Maduro 'will never release the results': 'Opposition very successful in evidencing its legitimacy'
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00:00Okay let's return to one of our top stories this morning in Venezuela where
00:04opposition leader Maria Carina Machado is calling for nationwide rallies to be
00:09held to denounce the disputed reelection of President Nicolas Maduro. We're going
00:14to try to reconnect with Professor Nicolas Forzans, he's co-director of the
00:19Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at the University of Essex. I
00:23think you're joining us by phone this time Professor. As I was asking you there
00:27just a little earlier do you believe that Maduro can be persuaded at this
00:31point to release vote tallies following last Sunday's election? Good morning and
00:37apologies for the problems we experienced. I think it's going to be a
00:41big ask because if we were to do so it would be unable to evidence its
00:47legitimacy. We know the opposition has ownership of the tallies, the voting
00:54tallies for around 80% of the polling stations and we know what the result
00:59shows. So Nicolas Maduro will never release the results, blaming a cyber
01:04attack which prevents him, at least officially, from releasing the results
01:08but it's not in his interest to do so. The opposition has been very successful
01:13in evidencing its international legitimacy and even maybe more
01:18importantly legitimacy within Venezuela. You could see protests starting on
01:24Monday, spontaneous protests from Venezuelans who accept the legitimacy of
01:31the opposition and those protests have increased over time since Monday morning
01:36and the people in Venezuela are convinced of the victory of the
01:41opposition. The international community is also convinced of the opposition's
01:46victory and so everything will depend on the attitude of the military in
01:50Venezuela. And Nicolas those protests have been taking place even in areas
01:54that were previously loyal to the regime. Will the popular anger that we're seeing
01:58on the streets have any impact on what happens next? I think that's the big
02:03question. We could see protests including in working-class neighborhoods in Caracas
02:09that historically supported the movement of Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro and
02:14those people have no longer faith in that political movement. So the
02:20question is about the military I think and in diplomacy. In terms of the
02:25military we know the military is deeply embedded in all aspects of the
02:31government in Venezuela and people at the top of the military have an interest
02:36in keeping Maduro in power but the rank-and-file in the military that's
02:41questionable. The second issue is about international diplomacy and we can see
02:46efforts by Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Lula of Brazil trying to
02:52convince Maduro to step down from power and we know there are negotiations
02:58including the United States in order to reduce the cost of stepping down
03:03from power. We need to remember there is a 15 million dollar bounty on the head
03:08of Maduro issued by the US Drug Enforcement Agency for alleged
03:14corruption and trafficking charges. So if we were to move forward with
03:21Venezuela I think the cost of stepping down from power has to be reduced and
03:25that will happen through negotiation and diplomacy but at the same time the
03:29attitude of the military will be critical in the days to come.
03:34Nicolas we'll have to leave it there for now but thank you so much for joining us
03:37and for reconnecting with us there. That is Professor Nicolas Forsens, he's
03:41co-director of the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies at the
03:45University of Essex in the UK.