Former prime minister Tony Blair discusses his new book On Leadership: Lessons for the 21st Century in a wide-ranging interview with The Independent’s editor-in-chief, Geordie Greig.Touching upon his experience of power and leadership, Blair spoke of meeting and trying to work with the likes of Vladimir Putin on the world stage, what Brexit, the past 14 years under the Conservatives showcases about political decision-making and how Silvio Berlusconi helped deliver the London 2012 Olympic Games. Blair also discusses his marriage to Cherie Blair and the advice he has given to his children.
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00:00Tony Blair, welcome to Independent Television. We are delighted to have you with us and this
00:05is the launch of your book, Tony Blair on Leadership. And I want to start, if I can,
00:10by saying you're very frank in this book and you say, towards the end, I wanted power when
00:18I saw what it could do. Take us through, what did you mean by that?
00:25Every political career is based, or should be based on a desire to do something that
00:31you believe in as a matter of principle and conviction. But, you know, it's also you're
00:36attaining political power. And I think if you're being honest about it, the power itself
00:42is also attractive. Now, that doesn't mean to say that you should pursue it at the expense
00:49of the principle, but of course, because you shouldn't. But I think if you're being honest
00:53about it, you also, and you're wanting to exercise leadership, then the exercise of
01:00power is part of what goes with it.
01:02What was the moral sense behind wanting to have the power? Because this book is laced
01:10with sometimes a religious sense, with about eight or ten references to God or the Bible,
01:18but it's not a messianic book. It's a practical book.
01:21Absolutely. I think that's happened more by accident than deliberately, the references
01:26to Moses and so on. Partly because it's also just an interesting concept of leadership
01:32because Moses leads people to the promised land. But actually, most of the time people
01:37are complaining, you know, why did you bring us out of Egypt? We were better off staying
01:42back there in slavery. But it's also because when you're in this position of leadership,
01:50you've got to be aware, and it helps to be aware of how leadership is going to be exercised
02:00in a way that fulfills a mission or a purpose. Because otherwise, you're just occupying an
02:07office. You're a placeholder. You're not a leader. For me, it was very simple. It was
02:14about the modernization of Britain and to try and do good in the world. Now, whether
02:20you achieve that or not is a matter of comment, but I don't think anyone should ever go into
02:26politics unless they want to change things.
02:28All these things often come from a family start and a key moment for you seemed to be
02:34the very early death of your mother. You were 22. Your father had a stroke. He had great
02:40ambitions to be an MP, to be eloquent, to use all those qualities which you've taken
02:46on and enhanced. Was that a key trigger to their bad luck for you to try and compensate?
02:55Yes, I think particularly my father had a stroke when he was 40, very young to have
03:01a stroke. He was just about to stand for what was actually a pretty safe conservative seat
03:10in those days in the northeast of England. He was a barrister. It was all about the communication.
03:19He was 40. I was 10 years old at the time. Suddenly, his entire life trajectory changed
03:24and he had to learn to speak again, which is very difficult.
03:26What was the emotional impact of that? You can take us through that.
03:29I think the emotional impact for me was realizing the fragility of everything. First of all,
03:36our life circumstances changed completely because his main source of income had gone.
03:40Now, he was also a lecturer at the Durham University and he'd been about to give that
03:46up in preparation for standing for parliament in this 1964 election. Our circumstances changed
03:54and then obviously within the family itself, we were then looking after my dad and my mum
04:01was nursing him all through a period of time, about three years before he could actually
04:07speak again.
04:09Can you remember the emotional difficulty of that? Here we are, 60 years on. Does that
04:15still have a haunting sense to it?
04:19Yes, absolutely. I remember my mother coming in to me that morning because he'd had a stroke
04:22in the middle of when he'd come back from an event late at night. I could tell immediately
04:30something's wrong in the way that you do as a child. Then she explained that he was in
04:35hospital and been seriously ill. Actually, for the first day, we thought he'd probably
04:39die, but he didn't. Nowadays, they treat strokes completely differently and much better, but
04:45in the 40s, a young age, to have a serious stroke.
04:50Did you have a fate at that stage? Did that seem as if God was playing really fearsome
04:54tricks with your family?
04:57I remember going into school and saying prayers with one of the masters there. Of course,
05:05it gives you a sense that things are fragile. In a way, what that does, I never spend a
05:12lot of time psychoanalyzing myself, but of course, when something like that happens,
05:18you realize if I'm going to make something in my life, I better get on with it and work
05:23hard.
05:24You spent 10 years as Prime Minister. Looking back, you give very straightforward, practical
05:32guidance on preparedness. How innocently bad were you at that stage right at the beginning,
05:41just through lack of preparedness experience?
05:43I think the extraordinary thing about politics, which I explain in the book, is in no other
05:48walk of life would you give someone a position of that importance, with that much impact
05:55over people's lives, with those budgets, and with no experience. The first job I ever had
06:04in government was being Prime Minister. You'd never appoint a CEO of a company that didn't
06:09have any executive experience or the coach of a football team in the Premier League that
06:14never coached before. You just wouldn't do it. People would have got it as bonkers if
06:18you did. But this is the way it happens, obviously, in democracy. Yes, the whole book
06:25is about the things I wish I'd known when I came in, because it would have shortened
06:31the learning curve. I learned purely by experience. It's best if you can learn by being taught
06:37as well as by your experience, because it means you ascend that learning curve that
06:41bit faster.
06:42Were there things that you would not have done looking back?
06:45I mean, quite a lot, actually.
06:49Go on.
06:50Well, I mean, I always say, when people ask me about my regrets, I say that's for me to
06:55know and others to find out. But no, I think, for example, I mean, not in respect to particular
07:05decisions and so on, but I think in relation to the system, I would be much clearer as
07:13to what it was reasonable to expect the system, you know, that's the bureaucracy, to do and
07:18what was not sensible to rely upon them to do. And basically, the distinction I make
07:23is that, and it's the same in any country, because one of the things, this book is not
07:27just based on my 10 years in government as prime minister, it's based also on the work
07:32we do with 40 odd countries around the world today, and I've been doing that for a long
07:36time. And it's directed not to the UK leadership, particularly, but to leaders in general. And
07:43one of the things you find out about a bureaucracy is it responds well at points of crisis. And
07:53it can be in a sophisticated system, like ours, good at managing things. But if you're
07:57relying upon them to change things, you're making the wrong bet.
08:01Now, you deal with the 40 countries, you deal in your 1,000 strong organisation, you deal
08:06with people who run democracies, as well as people who are just full dictatorial powers.
08:16How do you?
08:17How do we choose? How do we discriminate? It's very simple for me. If you choose only
08:24to work in countries that are traditional Western democracies, it's, you know, you're
08:28not going to be working in a lot of important places in the world. But for me, it's all
08:32about the leadership moving in the right direction or moving in the wrong direction. If they're
08:36moving in the wrong direction, I don't want to be part of it. If they're, what they're
08:39trying to do is make reforms that are going in the end to make them more open, more successful,
08:45you know, their countries and their people better off than I work with them, even though
08:49it's a system with which I might have disagreements on particular points.
08:54One of the things is conviction and courage, which you isolate as characteristics which
08:59people have got to take in order to be good leadership. And there are a few instances
09:05where we learn about you taking steps which we didn't know about. Crime, you talk about
09:12as one of the great things which all leaders should try and hopefully eradicate, but anyway,
09:20and suddenly we slip into your inner street and you see someone urinating against a wall
09:28and you intervene. What happens?
09:30Yes, I actually remember it. I remember it very well. I mean, I think this must have
09:33been in the 1980s. And we were living in a place called Stammerdale Road in North London.
09:43And I remember going out in the street and actually he was peeing against the door of
09:47someone's house. But this was late at night and I was coming back from the tube. And I
09:54sort of confronted him and he pulls out a knife. So I'm left with this. So I take him
10:01on and maybe end my days because he's peeing against the door. I move on. So I moved on.
10:07But you know, it leaves you with a lingering sense of anger and humiliation, actually.
10:13I've always been very tough, hard line on crime. And I think it's really, really important.
10:19It's the first duty of governments to keep people safe.
10:22We saw this with the recent riots. Did you feel that was a swift, fast sense of justice
10:30enacted which eradicated that?
10:32Yeah, I did. I thought that was well done.
10:36With the sense of time with government, how much one's got in power, were you slow over
10:43some things? Like 9-11, did that change your view suddenly when that came in with a world
10:50view on what were the problems?
10:53Yeah, no, for sure. I mean, 9-11 was... I mean, people forget this, but at the time
10:58and for months and months afterwards, it turned the world on its axis.
11:03And you're quite frank when you say you were slow to realise until that happened.
11:09Yes, because, I mean, you had various... You had the growth of this sort of movement
11:16of terrorism based around perversion of Islam, frankly, but... And there were various events
11:23that were happening, but we weren't really joining the dots until 9-11 happened.
11:30One of the things that you point to for change is the embracing of innovation, of re-engineering
11:37government, reinventing the state in a different way. What does that mean?
11:46Well, it means... You know, if you look at the way the state has grown over time, I mean,
11:52the 19th century state was a pretty minimal state, certainly at the beginning of the century.
11:58You know, the state looked after defence, but not much else. There weren't public systems
12:03of health or education. We didn't have a police force in the UK until about the middle of
12:07the 19th century. So the state was a minimalist state. And then the Industrial Revolution,
12:13because it took with it enormous urbanisation, the whole way that people lived and worked
12:20and interacted with each other changed. You then grew the state, and in the 20th century
12:25the state became large. And today it's large, right? You know, it's eating up most countries
12:32well over 40% of GDP. My point is that we've reached the limits of that state. We're going
12:41through a technology revolution today, which is going to alter the relationship between
12:46the state and the citizen. And there's a whole range of things, services that the state provides,
12:54benefits that it pays, that should be done and organised completely differently because
12:58technology is going to allow us to do that. Is that happening?
13:01Well, it's starting to happen. But, you know, the big question I ask is, and this is a debate
13:06that the country, not just our country, but any developed, in fact, any country should
13:10have, is am I right when I say this is the 21st century equivalent of the Industrial
13:15Revolution? If you take the Industrial Revolution, you'd have to say by the end of the 19th century,
13:22life, never mind individual bits of the country and bits of economic production, life was
13:29completely different. And by the way, it gave rise to our political parties today. I mean,
13:36our political parties are still based on left-right distinctions around state and market and private
13:42enterprise and so on. And what I'm saying is this technology revolution is as important
13:51as the 19th century Industrial Revolution. And so it's going to change everything. So
13:56the big question, we should debate this, is if that's true, how do we access its opportunities
14:02and mitigate its risks? Because it's general purpose technology. So it's got as many downsides
14:07as it has upsides. And this is the big task for public policy. And for Britain, particularly,
14:14you know, we've got a strong position in artificial intelligence. We're probably after America
14:19and China number three in the world. Well, how do we keep that? And how do we grow it? How do we
14:22make sure in life sciences, for example, we're one of the, if not the best country in the world,
14:27because we've got the possibility of doing that. But it's frustrating to me that public debate
14:33doesn't really debate this question. So there could not be a better opportunity for this. You
14:39would be very pleased we have a Labour government. And what do you think they have got to do
14:47now? Not a commentary on the government, but just your view on where we need to go as a country.
14:53Put this at the centre of the whole mission for the government, because the growth and other
15:01missions that the government's setting out, all of these will be affected by technology. Even law
15:05and order, by the way, will be transformed by technology. Defence is transformed by technology
15:09today. If you look at the way the Ukraine war is being fought, you know, the lessons of change in
15:16military capability and military operation are vast. All this I get is a strategic thought and
15:22a plan and a priority. What comes across in the book is also its interaction with people. I mean,
15:27that's for me to be the key message. And you described there are two sorts of brain.
15:33Tell us about that and what your brain is like.
15:38Most of the people engaged in technology have got what I would call the sort of science brain. I
15:41mean, they're engineers, most of these people. And, you know, when people call them geeks,
15:45it's really because they're, you know, they've got that, you know, they're right in the zone of
15:51that. Not you. Not me. No, I'm on the more of the art side. And I think I say in the book, you know,
16:00my physics teacher was actually in awe of how bad my physics paper was. You failed?
16:07I failed miserably. And I've always found one of the things I do now is try and read more about
16:14science to try and understand it. But I am. I know my own brain, I have difficulty understanding
16:20science. And your son had a slightly different view on your ability to take in some of the
16:24technology. My oldest. When I asked my oldest son for advice on what to say to a cryptocurrency
16:33conference, he said to me, just tell them you're sick because you're not fit for prime time on this
16:38subject. Good decision. But I did address them actually, unfortunately. Making difficult decisions
16:48is a key part of leadership. And we've seen in recent years, Rishi struggle, Boris often not
17:00able to make a decision with any coherence. And there's Charles oblivious to it. When you look
17:08back on the 14 years of the Tories, do you see crucial leadership errors? The best way to describe
17:16it maybe is to say, in one point in the book, I say the right relationship between politics and
17:26policy is policy first and politics second. And what I mean by that is, you first of all work out
17:34the right answer. I mean, if you look at any of the leaders that have changed. I get the theory.
17:39I want to come on to just the literary, because the person who actually is in the chair of power
17:45matters. What happened in the last 14 years with the ideas? We basically had politics first and
17:50policy second. So you work out what's our political, what do we want to say politically?
17:56And then you construct a policy around it. And what you end up with doing, if you do that,
18:01is first of all, you end up changing the right order of things. You end up chasing after
18:09shifts in public opinion and responding to them rather than leading them. And you end up with
18:14short-term decisions that have no long-term coherence. Is that what happened? Yeah, I think
18:18that is what happened. What was the damage? Well, I think the damage in the end, the government,
18:24the best description of the damage is when when Kiir became prime minister in July. He was the
18:30sixth prime minister in eight years since the Brexit referendum. And you can't run a country
18:34like that. You can't succeed like that. How can you? When I ended my time in 2007, I was the third
18:40prime minister in almost 30. And there'd been a lot of continuity of policy. The other thing that
18:45I think is really important is it takes a long time to change a country. And we had, you know,
18:52I had a difficult decision to make about the degree to which I was going to undercut the Thatcher
18:58and John Major inheritance. And I decided that in terms of the economy, in terms of things like,
19:07you know, the reduction in the top rate of tax, the privatization of industries,
19:12the trade unions being put within a framework, I was going to leave that undisturbed, because I
19:18thought it was right for the economy, but we would rebuild the public realm and modernize the country
19:23around, you know, things like the minimum wage, gay rights, devolving power, mayor of London,
19:29and so on. So we had a very, the country ended up with pretty much almost 30 years of quite
19:36coherent policy towards business, which is one of the reasons why, you know, investment was strong.
19:40And on the day I left office, I think we were $2 to the pound. In the subsequent years, we zigzagged.
19:50With, you have three rules, which you take out as priorities, from your leadership and your
19:57continuing leadership of your institution. Being a strong American ally, being influential in Europe,
20:06and having international development as soft power for the UK. With the recent embargo on arms,
20:17and we've seen Canada do much more severe than us. Do you think you're an expert? You put yourself
20:24at the center of the Middle East to try to find a solution? How helpful is that?
20:29Well, you know, I will say to people, I'm not going to give a kind of running commentary on
20:34what they're doing. I don't want to get into individual decisions they've made,
20:37because that's for them to make. What I would say is that
20:44this American relationship remains, to me, absolutely critical. Now, I know a lot of people
20:48didn't like the decisions I took post 9-11 in respect of Afghanistan, or particularly in respect
20:53of Iraq. But I felt it was always important that we stayed as the closest American ally. And I still
20:59believe that's true. Secondly, obviously, in Europe, I think we're going to have to repair
21:07that relationship now. But at the moment, we've lost it. And international development, you know,
21:12Britain, I mean, the Department of International Development was, I think it was the best soft
21:17power arm in the world at the time in its heyday. And we've dismantled a lot of it. So again,
21:23you know, it's a big rebuilding job to do if you want to exercise power, and you've got to stay
21:27close to your allies. One of the things which you tell your children is about how to avoid
21:36potential failure by a priority in your life. Tell us about that.
21:43Well, the personal equivalent of policy first, politics second, I used to say to my children is,
21:52you know, work hard, play hard. Work hard, play hard, you've got a chance of success.
21:56Play hard, work hard, now you're probably going to fail. Because if play hard comes first,
22:03work hard. What was their reaction when you were telling them that?
22:07Like most of what I told them, they would ignore it completely. But I think it's true, by the way.
22:13So leadership within a family. Now, we're in a world of gender equality. What happens in
22:20leadership within a family? You've got a very impressive, legal minded wife. Who's the leader?
22:30That's definitely a joint leadership at best. Yeah, no, things change. I mean,
22:36funny enough, with the book, I mean, some people have said to me,
22:39it's interesting from a parent's point of view. And I guess some of the things are the same. But
22:45no, I think if the partnership in a personal sense is to work, it's got to be one of equals today.
22:52But part of the benefits of great leadership is continuing relationships with people who
23:01one works with, but also in one's personal life. You've had a very long, enduring,
23:10enduring, devoted marriage. What is the secret of that with trying to lead
23:16people to have that combination? I don't know, because I honestly don't know the answer to that.
23:21And the one thing I never do is to preach to people about personal lives. And, you know,
23:26I'm just like, I'm lucky with what I have. And I think I think the most important thing, actually,
23:32is in any relationship is that you respect the other person. Ultimately, you've got to,
23:37that respect's got to be maintained. I remember a particular intriguing incident where I saw
23:42Cherie show her influence. You and I were meeting Mikhail Gorbachev. And the conversation was
23:50having, looking at the political geo landscape. And suddenly she interrupted. And she said,
23:56gentlemen, none of you have mentioned anything to do with women. And she stopped us all.
24:04That sounds right.
24:07In the book, there isn't much mention of women. Is that just because you're assuming it's a
24:15equal leadership?
24:17Yeah, I guess. But you've reminded me, so you're going to get me into trouble now.
24:24No, it's look, I think we ended up with more women MPs than ever before. And I think more
24:30women in the cabinet. And the first time we had a female chief whip, female foreign secretary,
24:35I mean, and my institute today, by the way, there's, I think, a majority of women working
24:40for the institute and in senior leadership positions. So I think the best thing is not
24:45to talk about it, but to do it.
24:47How have you seen it change in the last 40 years?
24:50I think there is a big change. It's still got some way to go. And I find, you know,
24:59I mean, it's interesting with the institute, because it does have women in many of the
25:07senior positions. And I find working with women, it tends to be more collegiate. I think with men,
25:17I think ego is always a bigger factor.
25:22You talk, you're very good about saying how you don't bear crutches, and you see the
25:27goal rather than the human difficulties as your priority. With someone like Donald Trump,
25:34who is as unpredictable, and I want to come on to Putin in a minute, what will be your
25:42terms of engagement with him? And what would it mean for Britain, do you think, if we had
25:47someone of that ilk?
25:50Look, you don't get to choose another country's leader. So the important thing is to work with
25:56them and find the points of agreement and find the areas where you can work with them. And
26:00actually, I worked with the Trump administration and actually met Donald Trump in the context of
26:06the Abraham Accords between the UAE and Israel that I was working on, where we were working on
26:13the same path. And I think the most important thing for a British prime minister is you can't,
26:19when you're leading a country, you're not an NGO, and frankly, you're not a journalist,
26:24right? You're the leader, and you've got to engage with them in a position of leadership.
26:29And there are always things you can find, and you always should find, if you're a British
26:33prime minister dealing with an American president, where you can work together.
26:37One of the most surprising things in the book is when I think of Berlusconi with his bunga-bunga
26:42parties and his flamboyance and his billions. What did you gain from him for Britain?
26:49Well, it's something pretty big, actually, which is that he gave us the votes for the
26:54Olympic bid, which got us across the line in front of France. So we wouldn't have had the
26:582012 Olympics in the UK unless Italy had backed us, because I think the votes were very narrow
27:04in the end, and they were originally pledged to France.
27:07So how did that happen? Because your politics and his are markedly different.
27:10Yeah, they are, but I went to see him. I mean, there's always this line in the media that I
27:16went on holiday with Sylvie. I didn't go on holiday. I went to see him when I was on holiday
27:21in Italy. I went to see him in his place in Sardinia, and I had a relationship with him,
27:29because I'd always found him very straight to deal with. And I always say to people,
27:35after a time in politics, you speak as you find. You don't speak as other people tell you you
27:40should speak. And he said to me, because we were, I always treated him with respect, and some people
27:50were, frankly, always because of all the bunga bunga stuff and everything, didn't want to be
27:54seen with him. And he said to me, how much does it matter to you? And I said, it really matters to me.
28:00I really want to win this bid for Britain. So he said, okay, we'll switch the votes.
28:05And that was literally the factor which made it happen?
28:08Yeah, and he did. And that was the thing that I always say to people, look, there's no point,
28:12because some people say to me, can you mix with these people and go on with these people? I say,
28:17look, I'm just speaking as I find. I asked him for something. He said he would deliver,
28:23and he delivered. So I was pretty happy with that. Immigration, probably the greatest issue,
28:28which is dealing across the world. And you have not the solution, but a potential way to
28:36try and mitigate that. And that is digital identification cards. Is that going to solve it?
28:43It won't solve it, but it'll massively improve it. And it will solve one very, very important
28:48aspect. Because obviously, there's lots of debates about boat people and Calais and so on. But what
28:54we've got to understand is in any country, including ours, the biggest problem you have
29:00are large numbers of people, hundreds of thousands of people who are in our country or in any of
29:07modern Western country without permission to be here. They can come in, because you can come in
29:12a thousand different ways. But does that solve it? Because then you have courts which do or don't
29:16let them be sent back. Well, your sending back is another dimension. And that's why I say it doesn't
29:23solve all your problems. But it solves one problem, which is you know who's got a right to be here.
29:29And you can at least put people into a system where you may be able to return them. And privacy
29:33you go, doesn't matter? Well, privacy does matter. But the amount of information that a government
29:38would require for you to have your own digital identifier, which in the end is something you
29:43should own and will allow you to access government services and to conduct your private affairs.
29:49I think a younger generation of people is completely comfortable with this. And by the way,
29:53your local supermarket and Amazon, Netflix, you think of the amount of information they've got on
29:57you, which is probably as sensitive as anything the government will have. So what did Brexit do
30:02for immigration? Well, what we did, which is absolutely extraordinary, is we ended up stopping
30:08a whole lot of young, often single Europeans coming and working here in the hospitality sector.
30:14Now we've swapped out what were younger, usually single people coming in from Europe to work in
30:25our hospitality sector and other sectors, technology sector. And we swapped that for
30:30much increased immigration from Asia and Africa. So did Brexit increase immigration and not bring
30:36back control to the borders, as was famously promised? Well, that's been the result. I mean,
30:42I understand it wasn't the intention, but the result is we have higher levels of immigration
30:49and higher levels of people bringing dependents into the country. We just need to think how we
30:54repair the relationship. And then in time, we've got to think as a country of where do we fit in
30:59the world? I mean, one of the things that gives a country energy and appetite for facing all the
31:08challenges is that they know where they fit. And I constantly say to people, I say it in the book,
31:14by the middle of this century, you're going to have three superpowers that are each one of them
31:18more powerful than any of the other countries by a long way. You're going to have America,
31:24you're going to have China, and you're going to have India, probably India.
31:30All other countries are going to be small in comparison to any of these three. So if you're
31:34Germany or Italy or France or the UK, or you're Indonesia or the Philippines. So we're weakened?
31:41Yeah, there's no doubt we've weakened ourselves. We've just got to repair it.
31:44And by repairing it, does that mean having youth mobility? These are early steps?
31:50Personally, I think youth mobility within Europe would be a good thing for us. But, you know,
31:55the government's got to take a view of that. And it's clear that this government is going to be
32:00much more open to working with Europe. But you've got to take this step by step. And people,
32:05I don't think, want to go back and revisit the whole Brexit issue again.
32:09Certainly not in this time. Maybe in later times they do, but who knows?
32:15I said I'd come back to Putin. And you've met Putin, you've eyeballed him, you've been in
32:18meetings with him, you've negotiated with him. And you talk about how democracy will only work
32:24if it has an efficacy, if it provides a solution, and that dictatorships unravel. Was Ukraine
32:34the tipping point for Putin to show an unraveling of no one around him to stop him from damaging
32:41not only his country, but the rest of the world? It was an example of the dangers of dictatorship.
32:49I mean, there are regimes that aren't democracies, but where there is still
32:56a collegiate sense of working, and where leaders will still be open to challenge.
33:00You know, the people around them aren't frightened of saying, look, I don't think this is going to
33:05work. Is that gone? With Putin, I think it did go. I think he became very isolated.
33:11You didn't need a huge piece of intelligence work done by the Russian intelligence service
33:19to work out the Ukrainians were not going to accept this. You could just have gone to Ukraine
33:22and spoken to people. So was he a fool? What happened? Well, he believed that he could topple
33:28the government easily, and I think he misunderstood the lesson of Crimea. Is this delusion?
33:34Well, he did delude himself that he could do it easily, because we're now into the
33:41third year of the war. But it's still the one thing, though, that Putin also thinks,
33:47because this is what he believes as a result of what's happened with the West,
33:51is he thinks that he can always outlast the West, that the West lacks staying power. And one of the
33:56really important things the West has got to do is to provide evidence, and Ukraine is the test,
34:01that it's got staying power. Do you think there is a hope that there will be a solution
34:08for this terrible conflict? And hope is one of the themes which goes through your book?
34:13Yes, because I think in the end, everyone understands there's not going to be an end
34:17to this conflict that's similar to the end of the First World War or the Second World War.
34:23There will, in the end, be some form of agreement. And the important thing is that
34:28we strengthen Ukraine so that when that moment comes, when he realises he's not going to achieve
34:35his aim, that the Ukrainians can get a decent and sensible deal.
34:41Do you feel that you've got a huge experience of world politics, that we're at a point of
34:49maximum anxiety? Yes. I mean, I...
34:53Explain where you are. I think so, but I'm not entirely sure about it. But I'm struck by the
35:00number of people whose views I respect, who say we are almost in a pre-war period.
35:11I find it hard to believe that China, because if we ever end up with a major global conflict,
35:17it will almost certainly be as a result of the American-Chinese relationship deteriorating.
35:22I find it hard to believe that either America or China wants such a conflict.
35:30China's got such a massive interest in stability. But the fact is, what Ukraine did is it disturbed
35:38the conventional wisdom and changed the conventional wisdom. The big power conflict was over.
35:43And, you know, if you'd said to me in January 2022, do you think it's likely that
35:51Russia would try and topple the regime in Ukraine by military action? I would have said,
35:55no, I don't think so. I'm reading that. You're listening to people, you take
36:00views very seriously. You are anxious. No, I am anxious. I think you've got to be anxious,
36:08because there is a... You can see how, if the world splits into these camps at a certain point,
36:15you can see how there could be conflict. And you've got flashpoints like Taiwan and obviously
36:19what Putin's doing in Europe that could potentially lead to this. It's just that
36:24I still instinctively feel that the consequences of such a conflict would be so devastating,
36:32people won't do it. But I do think you've got to prepare for all eventualities. That's why I always
36:36say to people about China, because I'm completely opposed to disengaging from China. I think you've
36:42got to be strong enough to deal with whatever comes out of China, but stay engaged. One of
36:47your last chapters is about legacy and protection of legacy. This book is part of putting out
36:55the store of what you believe and what you've achieved. How important is it to protect your
37:01legacy? Well, I've got a chapter in the book that's about protecting your legacy. And I also
37:06admit that I've not been very good at protecting it. But in the end, I think you can do a certain
37:12amount to do it. And, you know, it helps, frankly, if you're able to build a body of
37:23adherence and constituency that is going to support you in it. But ultimately, you can't
37:28really decide it. And Iraq, is that ever going to become something which history will see as a
37:34positive, or do you think that is going to be perpetual? History is a long time in the making.
37:42And look, there may be different perspectives in time that come about on it. I mean, I think
37:50the most important thing for me at this juncture is just people to understand it's not all we did,
37:56because sometimes it suits people both on the far right and on the far left to say it is.
38:02If you had one message to leaders around the world, what they should be concentrating on now,
38:08and what are the key issues which they should be engaging with? Well, I suppose I'd say that's
38:13why I wrote the book, so you can go and see it. But I mean specific arenas. I think the most
38:19specific thing, if you're in government today, is to work out what this technology revolution can
38:24do for you, and to acquire the skills within government, because they'll come from the outside,
38:30not the inside, to be able to do that well. And I think for developed countries, it offers us a
38:37solution to this problem of either you end up with rising spending, rising tax, poor outcomes,
38:47or you're cutting back the whole time. But it's the centre which defines you,
38:53and you describe that you describe the conservatives have taken on a perversion
38:57of Thatcherism in the last few years, and a Euro-scepticism, which became extreme.
39:05And is it, again, what's your hope for the present government that they're going to do?
39:10I think the most important thing, I continue to think, is you win from the centre, and you should
39:15govern from the centre, not because it's splitting the difference between right and left, but because
39:20you're putting solutions first, and you're putting the policy first and the politics second.
39:25Final question, is democracy safer or more at risk at this moment in time?
39:32I think democracy is deeply challenged at this moment in time,
39:36but I still think it will ultimately prevail.