Ilkay Gundogan was Pep Guardiola's first signing back in 2016, fast forward to 2024 and he may well be Pep Guardiola's final signing too. As poetic as it may seem, there's also plenty of legitimate reasons as to why Gundogan is making his return. He fixes a number of Manchester City's midfield issues...
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00:00Hello everybody, Adam Monk here again, back with another fairly unscripted video this
00:10one, because you might be aware that the transfer window is still open. Yes, the Premier League
00:14season has started and there's been some pretty steady results so far. Chelsea, of course,
00:21losing, but winning in the transfer market, you could maybe argue. I mean, if winning
00:26was measured by the amount of here we goes or there we lands now that you get through
00:31the door, because I don't, I mean, I could do a whole video on, I don't know what's going
00:37on there. But I wanted to focus on a more sensible club, Manchester City. Again, you
00:41could argue they're not set 115 charges. Sensible in the sense that their off-field decisions
00:46usually lead to on-field success. They've got a good infrastructure and speaking of
00:50which they've made another decision, which I never thought they would as a City fan myself,
00:57and that is to bring back Ilkay Gundogan. Now, you don't really need me to overly analyse
01:05or overly explain why Ilkay Gundogan will perform in a Manchester City shirt unless
01:10you are like the age of two. In which case, if you are the age of two, by the way, and
01:15you're watching this video, how did you get here? And why did you get here? If you want
01:19to, I mean, by all means, enjoy the content, but the kids' content is here. It's a very
01:26rare thing for Pep to do. I can't name many players that he's had previously and then
01:30brought back. He usually sells them and then that's it. Usually because he's just fallen
01:35out with them and thinks they're a despicable human being or they're just surplus to requirements.
01:39But Gundogan clearly is an exemption to that rule. It's really bad news for other fans
01:43as well, to be honest, because Ilkay Gundogan, honestly, is the only player who I've ever
01:47seen where he gets to the final 10 games of the season and like a game of FIFA, he
01:51just sort of turns his sliders up and becomes essentially the best midfielder on planet
01:57Earth. And at the age of 34, I'm hoping he can probably do that again. All right then.
02:02So reason number one why Ilkay Gundogan will likely be a success at City this season is
02:05because Rodri may well die this season. Of course, I mean that figuratively, not literally,
02:11but the guy has literally played about 75 games in back to back seasons because Calvin
02:16Phillips, Calvin Phillips, he's not exactly been given reinforcements, let's just say
02:22that. Now, when Ilkay Gundogan left Manchester City, a lot of Manchester City fans were saying,
02:26well, the natural replacement now is our new number eight, Matteo Kovacic. Stylistically
02:31though, profile wise, I think they've got similar attributes, but also some big differences.
02:37Now, Kovacic did play at number six at the base of that midfield three at Stamford Bridge
02:42for Manchester City, and he was one of the best players, if not man of the match, in
02:45my opinion, in that game, especially scoring that goal in the second half where he drove
02:50from deep past Enzo and Kai Sedo, the players who replaced him at Chelsea, to score a goal
02:55that Robert Sanchez should have saved. Now, that goal itself typified the difference,
02:59in my opinion, between Matteo Kovacic and Ilkay Gundogan when playing at the base of
03:03that midfield in that sixth position. And that difference is Kovacic likes to carry
03:08the ball more, Gundogan is a bit more of a dictator of play, and he likes to arrive late
03:12into the box to score his goals. Exemplified here when comparing the two players, now,
03:17this is Kovacic last season for Manchester City versus Ilkay Gundogan for Manchester
03:21City the season before when he was in the team. Here are the respective heat maps, and
03:25overall, pretty similar. Gundogan a little bit more all action, especially in the offensive
03:31burden, you know, a little bit more action out wide as well. But overall, they play pretty
03:36similar roles. Now, onto the attacking comparison, this is really no surprise. Gundogan with
03:41more goals by seven, more expected goals, more goals per game, and also you can just
03:46see Gundogan takes more shots, there's more shots off target there to Kovacic's, and more
03:50shots on target that result in the ball going in the onion bag. So Gundogan is more of an
03:55attacking threat. We know this, we have watched him play. Creatively as well, Gundogan wiping
04:00the floor with Kovacic's four assists, 4.39 expected assists, six big chances created
04:05to Kovacic's three. 1.9 long balls per 90, which I think is a big difference to Matteo
04:11Kovacic. He's obviously more proactive with the ball, looking for those switch balls out
04:14wide, which Rodri, of course, likes to play when we used to have Riyad Mahrez out there,
04:19usually switched over to the likes of Jack Grealish as well. Kovacic doesn't really like
04:23to play those passes. He's a lot more intricate and incisive. He prefers to play those short
04:27passes and little combinations than switching the play. And crosses as well, showing that
04:32Ilkay Gundogan isn't really afraid to get into those wide areas too. And then defensively,
04:36what you'd also want in a six, well, Kovacic kind of, in my opinion, comes out on top.
04:401.2 tackles per 90, and he also gets dribbled past less as well. So, you know, you could
04:45make a case here to say that maybe Kovacic is a better six than Ilkay Gundogan and therefore
04:50the better supplement to Rodri, but I kind of disagree with that. Where I think the difference
04:54between the two and Kovacic's weakness lies in that sixth position is actually what I
04:57alluded to a minute ago when I talked about that goal he scored on the weekend at Stamford
05:01Bridge. It was a very, very good goal, but Kovacic likes to carry the ball. Ilkay Gundogan
05:06doesn't. So last season in terms of progression, 5.80 progressive passes and 2.15 progressive
05:13carries per 90, which put him in the top 24% or higher of midfielders in the Premier League
05:20last season. Now this is all well and good, but Manchester City's biggest weakness defensively
05:23last season, especially when Rodri wasn't playing. The biggest weakness without Rodri
05:27is that City constantly got hit in transition and conceded an awful lot of chances through
05:32that last season. And a lot of the time that came from the six, whether it be Mateo Kovacic
05:37or the rare occasion where Calvin Phillips played, being simply not in position and caught
05:42out of position when City were dispossessed. Ilkay Gundogan does not bring that when he
05:46plays in the six. He's very, very positionally disciplined. He's not as physical as Rodri,
05:49but he's not a player who's ever really relied on his physicality. So against certain sides,
05:53the less physical sides, those sides you'll play at home when there's 10 behind the ball,
05:57Gundogan could be a great fit at the base of that midfield to give Rodri a rest. And
06:02the last time he did this was about five years ago, towards the tail end of the 18-19 season.
06:07You'll remember that one where Liverpool and City went toe to toe, both winning, I think
06:10it was like 14 games on the bounce. And Fernandinho actually got quite a bad injury towards the
06:16end of the season. So Ilkay Gundogan played at the base of midfield for a lot of those
06:20games when City went on that winning run, and he was absolutely superb there. So I have
06:24no doubts if City use Gundogan sparingly, especially given his age, that he can fill
06:28that void and stop City conceding so many chances in transition.
06:32Reason number two why Ilkay Gundogan will also be a good fit for City is actually related
06:36to a video I made last week, if you watched it on Savino. And that video, basically the
06:40crux of it was that Pep can now revert back to two old systems, that direct one with those
06:45direct wingers on their strong-footed sides, Doku and Savio. Doku on the right, Savio on
06:49the left. Or he can also play a false nine now, given the stylistic similarity between
06:54Savino and Riyad Mahrez. But to play a false nine, you need a false nine. And who was City's
07:00best ever false nine when Haaland wasn't here? Well, it was Ilkay Gundogan. He was City's
07:05top scorer in the 2021 season, playing from false nine with 13 goals in the Premier League
07:10and two assists. And two assists is quite an anomaly for Ilkay Gundogan. That's because
07:14he was playing that high up the pitch, almost as a focal point. And I mean that to the extreme.
07:20You might remember this goal here against Tottenham Hotspur. Ederson absolutely lumping
07:23it up the length of the pitch. And look who's there, almost as a target man. Sit down Davinson
07:27Sanchez, I think it was, for this goal. But again, you don't really see Gundogan doing
07:32this very often. And he certainly didn't in any other season for Manchester City. But
07:36as we know, he also likes to arrive late in the box and has got that sense for goal as
07:40well as shown by this goal here against Aston Villa. I just wanted to put this one in the
07:45video, to be honest. But the point is, and I don't need to overdo it, he fills that void
07:49and can play false nine. And then that also allows you to carry on playing Foden in his
07:53favoured position in that number eight now, or Kevin De Bruyne as well. So Ilkay Gundogan
07:58fits that role like a glove as well as he does the number six. And of course, and I'm
08:02not even going to touch on this because we're not stupid on this channel, are we? Ilkay
08:06Gundogan can play the eight position as well. So this also helps Kevin De Bruyne in terms
08:10of an age factorisation thing as well, where you can simply rotate both of them and make
08:15sure that neither of them get injured or overplayed or overworked. So it just it completely works
08:20for a year deal. And yeah, that leads me on to my other point. It's a year deal, most
08:24likely, which buys City time, not only in the courtroom, but also in the transfer market.
08:29Because, for instance, City might look to bring in someone like Adam Wharton. This is
08:32just speculation next summer when he's a bit more available on the market. So it fills
08:37that void for now. It makes a lot of sense, especially when it's a free transfer and it's
08:42a player who, you know, has been here, done it and fits like a glove. Anyway, guys, yes,
08:46that is my quick little video on the little known footballer called Ilkay Gundogan. I
08:50didn't have to go into too much detail because you know how good he is and who he is. He's
08:53not some player from a mystical league who we've never heard of, who I've got to dissect
08:58by watching 800 minutes off on some 240p YouTube compilation. No, we know who this
09:03bloke is. And also, if you're a fan of Arsenal, maybe or Liverpool or any other big club,
09:07does this worry you? Does it strengthen City? I certainly think it does. Let me know in
09:11the comments down below. And of course, guys, don't forget to subscribe. We really, really
09:16appreciate that. The new edition of the Mag, if you'd like to buy it, is around here as
09:19well. It's the big season preview, although the season's started now. There's a new one
09:23coming out soon. But if you love 442 and have just forgot to buy the Mag, then it's
09:28still here. I've been Adam Monk, though, guys. Take care. I'll see you very, very soon, hopefully
09:32for another transfer video. I think from what I'm being told as well, that Manchester City
09:36might sign a striker, which would negate my false nine point. But for now, I'm just going
09:41to pretend that I'm not hearing these things and we're just going to we're just going to
09:44run with it. And if that's not a true story, I think it's a great story. So we'll just
09:48go with it anyway. Anyway, guys, yes, take care. Have a lovely day. I will see you soon.
09:52Goodbye.
09:53Transcribed by https://otter.ai