Trump and Harris standings in various states
#usa #elections #polls #usapolls
#usa #elections #polls #usapolls
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00:00And just hours from now, Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim
00:04Walz, will take the stage at a rally in Las Vegas.
00:06They'll be wrapping up a nearly week-long tour through some of the most critical battleground
00:11states of this election.
00:12The Harris campaign has seen a jolt of voter enthusiasm in the last three weeks since President
00:17Biden dropped out of the race and she became the party's presumptive nominee.
00:21She's new polling showing it's not just vibes.
00:24CNN's Harry Enten here to break that polling data down for us.
00:28Harry, what do these new New York Times polls show?
00:31I've heard from a lot of people about these today, a lot of people with eyes on these.
00:35Yeah, a lot of people.
00:36I think this is the type of polling we've been waiting for, right?
00:39We've seen that national polling showing movement towards Kamala Harris.
00:43Now we get some swing state polling showing something very similar.
00:47All right.
00:48These are in the Great Lake battleground states.
00:49We're talking about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan.
00:52You go back to May, what'd you see?
00:53You saw that a pretty tight race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but you see more red
00:57than blue on the screen.
00:58Of course, all three of these states were states that Joe Biden carried last time around.
01:02You saw a three-point lead for Trump in Pennsylvania, one well within the margin of error in Wisconsin,
01:06and then a one-point lead for Biden, Michigan.
01:08But look at where we are now.
01:10This is the type of movement the Harris campaign has been looking for.
01:14Look in Pennsylvania, a four-point advantage, Wisconsin, a four-point advantage, Michigan,
01:18a four-point advantage.
01:19And in all three of these states, we see clear movement towards the Democratic nominee.
01:24I will point out we're still in no clear leader land in this particular instance, but
01:28the Harris campaign has to love this movement.
01:31Seven points in Pennsylvania, five points in Wisconsin, and three points in the great
01:35state of Michigan, all moving towards Kamala Harris.
01:38And she has the advantage in all three, although again, no clear leader within the margin of
01:42error.
01:43Right.
01:44Important to keep that context in mind.
01:45Now, these aren't the only swing state polls that are showing Trump slipping.
01:49That's exactly right.
01:50You know, if we were just talking about the New York Times, Siena College, I'd say, you
01:53know what?
01:54Hold on a second.
01:55Hold on.
01:56You know me, Jessica.
01:57You know that I like to see confirmation of an individual poll.
02:00So there were Ipsos polls that were conducted in these same states.
02:05And I want you to look.
02:06This is an aggregate, of course, across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
02:09You go back to June.
02:10What do you see?
02:11You saw Trump, on average, up by two points.
02:13Very similar to what we saw in the New York Times, Siena College poll.
02:16Look at where we are now, the August margin between Harris and Trump.
02:20And look at what we see here.
02:21We see Harris up by two points.
02:23Again, no clear leader, but that four-point movement, very similar to what we saw in the
02:28New York Times, Siena College poll.
02:30And this is what we're seeing across the polling data.
02:33It's not just one poll.
02:34It's not just one pollster.
02:36It's across pollsters.
02:37It's across polls.
02:38And, of course, in these Great Lake Battleground states that are going to be so important,
02:42we're seeing this four-point move with, instead of seeing a small Republican lead, we're seeing
02:46a small Democratic Party lead.
02:48And in this particular case, a small Kamala Harris lead over Donald Trump, the reverse
02:52of what we were just seeing just two months ago.
02:55Yeah.
02:56And, of course, the reason we care about these particular states so much is because of the
02:59Electoral College and how this all is decided in the fall.
03:03What does this data mean for the Electoral College more broadly and how that's playing
03:07out?
03:08Yeah.
03:09So, look, this is what we're talking about, the race to 270 electoral votes.
03:14And I want to give Kamala Harris those Great Lake Battleground states where she was leading,
03:18although within the margin of error.
03:20We're talking about Wisconsin.
03:21We're talking Michigan.
03:22We're talking Pennsylvania.
03:23If we give those three states to Kamala Harris, even if she loses in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia,
03:30which are far from guarantees.
03:31These, of course, were three states that Joe Biden carried last time around, but in which
03:35the Democrats have been falling a little bit short of their 2020 numbers, at least in recent
03:39data, at least when Joe Biden's in the race.
03:41But if we give Harris Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, look at that.
03:45She doesn't even need these Sunbelt Battleground states.
03:47She gets to exactly 270 electoral votes.
03:51So the fact is, when you see those polls in those Great Lake Battleground states and
03:55you see that Harris has turned the tide around from basically, you know, Donald Trump being
04:00slightly ahead to now Harris being slightly ahead, that could be the entire ballgame.
04:05Even if she loses down south, if she wins up north, that's enough.
04:08That gets her to exactly 270 electoral votes.
04:11And that's why those New York Times, Siena College polls, as well as those Ipsos polling
04:14data, why it means so much.
04:17And so here we are.
04:18Probably I'm ballparking it here, 80 something days away from the election at this point.
04:23How much can things change from now until the election?
04:25Yeah.
04:26So we have seen a lot of movement in the last two to three months.
04:30And I just want to note that the movement that we've seen towards Harris could easily
04:34reverse itself.
04:35And the reason I say that is because how far off were the polls on August 10th compared
04:40to the final margin in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on average in 2016?
04:46The average from the polls at this point to the final margin, nine points across those
04:51three states.
04:52How about in 2020?
04:54Look at that.
04:55The average movement from the final poll from the polls at this point to the final margin.
04:59Look at that.
05:00Five points.
05:01So the fact is, yes, Kamala Harris may be slightly ahead right now.
05:04Again, though, a race which which there's no clear leader within the margin.
05:08But that could easily turn around in the final, let's say, a little bit less than three months
05:13to go.
05:14There's still a lot of campaign to go.
05:15We've got a Democratic National Convention to go.
05:17We probably have at least one more debate to go.
05:19So still a lot can change.
05:21But at the end of the day, Jessica, if you are the Democratic Party and you were looking
05:25at the polls two, three months ago and you compare it where you look now, I think for
05:29no doubt they'd rather look at this picture in August than the picture they were looking
05:33at it may.
05:34It's much more rosy picture for the Democratic Party, but still a lot of campaign to go.
05:38Jessica.
05:39Yeah, that's right.
05:40All right.
05:41Harry and always great to have you break it down for us.
05:42Thanks so much for that.