NY Yankees Heat Up the Plate Against Toronto Blue Jays
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00:00And it starts in the Bronx with the New York Yankees.
00:06Yankees were fantastic against the Philadelphia Phillies, sweeping the Phillies as underdogs
00:10in all three games.
00:11If we look at the game today, they're not an underdog, but there is a catch to this
00:15one at a minus 178 price here for the Yanks and a total that's listed at nine.
00:20I just told you in the last couple of segments, when we were looking at pitchers that you
00:24possibly would want to fade on your card, none coming up bigger than Marcus Stroman,
00:29131 XFIP minus number in ERA over five over the past 60 days, and a high XFIP number coupled
00:36with a high Sierra price.
00:38So if we look at the matchups here coming into it, Toronto sort of woken up a bit, particularly
00:43with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
00:44He has been nothing short of sensational as of late, but Stroman last 30 days, 84 batters
00:51that he's faced.
00:52Take a look at the ISO power number, a 276, a weighted on base percentage, 439 against.
00:57And this is an equal opportunity chance.
00:59So many times we see these high numbers ago, like, oh, Donnie, it's only right-handed batters
01:02getting the best of them.
01:03It's only left-handed batters getting the best of them.
01:06Not the case.
01:07Lefties, a 250 ISO, righties, a 312 ISO.
01:10That doesn't pan out all that well.
01:11Now if we are looking at conditions at Yankee Stadium tonight, there is some rain and thunderstorms
01:16in the forecast.
01:17Guys, it's really muggy on the East Coast, 81 degree temperatures.
01:21And if we do get some rain that could affect the starters, because again, if it's raining
01:25in the second or third inning, maybe those starters don't come out, but we can't handicap
01:28that way as opposed to what the rain is going to do.
01:31But we can look at the lineups and pick some players that certainly make some sense.
01:34George Springer, 78 at bats against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days, a 264 ISO
01:40power number and a weighted on base percentage of 377.
01:43That's a good look on the card for a possible RBI chance.
01:46None better probably in this game than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 86 at bats against right-handed
01:51pitching over the past month, a 308 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 430.
01:57A little bit farther down there, Barger's got a 350 ISO, but only 21 at bats.
02:01So if I'm looking to cash in from a Toronto perspective, if it's from a total bases look,
02:06if it's from an RBI look, if it's from a home run look, it's going to be Springer and Guerrero.
02:11Flip it over to the other side here.
02:12Let's take a look at Kevin Gauffman on the mound today.
02:15And I'm going to take a look at where his numbers actually sit.
02:18He's 16th on the card out of 26 eligible pitchers over the past 60 days with at least
02:2320 innings pitched.
02:25His numbers come in at an XFIT minus number at a 104, much better than Strowman's 131.
02:30But here's the caveat, I just told you maybe two, maybe three batters in that Toronto lineup
02:35that possibly could do damage against Marcus Strowman, or at least have the numbers to
02:39do damage.
02:40You look at that Yankees lineup, there is a lot to love on that card today.
02:43However, you look at Gauffman, decent numbers.
02:47Let's take a look at those non-analytical numbers with isopower and also weighted on
02:50base percentages.
02:51His last 115 batters that he's faced over the past 30 days, how about a 112 isopower
02:57number?
02:58Had a weighted on base percentage of 251, a strikeout number to left-handed batters
03:02at 28%.
03:03Keep in mind, Gauffman is a right-handed pitcher, but when you look at that Yankees lineup today,
03:08due to leadoff is Alec Verdugo.
03:10Take him out of the equation.
03:11Take a look at the next three guys, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Austin Wells.
03:1676 plate appearances, 80 plate appearances, and 67 plate appearances.
03:21But if we're looking at who's gonna do the most damage, you might as well flip a coin,
03:26which is crazy to say.
03:27Soto, 76 at bats, a 424 isopower number, and a weighted on base percentage of 517.
03:33That's off the charts, off the charts.
03:35Take a look at Aaron Judge, 80 at bats over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching.
03:39A 308 isopower number, and a weighted on base percentage of 475.
03:44Austin Wells, catching, batting lefty, a 327 iso, and a weighted on base percentage of
03:49399.
03:50And it doesn't stop there.
03:51You know who's been the man of the hour right now for the New York Yankees?
03:54That's been Jazz Chisholm.
03:55His last 72 at bats against right-handed pitching, quite frankly, were just in Philadelphia,
03:59it felt like he had 72 at bats.
04:01A 302 iso, and a weighted on base percentage of 402.
04:05And also Ben Rice, down in that eight hole, a 328 isopower number.
04:09There's a lot of numbers to look forward to.
04:11So when you see that high price on the New York Yankees, there is a little bit of a buyer
04:15beware.
04:16Because if you're expecting Gauffman to be decent, and Stroman to be not as good as Gauffman,
04:21they'll be in that matchup.
04:22Do I love the side per se?
04:23No, I don't.
04:24But I actually think there's more of a chance for runs in this game than not, because the
04:28Yankees are coming in absolutely red hot at the plate, and Gauffman, not calm, he is on
04:32the road in a true hitter's ballpark.
04:34And again, these heat, muggy conditions, that's certainly something to keep an eye on here.