• 3 months ago
U.S. annual inflation falls to 2.5% in August 2024, its lowest since February 2021. Core inflation remains steady at 3.2% year-over-year, while rising 0.3% monthly, exceeding expectations.
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00:00Well, if you want to know why the core was 0.3 and the overall was 0.2, all you need to look at
00:05is shelter. Shelter's been lagging on the way. It's coming down. It's just been lagging. I think
00:12we'll have under a four year on year handle or four something when we see the data. But shelter,
00:20we know it lags and so you shouldn't put too much under that 0.3. All right. Defense key component
00:28to PCE core inflation year over year, giving us a historical perspective. And then I like the
00:36couple of question marks there at the end. Always keep us guessing. Well, you know, with this CPI,
00:43you're going to get another reasonably decent print on the PCE core at the end of the month.
00:48Now, the end of the month is after the Fed meeting. And actually, we're going to get two
00:54PCE core readings before the November Fed meeting. So they'll get a chance. But, you know,
01:00it's going to it's getting to the two and a half territory. And it's going to probably be a little
01:06sticky at two and a half. There's nothing wrong with two and a half. I understand the Fed's
01:11target is two. But if you're a pretty good economist, you know that two means one and a
01:16half to two and a half. So we've made the range. The idea that economists are very specific to the
01:23decimal point is a it's a big misconception.

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