Government to cap number of new foreign students to 270,000 next years
The Federal Government is proposing to cap the number of international students newly enrolling in courses at 270 thousand for next year.
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00:00In general, our view is it's a blunt instrument that's going to have an impact in different
00:07ways across a really important sector.
00:09And every dollar that we earn from international students, we reinvest either into our domestic
00:14students or our research effort, and that's certainly the situation at QUT.
00:19And this will impact on us both in terms of our current operations, which we're still
00:24not back in the black after the pandemic, but also in our future plans.
00:29So it's still going to be really tough.
00:32I do want to talk to you mainly as the UA deputy chair, but since you mentioned your
00:39other role, Margaret, does QUT have its figure yet?
00:45If so, would you share it with us?
00:47Or if not, its impact on your particular institution?
00:50Yeah, sure.
00:51So we got...
00:52Everyone was provided with a draft number, I think, you know, for checking this morning
00:56as well, alongside the overall numbers.
01:00So in general, the universities have not been hit as hard by this as the vet sector.
01:07And to the extent to which it impacts, it's a really complicated formula, depending on
01:12where you were in 2019, how much you've grown since 2023, and your overall percentage of
01:19international students.
01:20But my university, big domestic cohort, a smaller but still significant international
01:26cohort, it will impact on our capacity to support all those students.
01:30And we will have to be making some very tough decisions.
01:33And I think all my colleagues are in that same position, and to a lesser or greater
01:38extent depending on where they were at at the time.
01:41So why don't we broaden it out?
01:42Because in the one page statement that Universities Australia has put out, much is made about
01:48the direct and indirect economic costs that will come with the caps.
01:54What do you say they will be across the sector in terms of on-campus job losses in particular,
02:02be it on the academic staff or elsewhere on campus?
02:04Look, it's really hard to put an absolute number in that, but it is going to be substantial.
02:11I know that, and it impacts not just on us, but it impacts on the students that we support
02:18and the services we can offer, but also those around the university campuses.
02:24So the accommodation providers, the small businesses that rely on labour from international
02:29students in that job market.
02:32And so there's a whole range of impacts that we saw during the pandemic, and some of them
02:37will be mirrored with this lessening of demand.
02:43And in particular, we started to see that already with the ministerial visa directive,
02:48which came into place early this year.
02:51But for me, that has meant that we've frozen positions, that we've started to look at areas
02:58that we can downsize, and everybody's in that same situation.
03:01It will have a big impact.
03:03So in the case of QUT, and I'm sorry to jump around between your dual roles here, Margaret
03:08Shield, but in the specific case of QUT, what is the reduction in the draft number that's
03:14been communicated to you today, the reduction between your 2023 figure and what you're being
03:20handed today?
03:23So it's a complicated formula, but it's about, for us, about 10%.
03:32But the bigger concern for us is that we had plans to grow.
03:36So we've invested in engineering, which is in huge demand internationally, and we're
03:40really strong at.
03:41And we started to form the partnerships and the arrangements to grow that.
03:46Because we've historically had a low percentage, so we're only around 15% international, it's
03:52really impacted on our future growth, but also the investments that we're making in
03:58some of those areas.
03:59We'll have to either scale back or do something differently.
04:02Okay.
04:03Now, there will be, I imagine, a divergence of views among member universities at UA.
04:10Do you acknowledge that there will be winners as well as losers in the way this has been
04:15set up?
04:16Look, I think there are, because of the way it's been set up, but there are not too many
04:23winners, I think.
04:25But because international students don't choose to, they're in an international market.
04:31So if the University of Queensland or QUT's cap, then the students are not necessarily
04:37going to go to another Queensland university, they might go overseas, and that applies across
04:41the sector.
04:42So I think what we all were seeking was certainty, and also the way the visa, the Immigration
04:50Ministerial Visa Directive has been applied, we were seeking to have that stopped, because
04:56that's created a huge amount of uncertainty.
05:00This gives us more certainty, but that visa, that ministerial directive can still apply.
05:05And so that's still causing anxiety amongst us all, I think.
05:09All right.
05:10And a final one on the mechanics.
05:11Margaret, I noticed the Minister said today, if unis don't fill their cap, it could be
05:16reallocated to others.
05:19Does that soften the design of this for the bigger institutions, yours included?
05:25No, because, I mean, as I said, you can't direct students that way.
05:32So, you know, so we are in a market, and so redirecting students to places they don't
05:40want to go to, that, you know, that's not going to happen, they'll go somewhere else.
05:45And so that redirection is not necessarily, I don't think anybody will have too much trouble
05:51meeting this lower cap.