Russia is fighting intense battles as a substantial Ukrainian incursion in the Kursk region goes into a fifth day.
Is Kyiv's biggest attack on Russian territory since the start of the conflict in 2022 a morale boost or a waste of resources for Ukraine? Sean Bell, retired Air Vice-Marshal and Military Analyst, explains.
#russia #ukraine #kursk #military
Is Kyiv's biggest attack on Russian territory since the start of the conflict in 2022 a morale boost or a waste of resources for Ukraine? Sean Bell, retired Air Vice-Marshal and Military Analyst, explains.
#russia #ukraine #kursk #military
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Sean, welcome, good to see you. For those of us who are not experts in this, just how significant is Ukraine's
00:06incursion into Russia's Kursk region?
00:11Yeah, good afternoon, Jamie. It is quite significant, as your report has said.
00:15You know, it's in over two years since the start of the war,
00:18this is the first time really that Ukraine has manned an attack into Russian territory.
00:23The critics would turn around and say this is a waste of valuable resources,
00:27the Ukraine is likely to get snuffed out or pay a higher price.
00:31But as a former military guy, warfare is all about initiative.
00:36And this has definitely caught Russia by surprise by pushing up to 35 kilometers in.
00:41We don't know the key objectives of Ukrainians.
00:43But we have been told up to 20 of Western supplied
00:47Challenger 2 tanks, sorry, the Leopard 2 tanks and a thousand Ukrainian personnel
00:53likely involved in this.
00:54What we don't know, it's shrouded in secrecy, not too many briefs.
00:58But the three points, from my perspective, is why are they doing it?
01:01One is to seize the initiative to almost certainly to demonstrate
01:05that Russia is not in total control of this war.
01:08And the third one, just imagine the morale for the Ukrainian forces
01:11to be fighting back like this.
01:13What does this incursion say about Russia and where it is militarily?
01:21Well, that's a fascinating question.
01:24I think Russia has been on the front foot in the war.
01:27It's pouring huge resources in.
01:28It's trying to take advantage of that lull with the West providing weapons.
01:34As you remember, the Americans, it took a while to get the 60 billion dollars
01:38of aid through.
01:39So Russia has been pouring effort into securing the Donbass,
01:43taking huge casualties.
01:45And by actually what Ukraine has done here is it's relatively swiftly
01:49made a big inroad.
01:50Now, Russia knows that its number one priority is to protect its own people.
01:55But actually, it's showing that all of its military forces are deployed
01:58and it's struggling, therefore, to hold ground.
02:01Now, from Ukraine's perspective, when you're on the offense,
02:04you lose three times as many people as you do on the defense.
02:07So it's going to be incredibly costly for Ukraine.
02:10But if they can hold some ground, it will cause Russia
02:13to rethink its priorities and potentially take forces away
02:17from the front line, ease pressure on Ukraine's front line
02:21in order to bolster Russian domestic defense.
02:24Well, let's explore that a little bit more.
02:26I mean, how might this incursion change or perhaps influence
02:30the military strategies of Ukraine and Russia?
02:36Well, it's as we've said, I think it's very difficult to know behind the scenes
02:40whether Ukraine has done this just as a bit of a one off
02:44to try to ease the pressure on the front line
02:46and cause Russia to do some thinking.
02:49Think the real issue from my perspective is militarily,
02:52although some Ukrainians want to see a Ukrainian flag planted in Moscow,
02:57the harsh reality is Ukraine is not powerful enough to do that.
03:00There may be some strategic objectives for this push,
03:03but it looks much more likely that it's going to be tactically significant.
03:07But ultimately, Russia will will prevail and snuff it out.
03:10But the long term implications are it's a huge border with Ukraine.
03:15If Ukraine wants to actually do these attacks again,
03:18Russia will be vulnerable and it will force it to rethink its priorities
03:23between how many forces it puts into Ukraine on the offense
03:26and how much it protects life at home.
03:28And of course, you've got to remember Putin controls the information
03:31narrative in Russia.
03:33But of course, if Russian cities are being attacked,
03:36he's very difficult for him to control that narrative.
03:39So he'll be very keen to ensure that he's in control,
03:42that the Russian citizens are protected.
03:46And therefore, this is an extremely dangerous time for President Putin.
03:50Sean, thank you for that.
03:51Sean Bell, a retired air vice marshal and military analyst.