manuel Ugarte has gone to Manchester
00:11United.
00:12That sounded a lot better in my head.
00:15Now as any of you who watched Eric Ten Hag's side last season will know, Manchester United
00:19are very good at doing certain things, and almost comically bad at doing certain others.
00:25And as we saw in the Brighton game already this season, those problems have not magically
00:30gone away.
00:31But does the arrival of this man here for the pricely sum of £50m solve any of those
00:37problems?
00:38Well, to dust off my favourite possible introduction to quote Reverend Lovejoy from the Simpsons,
00:43long answer, yes.
00:46With an if.
00:47Short answer, no.
00:49With a but.
00:52Okay, so this season so far, this has been Manchester United, except it's technically
00:56sorted that, except technically it's sorted that, there's 4-2-2-2, but in reality let's
01:02not mess about, it's kind of like a 4-2-3-1, anyway, that's Man United, but this is Manuel
01:07Ugarte.
01:08To be as direct as possible with you, they've kind of gone and re-signed like a slightly
01:13more modern Roy Keane, but not anywhere near more modern enough, if that makes sense.
01:19He's just this really aggressive front foot defensive midfielder, like he covers the
01:24ground brilliantly and he's excellent in a tackle, which are two things Man United desperately
01:29need, but unlike Amrabat, who did those two things and they already had, he also reads
01:35the game ahead of him at a top, top level, they need that as well.
01:39Now here's the thing, right, if you asked me personally to go and build a Premier League
01:43team from scratch, I would absolutely go and get a Manuel Ugarte, specifically I would
01:50go and get Joao Paolini, but if I couldn't get him, I would be quite happy with actual
01:55Manuel Ugarte, but the problem with that statement is that nobody would ever let me build a Premier
02:02League team, would they?
02:03It would be like letting a Labrador drive a car.
02:06So first off, what are the obvious positives?
02:08Well if we look at his defensive numbers from last season, that should be a gasp that
02:14you are doing.
02:15These numbers are comparative to all the other midfielders in the Premier League, Serie A,
02:20La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 where he was playing, he is practically top in every single
02:26category when it comes to winning the ball back, in fact when you average all those out
02:30for a total score, he comes only behind Joao Paolini, who I just mentioned before, for
02:35ball winning in Europe.
02:38That's incredible.
02:39And interestingly, unlike a lot of other players who score very highly in these sort of categories,
02:43there's no real drop off in the areas of the pitch, he's one of the best at winning it
02:47back in his own third, one of the best at winning it back in the middle third, and one
02:50of the best at winning it back in the final third, so you see what I mean?
02:54A really aggressive, front foot, ball winning central midfielder.
02:58As I think we're all pretty much aware, being a ball winner in central midfield is 50% technique,
03:05how good are you physically at executing a standing or sliding tackle, but also 50% reading
03:11of the game and timing.
03:13It's all well and good being a hard bastard who can smash into people, but if you don't
03:17pick your moments, if you don't go at the right times, you're kind of useless.
03:21Agaté is the top, top, top draw for both of those things.
03:26I'll put it this way, for a team that used to have Roy Keane in it, I think regardless
03:31of Man Utd's fortunes this season, their fans will love this guy.
03:37You know what it's like when you're not playing particularly well and someone just goes in
03:40and smashes into the opposition and wins the ball back and gets that big cheer out of everyone?
03:46Agaté will give you that, if not else.
03:49It's pretty obvious to see the reasons why Man Utd have gone for a player like him, because
03:53despite the formations or whatever they're doing at the top end of the pitch, they do
03:57tend to come out in a 3-2-5 when they're in possession, and that is simultaneously their
04:03greatest strength, but also their biggest weakness.
04:06If we show you their average positions map from the Brighton game, you can actually sort
04:10of see that borne out in the stats here.
04:12Now, Ten Hag has a couple of different methods for getting this shape together when they're
04:16attacking, and I actually think as the season goes on, you'll see more of a 3-1-6, but that's
04:22a video for another time, against Brighton and large chunks of last season.
04:26This tended to be how they came out.
04:28You've got an attacking row of five players here, there's one on the full-backs, there's
04:32the eights, there's the forwards, etc.
04:34Then the two central midfielders, the double pivot, and then three at the back.
04:38Now this is incredibly attacking, by the way.
04:41Say what you like about Eric Ten Hag, he does have Man Utd play on the front foot, playing
04:47forward, looking to dominate chances, looking to score goals.
04:50The only problem is, when you play this way, it leaves you quite vulnerable in the middle
04:56if you haven't got the right kind of players.
04:57And I genuinely can't bring myself to go into it, because we talked about it genuinely about
05:02ten or fifteen times last season, because of the lack of pace at the back for Manchester
05:06United, these defenders did not push up with the rest of the attack, so they had this huge
05:11gap between the forwards and the lads at the back, leaving these two in the middle, constantly
05:16chasing around, trying to snuff out counter-attack.
05:20And obviously the hope is, by signing Matthias De Ligt, by signing Lenny Yoro, by signing
05:24Maserati, they're adding extra pace at the back to try and offset that, but only one
05:29of these players started that game, so the same problem happened again.
05:34And if I take you to that Brighton chance where James Milner looked like he scored,
05:38this was just Man Utd last season all over.
05:42You can see the forwards have pressed right up, they're trying to close Brighton down
05:46during their build-up, but Brighton manage to beat that first line of pressure and get
05:50it into the midfield.
05:51And when it comes into the middle there, if we just pause it here, you can see that despite
05:55Harry Maguire getting a rush of blood and pressing out, the actual Man Utd defensive
05:59line isn't really anywhere near the rest of this team, they're like ten, fifteen yards
06:04back into the run half.
06:06There's this enormous gap between the defence and the midfield.
06:10And this one pass out of defence has now bypassed both Casemiro and Menou, forcing Martinez
06:16to get the idea in his head that he must now charge out and try and do something about
06:20this ball, but of course he is easily bypassed.
06:23And once again, for like the millionth time under Eric Tenhaag, Man Utd find themselves
06:28sprinting back towards their own goal.
06:31And this is the hallmark of a team that simply does not cover the space well, doesn't have
06:37enough mobility in the centre, doesn't have the right decision-making from the players
06:41around it.
06:42It's a huge weakness for them, but it's actually a strength of Ugarte.
06:45So I'm going to show you Casemiro's heat map from last season, he's sort of the player
06:50most likely to be directly replaced either in the starting eleven or across the course
06:54of the game by this arrival, right?
06:56This is how much he impacted the play across 25 games last season.
07:01But this, and I'm just going to gradually fade it out so you sort of get an appreciation
07:05of the difference, across the same 25 games, in fact almost the same number of minutes,
07:11is Ugarte's heat map from last season.
07:13And there's two things you need to know about this.
07:16First off, it's more dense, there's far fewer gaps dotted around for Ugarte than there is
07:22for Casemiro.
07:23So in those same number of minutes, it's impacting the game a bit more.
07:27Not drastically more, but certainly a bit more.
07:30But also, the most interesting bit, despite them playing almost the exact position in
07:34almost the exact system, Ugarte's weighted far more in the opposition half.
07:40Casemiro's the bulk is here and it tails off there, Ugarte's the bulk is here and it tails
07:45off there.
07:46Just to paraphrase there, not only is he doing things more aggressively, but he's doing things
07:50more in general.
07:52Now the first part is explained because as we've said, he's so aggressive, he's so on
07:56the front foot, he wants to squeeze the opposition and he drags the rest of the team with it
08:01while he does it.
08:02Like he's much better protecting the back four when the play is in front of him, but
08:05he wants that back four to go as far up the pitch as possible.
08:09But the first part of that, the density, same number of minutes, same position, similar
08:13sort of system.
08:14How is he contributing more across the course of that season?
08:18Well, if we go and compare the defensive numbers from last season, you'll see that Casemiro
08:22is actually fantastic defensively.
08:25Like for all the criticism he got, he still wins the ball back brilliantly and he wins
08:29it back in every area of the pitch, just like Ugarte does.
08:32In fact, those numbers are virtually identical across the season, except in one area.
08:40Ladies and gentlemen, the power of the interception.
08:44The main difference between a player like Ugarte and a player like Casemiro is that
08:47Casemiro, while he certainly has the brain to read the game, does not have the physicality
08:53to cover the ground required.
08:55He might be able to see where he needs to cut a pass out, but there's no real guarantee
08:59he can get there.
09:00And the one thing above everything else Ugarte has is that physicality.
09:05He covers the pitch at a rate of knots.
09:08He's got some of the best interception numbers in world football because he reads the game
09:14excellently, yes, but he also has the body to go and enact that.
09:18I can see from the direction that Casemiro is jogging that he knows he's locking onto
09:22this player in the build-up, but that the out ball for the goalkeeper lies in this channel.
09:28Like he motions towards it to try and reduce that gap and sure enough, it flies past right
09:34in front of him.
09:35He's not going to get there and cut that out, but Ugarte might just intercept this
09:39here.
09:40But what's like a tiny little bit mad about this transfer is there was a PSG, a bit of
09:45a known issue in his game, that when you do then bypass him, it like takes his brain a
09:50couple of seconds to process the situation given that it's just suddenly changed and
09:55he can switch off a bit and it makes his recovery runs a little sluggish.
09:59Like I remember this vividly from when Newcastle played PSG in the Champions League, that that
10:04down-burn goal, so much goes on in this just touchline area of the pitch and that there
10:11is Ugarte.
10:12Like it does feel there's three or four moments in this where he could make a better decision
10:17or close down a pass or stop across and he's kind of just watching the whole thing.
10:22Like it never really makes sense when you're watching him because he's normally so proactive
10:26and so aggressive and so front foot and so eager to go out and win the ball, but when
10:31you sort of like jumble the words up or give him a fresh Rubik's Cube, his brain makes
10:35like a duck, duck, duck, duck, duck, duck, duck, duck noise while it sort of processes
10:40the information.
10:41And there is one other issue with him that might be a problem for Manchester United.
10:45Do you remember me saying he's like a modern version of Roy Keane, just sadly not modern
10:51enough?
10:52Well, what I mean by that is that he's got everything you need in the tackle, he's great
10:54at winning the ball back, but you can't really give it to him.
10:58And that is maybe the most glaring thing about Ugarte's game.
11:01Like under pressure in these areas of the pitch here, he is more than capable of making
11:07a terrible decision and just handing the ball to the opposition.
11:10And in fact, my friends, not to keep going on about it, but that PSG won your castle
11:15four game that will live in my heart forever.
11:18One thing I thought was noticeable about your castle's first goal is that theoretically
11:22to play your way out of trouble here, Ugarte is the player they should have been looking
11:27for.
11:28So when the press comes in from your castle here, this is actually pretty much what you
11:30want because you've got an open pass into your defensive midfielder with a player who
11:34was closing him down, but crucially not yet touched tight.
11:38So if you roll that into Ugarte, he can then bounce that off to the other centre back here.
11:43You've drawn in these three players, you've got a lot of space to use.
11:45But he makes a really weird decision here.
11:47Like instead of continuing to go into the space where he could receive the ball, he
11:51actually moves to the left, effectively going into the shadow of Anthony Gordon and ruling
11:56himself out.
11:58As Bruno Guimaraes has got really close to this player here, Marquinhos has no option
12:01but to try and go along with it, your castle cut it out and that's where they score from.
12:05But if we just rewind it to the point where there was physically no danger whatsoever,
12:10you can see he did not want to give that ball to Ugarte.
12:15Clearly he knew that wasn't a good idea.
12:18But I mean, my word, what a roller coaster of emotions this video is.
12:21He's great in the tackle, which Man United need, but he's not very good when being pressed,
12:26which they definitely need as well.
12:28But I'll tell you why this could not be a problem in the long term, why they might be
12:34able to mould him into exactly the player they need.
12:37Ugarte, despite not being a good passer of the ball, is actually a great passer of the
12:44ball.
12:45Sometimes.
12:46The guy has an absolutely fantastic long pass in him out to the flanks, whether it's floated,
12:52whether it's driven, whether it's to the left or it's to the right.
12:54He has this great ability to find a wide attacker, and that is incredibly useful to
13:00Manchester United this season, because I mentioned that 3-1-6 shape before, right?
13:06If you imagine that in actuality with your eights pushed up and they're there, four defenders,
13:11that's normally what they're going to be up against, that allows both the wide players
13:15to stretch the hell out of the pitch.
13:17And if all of a sudden you've got a midfielder with a great pass in him, that is a brilliant
13:24way to beat low blocks.
13:26As I said before, Man United this season are going to want to try and get this 3-1-6 thing
13:30going, right?
13:31It didn't really happen against Brighton, but it did happen once.
13:35That Andre Onana long ball out from the back, I mean, look how perfect this is, 3-1-6, right?
13:42The reason you want six players in that forward line is because there's only four defenders.
13:46So you can see them all here, very narrow, very compact, marking these four players.
13:51That allows your wide players, whether they be your actual wide forwards or a fullback
13:55who's pushed up, to stretch the entire width of the pitch.
13:59Now Onana finds Dalot brilliantly with that ball, but that's exactly the kind of pass
14:04that Ugarte could make as well.
14:06If we just imagine this exact situation on the pitch here, if you're able to find a player
14:10like Ugarte in this position against a team who are pressing you high or have got a mid
14:14block or something like that, and he can hit really accurate balls into these spaces here
14:20behind the defence, Man Utd will gobble that up all day, specifically what they're trying
14:25to do this season.
14:26So he can't really pass it intricately and short, but he clearly can pass it, so maybe
14:31they can work on that.
14:32So yeah, one of the more interesting transfers in this window for me, this one.
14:37I think Ugarte is a really good buy potentially, but as with most things at Man Utd, it does
14:42have the potential to go spectacularly wrong.
14:46But anyway, that's just my opinion and I've always got one.
14:49So if you are a Man Utd fan, or like, I don't know, Uruguayan I guess, please let us know
14:53what you make of Ugarte in the comments below.
14:55If I've been saying it wrong the whole video, I've suddenly just started to doubt myself.
14:59All feelings, all thoughts, all everything, welcome down below.
15:02It's nearly time, less than two weeks until I do the Great North Run with no knees, a
15:08bad heart, child of asthma, and now my hamstring even hurts.
15:12So that's going to suck, but we are doing it for UK Mental Health Charity Minds who
15:16are just this amazing cause, very close to my heart.
15:20You guys have been so unbelievably generous with the donations, like we smashed past any
15:26target I realistically had.
15:28So if you haven't donated yet, and you do have a couple of quid lying around, that money
15:31goes so, so, so much further than you know.
15:35So the link will be in the description below.
15:36And if you have donated, like genuinely, wow.
15:42You can get me on all the social medias, at Adam Cleary, CLELY, the 442 socials are in
15:45the corner of the video.
15:46The latest Mbappe flavoured issue of 442 is, I think, on sale now.
15:51I've got a copy anyway, so that's nice for me.
15:53Whatever you see in the stores, go pick that one up, because it's always a good read.
15:56And until next time, I've been Adam Cleary, that's been Manuel Ugarte, I guess that's
16:02Onana, and that's him, the other lad.
16:07Bye.