Ismail Haniyeh’s Death: Will Hamas Chief’ Unexpected Demise Alter the Outcome of U.S. Elections| Watch
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#IsmailHaniyeh #Hamas #MiddleEastConflict #Iran #Israel #GlobalReactions #EscalationWarnings #Tehran #HamasLeader #InternationalAffairs #Hezbollah #PalestinianIslamicJihad #PeaceEfforts #MiddleEast #BreakingNews
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00:00Hello and welcome to this very special broadcast on One India in the series, as mentioned earlier,
00:06of getting you the voices from all stakeholders in this war that is unfolding between Israel
00:15and Hamas. Initially then roped in Hezbollah to Iran, Lebanon, and the wider network of United
00:23States. And just a matter of time and we'll see maybe some Russian and Chinese role also
00:30creeping in to discuss the matters further in light of the killing of Hamas leader Ismail
00:36Haniyeh. It's my pleasure today to be joined by Irina Sukerman. She is a U.S. national security
00:42and geopolitical analyst, also a fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and a fellow
00:48at the Arabian Peninsula Institute. Irina joins us from all the way from New York.
00:54Hello there, Irina, how are you? Good, thank you so much for the invitation.
00:59Thank you, Irina, for taking time out. Irina, first things first, given the recent assassination
01:05of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, what are the strategic implications of his death for Hamas and the
01:12broader Palestinian movement? Well, his death is a huge blow for a number of reasons. First of all,
01:19he was considered a political leader of the movement and in that capacity he brought the
01:26international legitimacy to what is otherwise considered to be a terrorist organization
01:31by many countries from the United States to some of the Middle Eastern stakeholders.
01:39And we see that from the reaction from British media such as the BBC and other international
01:46media, they mourned his death as if he were a legitimate political leader due to the fact that
01:53he was successfully able to present this very smooth image of someone who has negotiations
02:03over the hostages, who travels and meets with leaders from countries like Tehran,
02:08currently playing a major role in the Middle East. At the same time, however, let's not forget that
02:14this billionaire was also someone responsible for the very crisis that he is now negotiating.
02:20He was the one who ordered the October 7th attack which created the hostage crisis.
02:30He became a billionaire by virtue of stealing billions in humanitarian aid from Palestinians
02:37and regardless of the fact of how Hamas was elected into power, arguably by murdering
02:47parts of the opposition in Gaza, he certainly lost a great deal of political legitimacy,
02:53even if there was some to begin with. So now we are facing a major crisis because, first of all,
03:02the question is who is going to step into his shoes and does it really matter? Because by
03:07assassinating this symbolic individual who up until this point was enjoying a relative diplomatic
03:15immunity, there is a very strong message that Hamas is back to being treated like a terrorist
03:20organization and not a political movement, not a government of Gaza. And so nobody is safe,
03:29there's no holds barred and anyone can be assassinated and killed just as Haniyeh,
03:38particularly if they refuse to cooperate and continue playing games over hostages,
03:43threatening regional security and otherwise acting outside any sort of political legitimacy.
03:51It's also a symbol of weakness to both Hamas and Iran which could not keep its guests
04:00safe even within its borders. So if Haniyeh is not safe while visiting a presidential inauguration,
04:06who then is? What could happen to Iranian military leaders or officials if with this
04:17level of precision Haniyeh could be liquidated inside Iran? That also brings a question just how
04:25much Hamas can actually continue moving forward if their leadership in Doha is being taken out. Yes,
04:34all of these people can ultimately be replaced, but if they're being replaced as soon as they're
04:42killed, then there is no continuity, there's no consolidation of power, there's no trust.
04:49And it's very difficult to keep networks running if your top leadership is getting killed. So now
04:55Hamas is threatening retaliation in Israel within hours according to Hamas spokesman, but their
05:02activity inside Gaza is limited because they no longer have access to Rafah and to the tunnels,
05:09they can no longer bring in new weapons. So what they can do is continue insurgency with what they
05:17have, they can continue insurgency inside the West Bank where they've established a growing presence
05:24and they can act in conjunction with other proxies outside Gaza. Right, right Irina. Getting to the
05:31point when you mentioned that Ismail Haniyeh being killed in Iran, unsafe there, this is a plot which
05:42many are saying that because of this kind of inter-country attack where one country is attacking
05:50the other one, there are allegations suggesting a possible United States hand in the assassination
05:57of Haniyeh. So based on your analysis, Irina, how plausible is it that the U.S. was involved
06:03and what would be the strategic motivation behind such an involvement if there is any from United
06:09States? I think this particular administration was genuinely dedicated to a diplomatic solution
06:17with Hamas and we can see that from their most recent statements from the State Department,
06:24push and pressure on Netanyahu to continue negotiating and from the recent apparent
06:30diplomatic success which stalled over military ramifications of Israel's potential withdrawal
06:38from Rafah to which both sides would not agree. But we can see even from Blinken's statement to
06:44the Emir of Qatar following Haniyeh's assassination that U.S. is continuing to treat
06:54these talks as legitimate and still continues to give difference to Hamas as a potential
07:00negotiating partner. So I don't really think that U.S. was directly involved. Did they have
07:05some knowledge of what was about to transpire? If they didn't, then our intelligence is not doing
07:13its job. Can they necessarily prevent Israel from taking out an internationally recognized
07:19terrorist outside the territory where U.S. has its base? Not necessarily, especially since there's no
07:27reason for them not to do that. There's been a recent escalation of activity which is a threat
07:34to U.S. interests in the region. So it's in U.S. interests if there is very strong deterrence that
07:41also according to this administration does not directly involve attacking Iran itself. And
07:47it hasn't. This was a Hamas terrorist that was liquidated and it's not like there is a signature
07:55on who exactly did it. Right. Given the recent visit of Benjamin Netanyahu to the United States,
08:04how might Prime Minister Netanyahu be leveraging the U.S.-Israel relationship
08:09to further his own political and security objectives like the one fighting Hamas,
08:14particularly in light of the recent developments with Iran as well? Irina? Well, I think any leader,
08:21especially in the middle of a war, will be using and leveraging any relations he has in order to
08:27achieve security for his people. Netanyahu, you can say, is also using it to stay in power and to
08:34retain legitimacy despite a domestic political crisis. But let's face it, the situation in the
08:41U.S. is far from clear. We don't have a clear plan from either of the leading
08:47candidates over their plans for the Middle East. Neither Trump nor Kamala Harris have articulated
08:54the specific measures they would take to bring this crisis to an end. Meanwhile,
09:00Biden's seemingly sudden departure threw their ongoing plans into chaos because
09:07the Biden administration, for all intents and purposes, is a sitting duck. Once the president
09:13announces he is no longer in the running, his officials are not likely to be listened to.
09:19So, in terms of trying to get something out of this administration, I think for Netanyahu,
09:25there's not much either way. It's very obvious that until after the elections, nothing serious
09:31will be undertaken and this administration will just try to avoid a major escalation with the
09:37means available as much as possible. I think the purpose of the visit was to fill out the
09:45intentions of the other candidates and to see what sort of support can be reached with Congress,
09:52which also is facing a re-election for the most part.
09:56Both Congress and Republicans and Democrats met Netanyahu, actually met both of them,
10:01just to make sure whoever comes into power, you know, is on the right side of the things.
10:06One final question, Irina. Considering the secrecy and lack of transparency surrounding the details
10:13of Haniyeh's assassination, what might be the reason behind this? And how does it compare
10:19to other similar incidents in terms of geopolitical strategy, media management? How
10:25is Iran going to convince the world that yes, Israel came in and attacked this particular
10:31place and killed Haniyeh? Well, I think the question is who had the means, the motive,
10:38and the opportunity. Quite frankly, that's a number of actors, but only two can be taken
10:44seriously because only two have been involved in any sort of major operations. In the past,
10:50US liquidated Qasem Soleimani, giving a major blow to Iranian operations, but that happened
10:56in Iraq, not in Iran. US has not attacked Iran or anyone in Iran in recent memory,
11:06if ever under the Islamic Republic. Israel, on the other hand, has had a series of
11:16successful assassinations against nuclear scientists in Iran, as well as other operations
11:23inside Iran. In terms of opportunity, we should look at the geopolitical context,
11:29because Israel is said to be behind other recent major assassinations, including
11:36the immediate assassination of Sohar, the major Lebanese Hezbollah leader, who is also part of
11:47some of the leading operations. This happened right before the assassination. This happened
11:54after rumors leaked, after Netanyahu's return to Israel from the US, that Israel would be
12:01targeting all of the proxies to upend the order of the events in the Middle East after the deadly
12:11Hezbollah attack on a Jewish village, which led to the deaths of 13 children,
12:19which followed numerous attacks, escalating the crisis in the Middle East, who is planning an
12:27attack inside Israel, Hezbollah increasingly escalating and now killing mass civilians and
12:34creating a major problem with the Jews, and of course, Hamas continuing threats and its activity
12:40in rocket fire and so forth. After these rumors leaked out, this was expected, this series of
12:47attacks on senior leadership following the model of attacking by now and killing now 500 Hezbollah
12:55commanders. This was not anything that should be particularly surprising.
12:59This is exactly the sort of thing that can be expected after certain red lines have been crossed.
13:05Right. Now, one final question. You are in the United States. You belong to Ukraine,
13:10born in Ukraine, if I'm not wrong, and moved to the United States here. There is a war going on
13:17between Russia and Ukraine as well. The United States has been giving support to Ukraine,
13:22this time around for Israel. The United States, again, is there as big brother, as it is known
13:27about. How safe and how relevant do you think the United States is amid these two wars,
13:35especially with an election at hand? I think there is definitely a plan to try to disrupt
13:41not only the elections, but to cause damage in the United States as much as possible.
13:46There has been a recent foiled attempt by Iran to try to assassinate Donald Trump again,
13:54after a previous failed attempt to assassinate a number of his officials. There's been suspicious
14:00deaths by Russian ex-officials, dissidents, and FBI informants inside the U.S., and of course,
14:10numerous active measures of various sorts and propaganda efforts. More recently, we have seen
14:17Iranians being involved in civil unrest on campuses, as well as Russian and Chinese election
14:25meddling and polarization efforts. All of this seems to be part of a growing network of interests.
14:33We have seen recently that the Ukrainian External Intelligence Service
14:38struck a Russian base in Syria. What was happening there is of significance to both crises. Of course,
14:49Russian troops are in Ukraine, but they have also been moving closer to the northern border of the
14:57Golan Heights, annexed by Israel, and presenting an immediate danger to Israel. They've been
15:03apparently coordinating this military activity with the Iranian gestures by RGC, by various
15:10militias in Syria and Iraq. We are seeing these interests, which previously appeared to be
15:18separate, or at least Israel treated them as separate, becoming increasingly integrated.
15:24We are seeing that Iran is increasingly open and coordinating with other countries,
15:31and other countries are also increasingly open in admitting that their interests are not only
15:38localized, but globalized. Irina, thank you so much for speaking to us. It was Irina Sukerman,
15:46U.S. National Secretary and geopolitical analyst, fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs,
15:52and also a fellow at the Arabian Peninsula Institute. Irina, thank you so much. I wish
15:57you a very good day, and we hope to see you more on One India. Absolutely. We'll be happy to do so,
16:03and thank you so much. Thank you. Don't miss out. Follow One India for real-time updates.