Why Everybody's Wrong About Arsenal
Arsenal's still in the hunt for the Premier League title, but everybody beats The Blades this season. Likewise, dominant performances against West Ham, Newcastle, and Liverpool were more a result of their opponents just not being at their best. Or so people say.
Adam Clery takes a look at Arsenal's latest run and thinks it's time to start giving Mikel Arteta and his side the respect they deserve.
Adam Clery takes a look at Arsenal's latest run and thinks it's time to start giving Mikel Arteta and his side the respect they deserve.
Transcript
00:00All right, so this was the Arsenal side you got against Sheffield United last night and
00:05to quote Tom York, no alarms and no surprises.
00:09Now, just before we get into all of this, if you are watching this video and you are
00:12an Arsenal fan, I, me personally, have just returned from a trip to Lake Como and oh,
00:17it's a really hard life where amongst other things, we sat down with Cesc Fabregas.
00:22Not to jinx it before I edit it, but it's probably the single best thing we've ever
00:25made and he is a massive, massive part of the story we're trying to tell over there.
00:29So if you don't want to miss that, please do consider subscribing to us here on 442
00:33and you'll see it when it exists.
00:35Anyway, though, Arsenal versus Sheffield United.
00:37This was the team and they absolutely batted them.
00:40They were 5-0 up inside 38 minutes, had 81% of the ball and denied Sheffield United so
00:47much as a single shot on target.
00:49Now, while I'm not saying that people aren't praising this Arsenal side for the things
00:53they're doing well, there was still an undertone last night in all the coverage and that everything
00:57has been published today that, alright, that's good, but it is only Sheffield United.
01:02But it's not only Sheffield United, it's every single Premier League game that Arsenal
01:06have played this year.
01:07Like if we measure their dominance in that game last night in terms of the amount of
01:11chances that the opposition were able to have and how good those chances were, then you
01:15can see they let Sheffield United have absolutely nothing.
01:19But then if we just flesh this right out to the start of the year, this is a staggering,
01:24staggering consistent.
01:25There's a whopping three shots on target for both Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest
01:29right at the start of the year, but since then it's become an increasingly meagre feast.
01:33And yes, these numbers aren't exactly astonishing when they're next to names like Burnley or
01:37Sheffield United, but just take Newcastle and West Ham.
01:40They're two teams in the hunt for European football this season and while they've been
01:44up and down, they certainly are capable of scoring goals.
01:48And I presume you don't need me to tell you that Liverpool are also quite good and that
01:51just nobody ever restricts them to that few chances or that few good chances ever.
01:56And I won't dwell on this too long because I know a lot of people don't care about XG
02:00and think it's a bit of a weird stat, but it is useful for measuring like quality of
02:03chance, although obviously guarantees you absolutely nothing.
02:07Liverpool this season average about 2.2, 2.3 XG every single game.
02:12They're always going to create enough chances to get over two goals.
02:16Played Arsenal in that game, they made chances worth 0.3 XG.
02:21I can see why people were like, oh, really bad day at the office for Jurgen Klopp there.
02:26But when Arsenal do this to every team they play, you've got to start to look at that
02:31and think, actually, it's not that they're just having a bad game.
02:34It's that they're being made to have a bad game.
02:36So that then does beg the question.
02:38How do Arsenal make all these teams have a bad game?
02:42And the answer is in loads of different ways.
02:46Mikel Arteta is changing this team's approach on an almost game by game basis and getting
02:51it absolutely bang on.
02:53So I'll show you what I mean.
02:54Right. This is Arsenal's average positions across the 90 minutes against Sheffield United.
02:58And you can see pretty much a team in total dominance of that match.
03:02They're playing almost the entire game in the opposition's half.
03:05And if you look over this side, you can see Martinelli, Rice, Havertz and even Odegaard
03:09over here are all pushed really far forward.
03:12And then there's Bakayo Saka, who was pretty much just on holiday in this part of the pitch
03:17against their left back.
03:18It was incredibly dominant.
03:19They absolutely battered them with it.
03:20But you can see just by looking at it, it's like a picture perfect example of a 4-3-3
03:25with a striker who sort of drops away from the front line to let everybody else run into
03:29that space.
03:30Good job.
03:31But this is the team's average positions against Newcastle United.
03:34And despite it being the exact same players, it's no longer a picture perfect 4-3-3.
03:39There's something very different going on.
03:41They're still pushed up really high.
03:42We've got Jorginho in sort of the pivot role here.
03:44But Saka is actually playing a lot more in field and Odegaard seems to be getting into
03:49the space that's leaving.
03:50In fact, between Odegaard, Rice and Havertz, they all seem to be playing in this one pocket
03:54of space, almost like there was a big gap between Newcastle's midfield and defence that
03:59they all thought they needed to be in.
04:00If you go back and you watch how Arsenal were creating chances in those two games, it tells
04:04that kind of story.
04:05Like this is the opening goal against Sheffield United.
04:08You can see the 2-8s are acting as runners, supporting the centre forward.
04:11There's width being provided by the wide attack.
04:13And then you've got the rest of the defence pushed right up.
04:16Because of the lack of space in behind, they're all pretty much on a direct line here.
04:19And what they're going to do is use Jorginho, who's sitting off all of them, to sort of
04:23bounce a pass into the little bit of space.
04:25And that is exactly what they do.
04:27Saka passes Jorginho, he gets him in and then they all go from being on this same line.
04:31You probably have to watch this several times looped over and over.
04:34But the three players then in the box, who are potentially an option here, all make very
04:38different movements.
04:39Martin Odegaard faints to go towards the near post, but then pulls off to the penalty spot
04:43for a cutback.
04:44Jorginho, Tottenham, Rice goes across his marker, trying to get in at the near post
04:47and Kai Havertz dummies a little run and then goes to the back.
04:51Do we think, my friends, that of the three options those three players had in that scenario,
04:56it is just a coincidence that they all happened to pick a different one?
04:59But then if you go back to the Newcastle game, you don't see that shape at all.
05:03Because Newcastle were playing far further up the pitch, there was no need to press everybody
05:06up.
05:07So instead, we've got Odegaard here, Havertz here and Rice here, sitting off Newcastle's
05:12defensive line, but right behind their midfielders.
05:14So instead of waiting for that little bounce pass to try and get them in behind Newcastle's
05:18defence, they're waiting for the midfield to try and press up onto him here or White
05:22here or Kivio here, so they could get in that gap instead.
05:26But to quote Brian Butterfield, that's still not all.
05:31This is the average positions against Sheffield United, yep, good, you've seen that.
05:34This is the average positions against Newcastle United, yep, good, you've seen that.
05:38And this, this is the average positions against Liverpool.
05:42Again, if you are a subscriber to this channel, you have heard me use the term box midfield
05:46so many times over the past 12 months, I think I'm going to go insane every time I say it,
05:50but there is a picture perfect box midfield in this game.
05:55And barring one change, which was Zinchenko for Kivio, it is the exact same starting XI
06:00again.
06:01And this time, they're trying to get men round the ball in the centre of the pitch to offset
06:05Liverpool's ability to keep possession.
06:07And look, here it is live and in living colour.
06:09Sometimes they were having Havertz drop back to sort of form the point of it with Erdegaard
06:13or sometimes they were having White invert from the right hand side so Havertz could
06:16stay high and they could build it that way.
06:18But this was something they could just do on a whim.
06:21So far in 2024, Arsenal have turned up to every single Premier League game knowing exactly
06:28what they need to do to maximise their chances of getting a good result and doing it really
06:34effectively.
06:35And they're doing it so effectively that not only have they scored, I want to say 31 goals
06:41in seven matches, they have limited their opponents to two goals from 2.1 XG.
06:49Just for comparison here, the next lowest XG over the same number of games, right, is
06:54unsurprisingly Manchester City.
06:57And that is over 7 XG.
06:59But why does this XG stuff matter so much?
07:02I never normally talk about it in videos because I know some people don't like it as
07:05a stat and some people do.
07:07Why am I focusing on it here?
07:08Well, it's because that single stat, more than I think any other single bit of information,
07:14suggests to me that Arsenal might actually win this league.
07:18So look, if you're just, if you're not an XG person, right, just go with me on this
07:21for a couple of minutes.
07:22This is the XG against table in the Premier League, the very top of it.
07:26Obviously, no surprise whatsoever, Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal, the three best
07:30teams by a mile in this division, have the lowest XG conceded both in total and per 90
07:35minutes this season.
07:36But even though all three of those numbers are incredibly good and probably good enough
07:40to win you a Premier League, Arsenal's is significantly better than both Liverpool's
07:45and Manchester City's.
07:46It's nearly half what Liverpool's is.
07:47And of course, while that is just a made up stat that is completely for nerds, I understand
07:52it's borne out in the actual evidence as well because Arsenal have conceded the fewest number
07:57of goals.
07:58So therefore, and I am going somewhere with this, if you put those two bits of information
08:01together, you can confidently say that Arsenal probably are the best defensive team in this
08:05league.
08:06They're controlling games so well that it's not just that their opponents keep missing
08:10chances and they're getting let off, they're not even letting them have good chances full
08:15stop.
08:16So they're not conceding.
08:17Now this might look a little bit crowded and busy, but I'm just going to bring up the final
08:19Premier League standings from like quite a lot of recent years.
08:23And I'm just going to highlight here one team from every season.
08:28Now, okay, you're looking at that and you're going, Adam, you've just simply highlighted
08:31the Premier League champions from all of those seasons.
08:33And yes, that is true.
08:35I have done that.
08:36But what I've also highlighted here is the team that conceded the fewest number of goals.
08:41Not necessarily the team that scored the most number of goals.
08:44You will note here in particular, Man City actually outscored Liverpool by nearly 20
08:49goals and still didn't win the league that year.
08:51Across all of these seasons, the team that has defended best, that has been able to restrict
08:57their opponent to the fewest number of chances, has been the team that has won the league.
09:02And right now, it isn't that Arsenal are slightly better than Liverpool or Manchester City at
09:06doing this, or that they're just shading them on these numbers.
09:09They are miles out in front at doing this.
09:11And just if I might editorialise slightly here, I'm not an Arsenal fan by any stretch
09:15of the imagination.
09:16It makes no difference to me whatsoever, whether it's them or it's Liverpool or Manchester
09:20City.
09:21I both like and dislike those clubs very equally, but I was watching that Sheffield United game
09:26and the way they just exploded out of the traps in the first couple of minutes, how
09:29they were just unrelenting, how they were getting goals from all areas of the pitch,
09:33how they had so many different options, so many different ideas for how they were going
09:37to hurt this side.
09:38And I just thought, surely, shoot, in a fair and just universe, surely that is the team
09:44that wins a league.
09:45But anyway, that's enough from me.
09:46I'm sure you've got plenty of other things to be getting on with today.
09:48If you did enjoy this video in any way, shape or form, please do consider subscribing to
09:52us here on 442.
09:53It's the one metric that is just really, really important for us.
09:56So if you would like to watch any of this in future, please do.
09:59Elsewhere, you get me on all of the socials at Adam Cleary, C-L-E-R-Y, the 442 socials
10:04are in the corner of the video.
10:06This is the old magazine now, I have to go get the new one.
10:09It's got Trent Alexander-Arnold on the cover and is dead good, if I do say so myself, so
10:13go and buy either of those if you spot them when you're out and about.
10:16Anyway, as ever, thank you very much for watching.
10:18Sincere apologies to Arsenal fans for the fact I have now almost certainly put some
10:22kind of Vicious Curse on them that means the next three games are going to be boring
10:27nil-nils.
10:28Sorry about that, but until next time, I just, I just think they can do it and I would just
10:34like them to do it.
10:36And that's my truth.
10:37Goodbye.