特朗普2.0中美贸易战升级 对我国经济是祸是福？
八点最热报 | 美国共和党总统候选人特朗普在竞选期间还是一直强调会加征关税，除了加大马力，疯狂制裁中国之外，也会对全球其他国家、贸易顺差国家加征10-20%的关税。如果特朗普重回白宫，我国的经济和汇率会不会因此受冲击呢？狂人总统特朗普如果再当选，对我国究竟是福还是祸呢？（主播：萧慧敏）
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00:00Before watching the video, let me remind you that there is more content on the Hotpoint website.
00:04Yesterday, our comment report mentioned that Trump, the U.S. Republican presidential candidate, has been emphasizing that he will increase tariffs during the election.
00:13In addition to increasing the force and crazy sanctions against China, he will also increase tariffs on 10% to 20% of other countries around the world.
00:20If Trump returns to the White House, will the economy and exchange rate of our country be affected?
00:26Zhang Guolin, the founder of New Capital Investment, pointed out that if the Sino-US trade war escalates, our country will benefit from China's addition of tariffs.
00:34Because China and other countries will bypass our country to export products to the United States.
00:39This will indirectly enhance our country's future direct investment.
00:42But Professor Ling Fu, professor of economics at Peking University, firmly believes that Trump's personality will definitely cut off China's addition of tariffs.
00:50In the end, it will directly impact our country.
00:53If President Trump is elected again, will it be a blessing or a curse for our country?
00:58Some time ago, Su Haimin, the chief economist of the Bank of China Investment Research Institute, pointed out in an analysis of his
01:04that Trump's trade policy when he took office as President of the United States in 2017 has had a profound impact on the global economic pattern.
01:12China's economic performance has also significantly declined.
01:15He used 2019 as an example.
01:17He said that China's GDP has fallen from 5.8% in 2017 to 4.4%.
01:24Trade activities including import and export have also shrunk from 18% to 2.5% in 2019.
01:30So he believes that if President Trump really appears, the situation will only get worse.
01:37Ling Fu also pointed out that when Trump was 1.0, the global economy had tasted his bitterness.
01:43So if there is another 2.0, the bitterness will be even more bitter.
01:47Because at least when Trump was 1.0, the economy was very good at that time.
01:51The inflation was very low, and the cost was also very low.
01:53Everyone was enjoying the so-called open and free trade results in the past 30 years.
01:58But now the global economy has been disrupted by President Trump's 1.0.
02:03The economy of the world, including our country, has lost too much capital and is being hurt again.
02:09I don't think the Malaysian economy will be affected by the 2.0.
02:13I think that's a pessimistic view.
02:16After all, the Malaysian economy is more diversified.
02:21We are not just relying on exports.
02:23We also rely on the export of mass products and tourism.
02:26We are more diversified.
02:27And in the big environment, in the case of China-China friendship,
02:31in fact, we still have more foreign investments in Southeast Asian markets.
02:36Then we will start to see more manufacturers come to this market.
02:39This will offset the unclear factors.
02:41Zhang Guolin, the founder of Xinjijin Investment, pointed out during an interview that
02:44for our country, President Trump's 2.0 may not be more bitter than 1.0.
02:48Because if Trump's taxes on China are 60% and 10% on other countries,
02:52it may be beneficial to our country.
02:54Because under China's plus-one strategy,
02:56Malaysia is still a hot spot for re-configuring purchases and supply chains.
02:59Some areas may be damaged.
03:01In addition to China, the United States may have to import more things from other countries other than China.
03:07If I import a lot of things from the United States today,
03:10suddenly the United States' tariffs on China are 60%,
03:13I can't import at all.
03:15Then I must find other countries to replace me.
03:17Even if other countries have 10% tariffs,
03:20it is still 60% cheaper.
03:22Because there is no development locally in a short period of time,
03:25a short period of time is 5 years, 10 years.
03:27Because making in USA is not so easy.
03:30Because the whole process, concept, workers are all very long.
03:35So I think if this is the case,
03:37it may not be a bad thing for Southeast Asia.
03:40Because after all, a lot of things will be transferred here.
03:43So we have seen many other countries
03:46how to transfer to the Southeast Asian market from China.
03:49Just because I'm worried about the 60-10% problem.
03:52Zhang Guoli believes that if Trump comes to power again,
03:54if the Sino-US trade war escalates again,
03:56Malaysia may still be able to use China's advantages
03:58to gain trade transfer and increase foreign direct investment.
04:01But Professor Lin Fuyan of the University of Northern University of Economics
04:03believes that in the short term,
04:05we may benefit from China's influence.
04:07But with Trump's personality,
04:08he won't let this situation continue to happen.
04:10So in the end, the economy and interests of our country will be impacted.
04:13In the short term, we will benefit.
04:16For example, now because he feels that he wants to sanction China,
04:19so there are a lot of Chinese exporters coming to Malaysia.
04:23So their so-called China plus one,
04:25China plus one, plus others.
04:27So in the short term, we will benefit.
04:29But with Trump's personality,
04:31he won't let this situation continue.
04:34This is like a shortcut.
04:36So he will close this shortcut.
04:38So that's just a short-term benefit.
04:41China's interests will be affected.
04:44And once China's shortcuts are closed,
04:46Lin Fuyan believes that this will be a big life-threatening for our economy.
04:49Because the United States is China's third largest trading partner,
04:52it is also likely to be one of the U.S. targets.
04:54This is simply a life-threatening injury to our economy.
05:00Because our country exports a lot to the United States.
05:04We have done a lot.
05:06In Southeast Asian countries,
05:08who makes the most money in the United States?
05:10It's our country.
05:11Although our country has a good relationship with China,
05:13we can also earn what we need in China.
05:17But the United States is also our important trading partner.
05:19We can't deny that it is the world's largest economy.
05:23So the first economy to close the door,
05:26to do what we call protectionism,
05:28we will be in trouble.
05:30Like our big brother suddenly told his younger brother,
05:32from today on, your pocket money is reduced.
05:35I want to spend it myself.
05:38Yes, so the impact will be great.
05:41Lin Fuyan said that when the United States sanctioned China,
05:44we did benefit in the short term.
05:46But in the long run, we will also be damaged.
05:48Because when China's goods are too expensive to enter the US market,
05:52they will look for other substitutes.
05:55At that time, our goods will have to compete with China in these markets.
05:59Whether we can face these competitions will be a big question mark.
06:02The United States sanctioned China, right?
06:04So it is more difficult for Chinese goods to go to the US market.
06:08So it will go to the non-US market.
06:10Then we have to compete with it.
06:12For example, we have planned to go to Indonesia.
06:16But China's US market is small,
06:18so it competes in other countries.
06:20So it competes in other countries.
06:22We have to face China's competition in our own country.
06:25So now, because China's market is too big,
06:29the merchants who go abroad
06:32are all successful merchants who have been eliminated in China.
06:38So their competitiveness is very strong.
06:41So we have to face these competitions.
06:43So these are not easy.
06:46China's Exporters
06:49Lin Fuyan pointed out that when Chinese exporters find that
06:52they can't do business in the US,
06:54they will look for other non-US markets, including China.
06:57Therefore, Chinese merchants will face more intense competition.
07:01When this happens, are Chinese merchants really ready?
07:05Do we have enough competitiveness to compete with these merchants
07:08who have been eliminated in China?
07:11He pointed out that although competition is a good thing for consumers,
07:14it is definitely a bad thing if the competition fails and they can't get back up.
07:19So in this regard, the role of the government is very important.
07:22The enterprise itself must be well prepared.
07:24It must ensure that local enterprises will not be eliminated in this wave of waves.