अमेरिका में मंदी की आशंका, मिडिल ईस्ट में बढ़ते तनाव जैसे फैक्टर्स ने इक्विटी मार्केट, करेंसी मार्केट समेत बुलियन मार्केट में भूचाल ला दिया. सोमवार को भारत से लेकर अमेरिका तक सभी बाजारों में भारी करेक्शन दर्ज किया गया. फिर शाम होते होते पड़ोसी मुल्क बांग्लादेश में तख्तापलट की घटना ने हिला दिया. राजनैतिक उथलपुथल से भारत और बांग्लादेश की ट्रेड पॉलिसी पर कितना असर पड़ेगा? डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपए की चाल आगे कैसी रहेगी और बुलियन मार्केट में बुल रन रहेगी या फिर रफ्तार धीमी पड़ जाएगी. इन सब पर गुड़रिटर्न्स हिंदी ने केडिया एडवाइजरी के डायरेक्टर अजय केडिया से बातचीत की.
#bangladeshcrisis #bangladeshprotest #sheikhhasinaresign #sharemarket #globalrecession #USrecession #sharemarkettoday
~HT.178~PR.147~ED.148~GR.124~
#bangladeshcrisis #bangladeshprotest #sheikhhasinaresign #sharemarket #globalrecession #USrecession #sharemarkettoday
~HT.178~PR.147~ED.148~GR.124~
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NewsTranscript
00:00Namaskar, I am Digvijay Singh. Welcome to GoReturns.
00:03The fear of bankruptcy in the US and the rising tensions in the Middle East
00:07brought a surge in the equity market, currency market, and bullion market.
00:11On Monday, we saw the impact from India to the US.
00:15There was a decline in the markets, but in the evening, the neighbouring country, Bangladesh,
00:21took a turn and gave a shock again.
00:24And how much impact will this have on trade policy?
00:27There is a surge in the currency market as well.
00:30How much more will the Indian currency fall or rise?
00:33How much impact will the bullion market have on Monday?
00:36So, let's understand this.
00:37We have Ajay Kedia, the director of Kedia Advisory with us.
00:41Sir, welcome to our special program.
00:44So, first of all, sir, let's focus on this incident in Bangladesh.
00:49Sir, how much impact will it have on trade policy after this turn?
00:52Especially if we talk about the agri sector.
00:55In FY24, we saw that there was a trade of $13 billion between the two countries.
01:00Namaskar.
01:01Yes, Mr. Digvijay.
01:02If we talk about yesterday, it was a remarkable day in the financial and capital markets.
01:09Because we usually see only one or two events in the market.
01:14But the way we saw multiple triggers yesterday was very important.
01:19In the morning recession, we saw the reversal of carry trades from Japan.
01:25This was a big trigger.
01:27Because of which we saw a big decline in the capital market from the morning.
01:31After that, we saw that the numbers of recession fears in the US were also having an impact.
01:38But in the evening, we saw that the news of Tata Blood was very important for India.
01:43Because we know that India and Bangladesh share a big border.
01:48There are a lot of agri products in which we help each other.
01:53Especially if we talk about agri products, we are major exporters.
01:57We also import a lot of items from Bangladesh.
02:01If we talk about FY21-22, we exported approximately $5,540 million to Bangladesh.
02:15If we talk about imports, we have a lot of spices in it.
02:19Oil mills, jute, vegetable oil.
02:22As you know, we are the biggest importer of edible oil.
02:26So we also try to get something from some country.
02:29But if we talk about exports, our major exporter is cotton.
02:33Because Bangladesh is a big cotton hub in terms of manufacturing.
02:38Wheat, rice, sugar, there are a lot of commodities in which we see good big trades.
02:45Before the recession, we saw that the concern of forex was going on from Bangladesh for a long time.
02:51Because of this, there was some sourness in the trade.
02:54But because of this, we can say that the trade has stopped.
02:58When we talked to spice traders, if you remember, in the time of COVID-19,
03:03we exported turmeric from trains to Bangladesh.
03:07So I think that the payment concerns have started to increase to a large extent.
03:11Because of this uncertainty, we have seen a decline in agri prices.
03:16And I think that it will not be resolved immediately.
03:19Because before Bangladesh, we also saw a sharp turn in Malaysia.
03:24We also saw the impact of that on our business.
03:27So I think that the commodities I have talked about, whether it is wheat, cotton, rice, sugar,
03:33we will see an impact on all of these.
03:36And as a result, we have seen the rupee drop in the domestic market for the first time in a lifetime.
03:42Let's talk about cotton especially.
03:44Is this an opportunity for India in terms of the textile industry?
03:47Because in global garment production, the share is of India after China and Bangladesh.
03:52Now that there is some uncertainty there, will India benefit from it?
03:59If I talk about the textile industry,
04:02In India, where we produce 3.5 to 3.6 million bales, we also have a share in the global market.
04:11No doubt, in 4-5 years, our production has not increased, it has decreased.
04:15But in terms of consumption, India has the highest population, so we have domestic consumption.
04:23But as we have seen, the current government has given a slogan, Make in India.
04:27We have done a lot of work under this.
04:29But now let's see how India takes this opportunity.
04:33When we were showing China One Policy Global Market during Covid,
04:37India certainly tried to boost Make in India.
04:40We also talked about giving production link incentives.
04:44But we did not see much of its impact on the Indian market.
04:48So definitely, what will be the government's plan in the next 2-3 months is very important.
04:54So definitely, this is a big opportunity for India.
04:57If we talk about the cost, as compared to Bangladesh, it is a bit costly.
05:02But today, India has more capacity than China, Bangladesh, or other countries.
05:07So I think this will be a great golden opportunity for the textile industry.
05:11But how will it be used, we will have to see later.
05:15Can it also affect the FTA, which is being discussed on the free trade agreement?
05:19Can it also affect the political turmoil in Bangladesh?
05:23I would say that the political uncertainty in Bangladesh will give India a great opportunity.
05:30The current government has been working on a policy for the past 10 years.
05:35We have seen a stable government.
05:37So it is possible that the foreign investors, as we saw after Covid,
05:42as they came out of China, they found new countries and tried to implement there.
05:48So I think the uncertainty in Bangladesh will give India a chance.
05:54But next month, it will be important to see how ready the textile industry is for this.
06:00The government has tried a lot.
06:02But if there is improvement in this, it will be a big golden opportunity for India.
06:07Especially in the textile industry, which has been deprived of good trades for the past 2 years.
06:13Sir, let's also look at the currency market.
06:15Yesterday, the Indian currency reached above Rs. 84 compared to the dollar.
06:21Is this only due to the outflow of foreign investors?
06:24Is there any other trigger?
06:26Definitely, when we see an uncertainty in the global market, it affects the domestic market.
06:32But understand one thing that India is an exporting country.
06:35If we talk about India for the past 4 years, we see that our exports are good.
06:41Exports are good means that your currency is actually good for us.
06:47Let me give you an example of China.
06:49In 2019-20, we saw that the US was imposing sanctions on China.
06:54To avoid this, China devalued its currency.
06:58Because of this, we saw a lot of benefits in China.
07:02If we talk about India, there are 2-3 things.
07:05We have seen an improvement in FDIs in the past 2 years.
07:09Our reserves have also improved.
07:11But still, there is a decline.
07:14If you compare 4-5 countries in the past year, India's currency is still stable.
07:21Yesterday, we saw an impact in yen and dollar.
07:26In the coming days, I think we can touch the 84-20 level.
07:31RBI's MPC meeting is also going on.
07:33Can we talk about supporting the currency?
07:36Can the government comment on this?
07:39What do you think?
07:42If we talk about August last year, we saw a lot of volatility.
07:47But if we talk about August last year, the government and RBI took good steps.
07:53RBI should be appreciated.
07:56If we compare the global economy with India, there is a lot of stability.
08:05It is difficult to talk about the rate in policy as of now.
08:09India's situation is not as bad as we have seen in the US, Europe, and other countries.
08:17I don't see any major changes in the interest rate.
08:21The UK, ECB, Bank of Canada, and Fed are in a rate cut.
08:27In the next 2-3 months, we may see a rate cut in India.
08:32India's condition is stable as compared to others.
08:37RBI's tightening in the past year can continue.
08:42There will be a fall.
08:44But as of now, there is no major fall in India.
08:48Let's talk about the bullion market.
08:51In the beginning, there was a slight correction in the bullion market.
08:55But today, there is a correction.
08:57What is your outlook for the short-term and long-term?
09:02We have heard that whenever geopolitical tensions arise, like the pandemic,
09:09or any global event, there is a buy in the safe haven.
09:15In 2020, when the pandemic was declared, there was a big correction in the equity market.
09:22There was a correction in gold and silver as well.
09:25To cover the loss in the equity market, the asset class that is making a profit,
09:30there is a sell-in.
09:32In March-April, there was a fall in gold and silver.
09:36In gold, there was a fall of 28,000.
09:39The level of 56,000 was seen in August 2020.
09:43Similarly, if we talk about the bullion market,
09:46in the last month, we saw a duty cut.
09:51Due to that adjustment, there was a big fall in gold and silver in the domestic market.
09:56But we saw a recovery in the prices as the demand in the physical market increased.
10:00Now, there is a turmoil in the global and domestic equity markets.
10:06I think gold should get a benefit.
10:09Due to yesterday's fall, there could be a severe volatility in the market in the next 2-3 days.
10:14Due to this, there is a little tension.
10:17In the short-term and long-term, I think gold should continue to rise.
10:21If we talk about the level wise, I think gold has become a strong base of 65,000-66,000.
10:27It does not seem to break soon.
10:29In February, we saw a low of 61,000 in gold.
10:33Now, I think it will become a new base of 65,000-66,000.
10:36On the higher side, I think by the end of the year,
10:39due to geopolitical tension, de-dollarization, carry trades,
10:43gold will recover to the 75,000-76,000 level that we saw in April-May.
10:51You are saying that gold will have a bull run.
10:54I think it will have a tiger run.
10:57As the tension in the Middle East is increasing, I think gold will increase faster.
11:02How far do you think gold will go by Diwali?
11:04What is your target by the end of the year?
11:06As I was saying, we saw a call for duty adjustment in the domestic market.
11:12But in the international market, geopolitical tension is increasing.
11:15Due to Bangladesh, China and India are also having an impact.
11:21There is geopolitical tension, central bank buying and inflation.
11:26I think by the end of the year, we will be able to cross the 74-75 zone.
11:34We might see a new high in gold by the end of the year.
11:39What is the target for Diwali?
11:42There is a lot of volatility.
11:44In September, we are seeing a rate cut.
11:46We know that in October, Diwali and Dhanteras will be there.
11:50If there is a rate cut in September, we will be able to cross the 74-75 zone.
11:59Volatility will be severe, so don't worry.
12:02As we do SIP in equity, so for long-term investors, do GIP.
12:10As we plan a monthly investment, we will be able to cross the 74-75 zone by the end of the year.
12:19Can the economic slowdown affect the demand for silver?
12:29Or will it continue?
12:34If we talk about silver, it is a dual metal.
12:39It has the property of both base metal and bullion.
12:42If we talk about gold, silver will benefit from it.
12:46There is a quote in English.
12:48Poor men gold.
12:50Those who can't buy gold, buy silver.
12:52There is an equation called gold-silver ratio.
12:56It tells us if silver is cheaper or more expensive than gold.
13:00This ratio is close to 88.
13:03If you look at the 50-year data, this ratio never stayed above 80.
13:08But due to COVID, we saw it go up to 125.
13:13If we talk about the long-term ratio, it will easily break the 72-75 level.
13:20Silver will outperform gold.
13:24But due to geopolitical tensions, the economy is not getting support.
13:30But in the next 3-6 months, there will be policy adjustments and cuts.
13:35The steps to manage the economy will make silver more favorable in the long term.
13:40If we talk about silver, it is still better than gold.
13:46It should benefit from ETFs, futures, and physicals.
13:52This was about the market.
13:55I want to ask one last question.
13:57What do you think about the fear of Mandi?
14:02There is a report with Goldman Sachs.
14:05People are nervous about it.
14:08What will you say about India?
14:10We will know when and how Mandi will come.
14:15But the signals are spilling out.
14:17In 2008, Mandi came one by one.
14:21We saw that it took a long time in the market.
14:24In 2016-2017, we saw that the scenario was set.
14:29But the US took a lot of steps and we were able to get out of it.
14:34There is a fear of Mandi in the global market after COVID.
14:39But the central bank steps are delaying it.
14:44I think the US numbers are getting worse.
14:51The US can be in Mandi's grasp.
14:54We will see the cascading effect in the global economy.
14:57Thank you so much for your time.
15:00Thank you so much.