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00:00We know him better than his mother, and we are not unable to reach him as we reached those before him.
00:05The Israelis say he is our precious gain that came to us on a golden platter.
00:10Tehran whispers he is the hell that has come to meet the Palestinians and Israelis who hoped that they had not chosen Hanya.
00:18Rather, he is the password for the end of the Gaza War and the path of Iran's revenge against Israel.
00:24Western and Israeli intelligence circles say,
00:28Long live Sinwar, the man who does not smile or get angry,
00:32the strong man devoid of feelings who will never leave Gaza and will never surrender,
00:38and will not, as those who investigated him from the Israelis describe him.
00:43Today, as many believe, he will be the reason for the end of the war
00:47and the valley of the crushing response from multiple fronts that Khamenei, that is, Israel,
00:52pledged and promised with all faith after it assassinated Ismail Haniyeh
00:57while he was sleeping and reassured about the leadership of Hamas today.
01:01It comes to the Iranians.
01:03Whether it was involved in killing Haniyeh, as the Western report claimed,
01:07or it is grieving over his death and wants revenge, as Tehran says.
01:12In addition to many warnings that may impose a recalculation by returning the response
01:17or even canceling it or perhaps reducing it to a minimum,
01:21the lowest that does not harm the wolf and does not destroy the sheep,
01:25these are some of the equations that we will shed light on for those who ask about Iran's response
01:30and about the reactor of Yahya Sinwar,
01:33Iran's man reaching the top of the pyramid in Hamas,
01:37and the messages of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to Bashar al-Assad
01:42that you should have supported us in our war,
01:45but you did not do so in light of the talk about movements by his chief of staff to support Iran.
01:50But behind the back of Assad, who is committed to the instructions of the Russians,
01:55which are that you have nothing to do with a multi-front or single-front response to Israel,
02:01at a time when American crowds continue to arrive to protect Tel Aviv and perhaps to destroy Iran,
02:07it was necessary and thought of a response greater than what is permitted for it.
02:12In light of all the data, let us start with choosing Sinwar as the head of Hamas.
02:17Yes, it was a regional and international shock.
02:20Internationally, I feared that it would disrupt the negotiations,
02:24exacerbate the war and expand its flames,
02:27but Western and Israeli reports melted to the exact opposite of this.
02:32A choice that might end the war,
02:34linking this to his political ambitions in choosing Sinwar,
02:38according to these reports, instead of Haniyeh,
02:41might help push the hostage negotiations and end the war for several considerations.
02:47The first of which is that it was his intention, according to these reports,
02:51that he was consequences before the negotiations,
02:54because Mohammed is burdened with visions that may be contradictory between Tehran and Doha,
03:00and with them Ankara, and he also lives outside Gaza.
03:04As for Sinwar, he will deal with the negotiations in a more realistic manner,
03:08since he is still inside Gaza.
03:10Sinwar may also want to play his role as the movement's leader
03:14and ensure his election in the Hamas movement elections in 2025,
03:18which he cannot do until the bet deal is completed,
03:21which will lead to the end of the war
03:23and ensure that he demands a halt to the assassinations of Hamas leaders.
03:27Sinwar's importance in this position increases because,
03:31in addition to becoming the head of Hamas's political bureau,
03:34he is also the leader in Gaza,
03:36and it is possible that he will strengthen his position as a leader
03:39and strengthen Hamas position as an alternative to Fatah,
03:43the Palestinian Authority, and the Palestine Liberation Organization.
03:47This may justify the obstacles that prevented the selection of Khaled Mashal
03:51as the movement's president,
03:53despite Mashal being considered a moderate figure close to Qatar.
03:57At a time when many analyses suggest that Israel will not negotiate with Sinwar
04:02and will not rest until it liquidates him,
04:04considering him part of the plan for the greatest disaster in Israel's history,
04:09namely the al-Aqsa flood,
04:11especially since he is Iran's man and the most extremist in Hamas.
04:16However, from here we can highlight the second point,
04:19which is the Iranian-Israeli benefit of participation.
04:22On the Iranian side, it can be said that if Tehran had a say yesterday
04:26over Hamas with the presence of Ismail Haniyeh,
04:29then its say is what controls Hamas today with the presence of Sinwar,
04:33far from the influences of Qatar and others,
04:36and this is the valuable gain that came to Iran.
04:39As for Israel, it may view the matter from the perspective of partial interest
04:44that Iran be satisfied with a small response to the assassination of Haniyeh
04:49or postponement or even cancellation in exchange for Israel agreeing to allow Sinwar
04:53to manage the Gaza Strip for a while
04:56and negotiate with him on the release of the hostages and a water truce.
05:00Hebrew reports even went so far as to say that the backstage of the next deal
05:04is to end the war and Sinwar's exit from Gaza
05:08and allow an alternative government in it.
05:11Perhaps what supports, even theoretically,
05:13the hypothesis that Israel and Iran may reach an implicit understanding
05:18are some indicators that must be reviewed according to analysis and research centers,
05:22including the Iranian president's statement
05:25that Iran reserves the right to respond to Israel,
05:28which is a sentence that Iran usually says
05:31when it does not want to respond immediately at least.
05:33It is also possible to read the statements of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah
05:39when he hinted at the possibility of responding alone to Israel.
05:42What is happening is that many Iraqis stand in the way of the comprehensive response
05:47that Iran talked about, even if reports intelligence leaked by CNN.
05:51I went to that.
05:52Hezbollah seems to be attacking Israel independently of Iran
05:56because it is moving faster than Tehran,
05:58which is still working on determining how to respond,
06:01indicating that Hezbollah may act without prior warning,
06:04which does not apply to Iran given Lebanon's proximity to Israel as a direct neighbor.
06:09According to these reports, Hezbollah will launch the first strike
06:13and the targets will be military and security, not civilian,
06:17including the army headquarters in central Tel Aviv,
06:20the Mossad headquarters and intelligence bases.
06:23We should also not forget that Nasrallah sent an indirect message to Bashar al-Assad
06:27that Israel's victory means the end of the dream of liberating the Golan,
06:31which was supported by reports that Assad is sending veiled messages to Israel
06:36that he is not interested in the comprehensive response that Tehran's circles talked about.
06:41These reports stated that the Syrian chief of staff, General Abdul Karim Ibrahim,
06:46made moves with Iran without the knowledge of the Syrian president,
06:49approving attacks on Israel from Syrian territory
06:52and agreeing in mid-July to launch marches towards Israel,
06:56all of this without the desire of Assad,
06:58who is committed to Russia's instructions not to enter any war against Israel.
07:03Finally, it can be said that the successive strikes by America and Britain on Yemen
07:08may make it difficult for it to participate in any coordinated attack with Tehran on Israel,
07:14which has ensured that Iran is taking a thousand calculations into account
07:18with the rush of American armored vehicles, aircraft and forces to defend it.
07:22After all this, the question remains,
07:25will Iran carry out a small, limited response to save face?
07:29Or will it be satisfied with its victory by choosing Sinwar, the head of Hamas?
07:35Oh Tehran, what shook you was the choice of.