Panorama 2020 E11
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00:00It's been a week like no other.
00:05Now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others.
00:11Coronavirus has changed life in Britain for the foreseeable future.
00:16COVID-19 is real, it's here, we're already seeing patients turning up who are very unwell.
00:21Incredibly high temperatures, sweating profusely.
00:26It's going to be up to all of us to keep it in check.
00:30Members of the public should have a moral responsibility.
00:33Healthcare professionals are quite literally putting their lives on the line.
00:37Now there are big questions about whether the NHS can cope.
00:42This is an unprecedented public health crisis.
00:45I absolutely know this hospital will move heaven and earth to try to meet that demand.
00:50Has the government done enough, fast enough, to save lives?
00:54I have no idea if the patients I see have coronavirus or not.
00:58Panorama has been following events in the week that changed Britain.
01:04This is the Royal Victoria Infirmary in Newcastle.
01:26Johnson's first confirmed case of COVID-19, caused by coronavirus, was treated here.
01:34Just tie it like this, yeah.
01:42Like this?
01:44Ms Telford, good morning.
01:46I'm Dr Gimson, one of the consultants.
01:48Today they've tested another patient for coronavirus.
01:52Ms Telford arrived complaining of a cough and fever.
01:56So you're aware we've taken a test for COVID-19, the coronavirus?
02:00Uh-huh, uh-huh.
02:01Over the next 24 hours we'll have that test result back.
02:04When I came home I felt really rough, like, you know, and I started to shake and I thought,
02:10oh, it's worrying us a little bit here, you know.
02:14At the moment we're treating anyone who presents in hospital as an emergency.
02:19If they have respiratory symptoms, as if they may have COVID-19.
02:23And then we isolate all those patients if they need to stay in hospital.
02:27In Newcastle they think this is the calm before the storm.
02:31I think we're behind the wave.
02:34We're absolutely predicting that, you know, this time next week the picture will be completely changed for us in Newcastle
02:41and we can continue to feel pressured then for what we know is weeks and months, potentially.
02:48Nearly 6,000 people in the UK have now tested positive for coronavirus.
02:55All of them, and the thousands more who think they might have it, have been asked by the government to self-isolate.
03:02We've asked some of them to send us their video diaries from quarantine.
03:09I started getting a shortness of breath, coughing a bit.
03:14Incredibly high temperatures, sweating profusely, head feels like it's in a vice.
03:21In my back a kind of burning sensation, my breathing has been affected.
03:29My throat was so painful and come the evening I was finding it really hard to breathe.
03:34It felt like my lung couldn't fill properly with oxygen.
03:37You feel as though you're getting better and then it comes back again and I'm still in that cycle, even on day eight.
03:44Infectious diseases expert Sir Jeremy Farrar is one of a group of scientists advising the government.
03:51Probably about 80%, 8 out of 10 people will have a very, very mild infection or a flu-like syndrome
03:58where they feel, yes, ill for a few days but then make a complete recovery.
04:03And then about 20% or so that will require some degree of hospital care
04:08and then maybe a third of those would require intensive care.
04:13It's a huge range of infection and in some ways it allows the virus to spread in the community almost undetected.
04:20For a very small percentage of those who catch it, coronavirus can leave them fighting for their lives.
04:29More than 300 people have now died in the UK.
04:3452-year-old Kimberley Finlayson died after testing positive for coronavirus while on holiday in Bali.
04:42Everybody I know, and we knew a lot of people, no one's met someone like Kimberley.
04:46She's so generous and giving.
04:50On her way to Bali three weeks ago, Kimberley fell ill.
04:55What started as a temperature and mild breathing difficulties deteriorated
05:00and she ended up in a local hospital.
05:03This spectre of coronavirus started coming in at hospital
05:08and they isolated her from all the other patients in her room
05:15and we had to gown up every time we saw Kimberley.
05:21Doctors operated to help her breathe.
05:26I could hear chaos and pandemonium and I peeked through
05:30and I could actually see the CPR and Kimberley trying to resuscitate her.
05:34But it was way too late and Kimberley unfortunately died.
05:39I can't even really imagine what was going through your mind.
05:44I just kissed Kimberley's forehead, I spoke to her.
05:51I just said goodbye.
05:59And there was nothing else that I could do.
06:05It's nearly two weeks since Ken's wife died.
06:09He's still quarantined in their Bali hotel room.
06:13People need to consider the issues of safety
06:19and the protocols that are being issued by government
06:24to prevent them getting it in the first place
06:27because it's a horrendous thing to happen to you.
06:35The deadly coronavirus pandemic began last December
06:39in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
06:43China's response was drastic.
06:50The draconian measures that came in
06:53meant putting Wuhan over the course of a few days and then weeks,
06:57essentially Wuhan in quarantine.
07:00Those measures were extraordinary.
07:03In modern times, I don't think there's been a parallel at all.
07:08Mobile phone footage soon showed bodies in makeshift morgues.
07:14There have now been 81,000 positive cases in China
07:18and more than 3,000 deaths.
07:24China was able to get on top of the outbreak
07:27through this rapid action
07:29and then they were able to reduce it and contain it
07:33and now it's pretty well contained.
07:35If you wait and outbreaks build up through transmission in the community,
07:40the containment becomes much, much harder.
07:46From China, coronavirus spread across the world.
07:50Now Italy is the hotspot.
07:55The whole country is in lockdown.
07:59Italy's experience tells us much about what we in Britain might expect.
08:06Can you see me, Frank?
08:08Yes, I can see you.
08:09Dr Frank Rasullo works in one of Italy's leading hospitals
08:13in a city called Brescia.
08:15The past few days we had almost 600, 650 Covid-positive patients.
08:21Last week it was reported Brescia had more new infections
08:26and more deaths in a single day than anywhere else in the world.
08:30We have patients obviously on ventilators
08:33and all the patients here are on mechanical ventilation, they're intubated.
08:38What's it like as a doctor dealing with patients,
08:41this number and this constantly moving and difficult situation?
08:45It is, I could speak for my colleagues also, absolutely overwhelming.
08:50Dr Rasullo says Britain needs to learn lessons from Italy's experience.
08:56What you have in your favour is that you have been warned
09:00and if there is definitely one possible factor
09:06that being warned of what can actually develop and what can actually happen,
09:11I'm sure that things can be contained.
09:15I think the UK is still a few weeks behind where Italy is now.
09:19We would all be guessing how many weeks,
09:22but I think everybody must be under no illusion,
09:25this will spread throughout the UK.
09:28This virus is so infectious for such a protracted period of time
09:33that inevitably it will spread through essentially every community.
09:37It's six o'clock on Friday the 13th of March.
09:40The headlines this morning,
09:41the government is facing questions over whether its latest measures
09:45to stop the spread of the coronavirus go far enough.
09:49Draconian measures were being taken in China, Italy and elsewhere.
09:53In the UK, the government had said its response would be led by the science.
09:59It's absolutely critical in managing the spread of this virus
10:04that we take the right decisions at the right time
10:08based on the latest and best evidence.
10:16It was crucial to find out just who'd been infected by testing.
10:25At a GP surgery in Stockton-on-Tees,
10:28Dr David Hodges now has to protect himself when seeing patients.
10:34Patients will be brought straight into the corona room.
10:37At the start of the outbreak,
10:39people who thought they'd been in contact with coronavirus
10:42were offered a test.
10:44We isolate them and then we get kitted up,
10:46so we put the masks on, put a protective apron on, gloves on, hands washed.
10:52Then as numbers grew, testing was focused on hospital patients
10:57and that caused problems for medics on the front line.
11:02It's very challenging at the moment.
11:04I have no idea if the patients I see have coronavirus or not.
11:07Are you worried testing is not going on,
11:09and particularly for health workers?
11:11Absolutely. I think we need to know how much coronavirus is in our community.
11:15I might be doing all of this and we have very few cases,
11:18or actually we might have hundreds of cases we're missing.
11:21Doctors, nurses, anyone working in health and social care,
11:24if they get symptoms, they need rapid testing
11:27so that they can either get back to work
11:29or we know that they are definitely needing to self-isolate.
11:33While some NHS staff were tested, most were not.
11:37It began to be a problem across the entire health service.
11:41We are facing another crisis within the NHS
11:44in that we may be losing parts of the workforce
11:47because we cannot yet confirm whether or not
11:50they are having symptoms consistent with coronavirus.
11:53We ended up with seven doctors down.
11:56We have an average of about 18 doctors part-time at our practice
11:59and seven were not there.
12:02Late last week, with both infections and deaths rising,
12:06the government announced mass testing.
12:09We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now
12:15and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day to 10,000 to 25,000
12:20and then up to 250,000.
12:23Panorama understands that right now
12:26the NHS can do around 10,000 tests per day.
12:32We can see now that they have ramped up for mass testing
12:36and we're now building up relatively slowly
12:40compared to some other countries from a low base.
12:43So too little and too late on testing?
12:46I would say yes, a little bit too late, too little and too late.
12:50Staff here are saying they can't get tested,
12:52although the government has promised that.
12:54I mean, how critical is that for them to be tested?
12:58In a war, it's your military
13:01that are your absolute vital element of fighting.
13:05In this battle, it's an epic struggle, really, against the coronavirus.
13:10An unseen enemy, the health workers are right at the heart of the response
13:15because we need them in this fight more than any other community.
13:20Now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others
13:26and to stop all unnecessary travel.
13:31We need people to start working from home where they possibly can.
13:37It was a confusing time for the British public.
13:40Adults asked to work from home
13:43while their children were still going to school.
13:47Caroline English oversees secondary schools
13:50for the Harris Federation in London.
13:54Can you please confirm that you've not been to any of these places first?
13:58OK, no, I've not been to any of those.
14:01OK, great.
14:03Caroline's schools are still open,
14:06but she doesn't know for how much longer.
14:09So she's making plans for her most vulnerable pupils.
14:13We're just going to go into the boardroom,
14:15where they'll be having their mini Cobra meetings,
14:18to discuss what's next.
14:22We've got to look after the children.
14:24We've got children who are in various different stages
14:27of the children's services system.
14:29We've got our core group of probably about 80 students
14:32who are very vulnerable who we will be contacting daily
14:35with key workers that they know to check that they're OK.
14:38OK, all the children will get their free school meal?
14:41The one I thought was best was the £10 voucher for a meal deal,
14:44and then they got a free fruit as well.
14:46The government was hoping we'd all do the right thing
14:50without being forced to.
14:52You should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres,
14:57and other such social venues.
15:00We are a mature and grown-up and liberal democracy,
15:05where people understand very clearly
15:08the advice that is being given.
15:11The government's been criticised for sending mixed messages,
15:15and faced with a request, not an order,
15:18many ignored it, putting lives at risk.
15:21I was initially frustrated, but in the end angry,
15:25to see people wandering the streets,
15:28sitting in cafes, sitting in bars, sitting in pubs.
15:31I think that the knowledge that healthcare professionals
15:36are quite literally putting their lives on the line
15:39should really mean that members of the public
15:42should have a moral responsibility.
15:45Across the NHS, it was becoming increasingly clear
15:48what a threat the virus is.
15:51Yesterday I had to call about 35 patients,
15:54and I would say probably about 10 of those had symptoms
15:58that possibly could be suspected COVID-19.
16:01COVID-19 is real, it's here.
16:03We're already seeing patients turning up who are very unwell,
16:06who are needing to go to ITU,
16:09and that number seems to be increasing day by day.
16:15We have never faced a situation like this before.
16:18This is an unprecedented public health crisis.
16:22We don't want to so panic, but we are afraid.
16:27And I would say that there is a lot of hope.
16:30The things that I've seen my colleagues achieve in the past week
16:34have been extraordinary.
16:39Care homes were also reacting to the threat.
16:42In Newcastle, many began to introduce
16:45their own safeguards for vulnerable people.
16:50So, Lucy, we're standing outside your care home.
16:53Why can't we go in?
16:55So we operate in the event of a breakout.
16:57We close our doors to visitors, to the external world.
17:00It's only people that are absolutely necessity
17:03from a medical point of view or a supporting relative point of view
17:06that can come through our front door.
17:08I think these guys are going to be doing...
17:10What are you going to be doing, playing cards?
17:12We're going to be playing some cards in the fresh air.
17:15It wasn't safe for us to film inside,
17:18so Lucy agreed to take in a small camera.
17:21So we're going to be making some shortbread, yes?
17:23Across two care homes, there are nearly 300 residents and staff.
17:28They have no idea how long they'll have to remain in isolation.
17:33To Maxine, lots of love and happiness from Tom.
17:37Although we are apart, we are together for always.
17:40Love, Tom. Oh, that is beautiful.
17:43At the moment, we are keeping everyone lively, everyone upbeat.
17:46There's loads of stuff going on inside.
17:48You've made my day.
17:50The real British spirit of let's all keep together, carry on
17:53and get through this, keep this at bay, is absolutely phenomenal.
17:59As the government began to ramp up its response,
18:02many people feared they might have to self-isolate.
18:06Supermarket shelves began to empty.
18:09Long queues have been seen at supermarkets,
18:11despite appeals for people to shop normally.
18:14This morning, I get here at 5.30 and the queue was, like, long.
18:20We need only three things, like milk, water and some potatoes, that's all.
18:26I didn't think that we were such a nation of shoppers.
18:29That, I guess, is the mentality at the moment.
18:33Despite reassurances, up and down the country,
18:36toilet rolls and pasta became precious commodities.
18:41Supermarkets began rationing.
18:44And that caused problems for some of the most vulnerable in society.
18:50This food bank in Newcastle is worried about supplies.
18:55I'm Jane. Hi, Jane. How are you doing?
18:58How are you doing? Nice to meet you.
19:00When we buy food, we don't need one or two tins.
19:03We have to buy boxes.
19:05We have to buy boxes.
19:07We have to buy boxes.
19:09When we buy food, we don't need one or two tins.
19:12We have to buy boxes of tomatoes or soups or tinned veg.
19:17And you can't do that at the minute
19:19because of the limitations from the stores.
19:21So that potentially could hit us going forward.
19:25And that could affect couples like Lee and Samantha.
19:29It's my lifeline, basically, at the moment.
19:32Yeah, it is. It's my lifeline.
19:34Due to the poverty around you, people are reliant on this place.
19:38No-one takes privacy in that boat.
19:40It's true. Yeah.
19:44It's a perfect storm in many ways.
19:46People will be losing their jobs.
19:48The demand and need for assistance in terms of food will increase.
19:52It's hard to forecast where things might go in the future.
20:00The government said the measures they were introducing
20:03were dictated by the science.
20:05They were saying that the outbreak could affect many thousands.
20:09But then the numbers got scary.
20:11New data suggested hundreds of thousands might die.
20:15Based on data from China, Italy and elsewhere,
20:18we assessed the severity of this virus
20:21and showed that really we'd expect about 1% of people infected dying.
20:26We were projecting at least 250,000 deaths.
20:30And that's over the entire course of the epidemic.
20:34Equally importantly for the functioning of the country,
20:38we were predicting that we would need up to 40,000 ICU beds...
20:44Intensive care, that is.
20:46..in the peak week of the epidemic.
20:48And that's eight times more
20:50than the NHS had previously been thinking they could surge to.
20:54The scientists said that if we introduced much tougher measures,
20:58it might be possible to reduce the predicted deaths to around 20,000.
21:05We think now that we must apply further downward pressure
21:10on that upward curve by closing the schools.
21:18At the Harris Academy Bermondsey in London,
21:21Year 11 pupils have just been told they're being sent home
21:26and don't know when school might start again.
21:29I cried. When I heard the news, I actually started crying.
21:33I was confused. I was like, what? I couldn't believe it.
21:37This is the last day of Year 11.
21:39They can't be out of learning for five months.
21:42We'll end up with children dropping out of school,
21:45not being able to re-engage properly.
21:47So we need to give them a purpose
21:49and a sense of what's next really quickly.
21:51The government also said GCSE exams would be cancelled.
21:57We saw our teachers cry as well. Yeah.
22:00Like, you've never seen them cry.
22:03Psychologically, this is a big thing.
22:06Five years' worth of work, suddenly their purpose is all gone
22:10and we know that purpose is really important for everybody.
22:13On the day schools closed,
22:16another major change to the fabric of British society.
22:22We are collectively telling, telling cafes, pubs,
22:26bars and restaurants to close.
22:31Tonight, as soon as they reasonably can,
22:34and not to open tomorrow.
22:40Britain learnt a new phrase, social distancing.
22:44It came with a massive economic cost as millions stayed at home,
22:49thousands laid off or forced to take unpaid leave.
22:56The strategy we have adopted, which I completely agree with,
23:00is going to change this country for decades to come
23:03and generate costs that our children will be repaying.
23:10Three patients died at the Royal Victoria Infirmary
23:13in Newcastle this weekend.
23:16They're preparing for a surge in the rate of infections locally.
23:22So this is one of your ICU bays, as it were?
23:25Yeah. This to the left here is a ventilator.
23:28This is the device that we'd be using to support a patient's breathing.
23:32The hospital has increased the number of beds with ventilators
23:36fivefold to 100.
23:38It's undoubtedly daunting.
23:40I think if we can meet a challenge that we don't know what is,
23:44but I certainly feel comfortable that we can go well above
23:47and beyond our usual capacity and I absolutely know
23:50this hospital will move heaven and earth to try to meet that demand.
23:55We are working on worst-case scenarios.
23:57This week, we've stopped all non-urgent surgery.
24:01We're literally emptying out.
24:03I mean, all of the services are stood down.
24:07All our energy is focused on that high-end critical care,
24:10ventilated patients.
24:12Just let's be clear, this is unprecedented, it's very serious.
24:18And, you know, we're going to have to try and work through it
24:22in stages.
24:25And it's now clear that the peak of the epidemic is coming faster
24:31in some parts of the country than in others,
24:34and it looks as though London is now a few weeks ahead.
24:39As the number of deaths from Covid-19 rises,
24:43so too does the number of critically ill,
24:46including some medical staff.
24:50There is no doubt that as healthcare professionals
24:53in the front line, we are exposed to increased risk
24:57and we're starting to see that permeating through colleagues
25:01that we know of.
25:03I certainly know of colleagues now who have ended up,
25:07unfortunately, being ventilated.
25:10To defeat the virus,
25:12Britain could be facing almost total indefinite lockdown.
25:16How and when we can return to normal
25:19is likely to be informed by what happens next in China.
25:23There hasn't been a new infection in Wuhan in the last five days.
25:30It's enormously important that we watch and learn
25:33from what Wuhan is doing, because as they lift those restrictions,
25:36there is a very big possibility they will go into a second wave
25:40and the epidemic will return,
25:42maybe less than the first wave, but nevertheless return.
25:47Right now, scientists are in a race against time
25:51to develop a coronavirus vaccine.
25:55This is the first version of our prototype vaccine
25:59that we're evaluating.
26:01Professor Robin Shattuck is leading a team of British scientists
26:05that says a vaccine could be a year away.
26:10We predict that with the right funding,
26:13we'll be able to be conducting early clinical trials
26:16by the beginning of the summer.
26:18But that's a way away, considering that there's an epidemic.
26:21Right, but you have to remember
26:23that we're doing this faster than it's done before,
26:26and the most important thing is to make sure that a vaccine is safe.
26:32That could mean we're living with COVID-19
26:35for at least another 12 months.
26:37I'd say on the most part we're feeling maybe apprehensive,
26:42but have faith that we'll be ready if or when it gets worse.
26:50And following the government guidance on social isolation,
26:53you will really be helping your NHS
26:56to deal with the pressures that are going to face us.
26:59It's so important that we work together to beat this pandemic.
27:03The last week has seen the most dramatic restrictions
27:06on everyday life ever imposed in peacetime,
27:10and it's likely to get worse.
27:12The scientists say it can work, so long as we all do our bit.
27:18The front line is in the streets.
27:21The virus cannot replicate without a host,
27:24and if we avoid face-to-face contact,
27:27it's going to get worse.
27:29The virus cannot replicate without a host,
27:32and if we avoid face-to-face contact, we will starve that virus.
27:36It's in our hands.
27:38Small actions by each one of us
27:41add up to an incredible response by the world.
27:44It's not just governments, it's people who will do this.
27:51As Britain enters another week of uncertainty,
27:54and our battle against COVID-19 begins a new phase.
27:59The generation who lived through the Second World War
28:02have a message for us all.
28:29For more UN videos visit www.un.org