Australia's national terrorism threat level elevated to 'probable'
ASIO raised the nation's terror threat level in response to the growing number of Australians embracing extremist ideologies.
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00:00Asia has decided to return Australia's national terrorism threat level from possible to probable.
00:08I want to reassure Australians, probable does not mean inevitable and it does not mean there
00:15is intelligence about an imminent threat or danger.
00:19But the advice that we've received is that more Australians are embracing a more diverse
00:24range of extreme ideologies and it is our responsibility to be vigilant.
00:31To be clear, this is the same threat level that was in place in Australia for more than
00:38eight years before it was lowered in November of 2022.
00:43Our decision reflects a degrading security environment.
00:48A threat level of probable means we assess there is a greater than 50% chance of an onshore
00:53attack or planning in the next 12 months.
00:57It does not mean that we have intelligence about a current attack planning or an expectation
01:01of an imminent attack.
01:04Decisions of this kind are not taken quickly or easily.
01:07The subject matter experts in the National Threat Assessment Centre use intelligence
01:11and employ structured analytical techniques to test, retest and contest their assumptions.
01:18Our decision is not a direct response to the tragic events in the Middle East.
01:23At this stage, we do not believe any of the terrorist plots we have investigated in the
01:27last year have been inspired by Gaza.
01:31Terrorist leaders offshore are not inspiring attacks onshore.
01:35This is why we did not raise the threat level in the immediate aftermath of 7 October.
01:41Indirectly though, there have been important and relevant impacts.
01:45The conflict has fuelled grievances, promoted protest, exacerbated division, undermined
01:51social cohesion and elevated intolerance.
01:55After 7 October, I warned that inflamed language could lead to inflamed community tensions.
02:01Unfortunately, this is what is playing out.
02:05Because of these complex dynamics, it would also be inaccurate to suggest the next terrorist
02:09attack or plot is likely to be motivated by a twisted view of a particular religion or
02:15a particular ideology.
02:17The threat is across the board.
02:20In the last 4 months, there have been 8 attacks or disruptions that have either involved alleged
02:25terrorism or have been investigated as potential acts of terrorism.
02:31It's important to put this in context though.
02:34The threats I'm describing are significant but not insurmountable.
02:38Probable does not mean inevitable.
02:41Australians should be aware but not afraid.
02:44If you believe a person you know is going down a dark extremist path, please talk to
02:49someone or call the National Security Hotline on 1800 123 400.