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00:00A breakdown around the bigs on this Wednesday live right here
00:07on the early line on Sports Grid. A ton of day baseball
00:11that starts a little bit after noon Eastern time. That is also
00:15a feature in Philadelphia. It's game three between the Yankees
00:20and the Phillies. The Phillies have lost the opening two
00:23against New York. The Phillies are just three and eight
00:26since the all-star break. It's Donnie's team versus Zeno's
00:30team. But Philadelphia is a home favorite at the break
00:33today at minus 124. Nine and a half is the total. Zeno, what
00:38do you like in Philadelphia?
00:42Oh God. By the way, if you guys heard of that pitcher who
00:46started for the Yankees today, yeah, his name is Nestor
00:49Cortez. He's he's a slob. Okay and he is going to get rock
00:54today. He's got a 6.1 ERA off road which is three and a half
00:59runs high over three and a half runs higher than it is at home
01:01opposing here is a batting 313 against him. By the way, do you
01:05guys know who's starting for the Phillies? His name is
01:07Christopher Sanchez. You know what what arm he throws with
01:10guys? Lefty. You know what the Yankees do? Hit lefties. See
01:15Sean Menea and what's their kid Jose Catana from the Mets when
01:19they couldn't score any runs against those guys. Why?
01:22Because they're lefties. So, this is Phillies all the way at
01:25a very manageable number here. I mean, look, I always ask the
01:29dumb question in betting. Phillies aren't really going to
01:31get swept at home, are they? Yes, theoretically, they
01:34actually could but you know, I don't see it happening. I like
01:37the Phillies today. Favorite all three games. The
01:40Philadelphia Phillies hoping to get one of these and also if
01:43you like weather conditions that are conducive to hitting
01:45close to 90° at first pitch, muggy conditions, double digit
01:48winds blowing out to right field. Let's see if we can get
01:51some runs. That's why we're posting at a nine and a half.
01:53If we do get to those grimace Mets here, they're taking on
01:56the Minnesota Twins once again today. Pablo Lopez, Luis
01:58Severino, a total in this game, eight and a half and a slight
02:01favorite at a minus 112 price to the Minnesota Twins. Do the
02:05Twins bounce back today or do they struggle once again at the
02:08plate against the Mets? I mean, guys, like I should have
02:13mentioned the Mets before but are they for real now? Because
02:17they look really for it look very for real. They feel like
02:21this is a team that's going to make the playoffs. That said,
02:26Luis Severino against Pablo Lopez feels like one of the
02:29more lopsided pitching matchups I've seen in the last year or
02:32two. Despite Severino's decent numbers this year, seems to
02:36gotten him back on track. You know, he's not a guy that I put
02:40a whole lot of faith in. Granted, he's been a lot better
02:43at home this year. Four and one with a 2.8 ERA. You know,
02:47he's keeping opposing hitters in the ballpark for the most
02:49part. So, this is a spot here for Severino at home where it
02:54feels like he may have an ability to excel. I would look
02:58to a first five under. I don't expect a lot of runs to be
03:01scored here. Much like we saw last night in that two nothing
03:03game. I I think both these these lineups are not you know,
03:07we know the Mets don't hit as well at home as they do on the
03:10road and the Twins don't really hit that well ever anywhere but
03:13particularly on the road. I look at this as a lower
03:16scoring game but again with the Mets like they're winning high
03:19scoring games. They're winning low scoring games. It's like
03:22pretty legit guys. Yeah, the New York Mets fifteen to two
03:27over Minnesota on Monday. Two nothing yesterday looking for
03:31the sweep. The Mets have won seven of their last nine. New
03:34York is seventeen and nine in July and Zeno their World
03:38Series price in the last 48 hours has gotten longer by
03:41fifteen bucks. Make it make sense but maybe some value on
03:46the amazings. The rubber match today in Milwaukee. The Braves
03:49a slight road favorite with Chris Sale on the bump against
03:53the Milwaukee Brewers. Minus one twenty-six. Over under of
03:57seven and a half. Milwaukee won the opener. Atlanta even the
04:01set yesterday. Who takes the series of the rubber match on
04:04this Wednesday afternoon? I mean, this is a relatively
04:09discounted price for Chris Sale, isn't it? Like, we don't
04:13see Chris Sale, you know, play these kind of numbers all that
04:18often. So, it's very tough for me to ignore that. Atlanta
04:24seems like since the all-star break, their offense has shown
04:27up a little bit better. Top twelve and runs scored since
04:31returning from the break which makes me feel like maybe
04:33they're starting to turn a corner here a little bit.
04:35Freddy Peralta who starts from Milwaukee. Higher ERA at home
04:39this year than he does on the road. Um I kind of find it hard
04:44knock to back Chris Sale here. Uh both of these teams have
04:47really good bullpens so they sort of cancel each other out
04:49but if you're asking me and again I know that Milwaukee
04:52hits lefties well and they certainly scored more runs at
04:54home uh than most teams in Major League Baseball but don't
04:58we default to the Cy Young favorite here is having the
05:00edge? I would probably think so. Third highest over
05:04percentage in MLB. That's the Brew Crew. Fifty-seven percent
05:08of their games. Still the highest under percentage in MLB.
05:11That's the Braves. Sixty-one point four percent of their
05:15games. Mark Zito as always. Thank you for being here on
05:18this Wednesday. Our three is up next on Sportsbook. Anyway,
05:22let's go to Major League Baseball now for some baseball
05:25breakdowns. Will it be a sweep in Philly or will the Phils as
05:29Donnie said get off the mat finally here in this midweek
05:33set against the Yankees. Nine and a half the total. The line
05:36working against Philadelphia. Those the overnight and early
05:38morning numbers. Minus 136. Now just minus 122. Donnie, will
05:44Philly avoid the sweep or will the Yankees take all three
05:47against the Phils in the city of brotherly love this week?
05:50Yeah, we had Mark on earlier and really the key to this game
05:53is the Yankees really do not hit left-handed pitching all
05:56that well. First three guys in the lineup anticipated today.
05:59They hit well. The rest of the guys, they are terrible against
06:03left-handed pitching which Christopher Sanchez is a very
06:05good left-handed pitcher. Conversely, on the opposite
06:07side, Nestor Cortez is going to take them out here. He
06:10struggled with 71 batters, which are right handers, which
06:12is going to get primarily in this lineup. Obviously, a 403
06:16ISO awaited on base percentage of 483 through those 71
06:19batters like the right-handed batter should have a great
06:21advantage, but let's just take a look at lefty and righty
06:24batters. How they're handling from the Phillies perspective
06:26up against left-handed pitching over the past 30 days. 610
06:29waited on base percentage for Schwarzer Hayes 342 Harper 372
06:33Boehm 450 Castellanos 474 Weston Wilson 508 Garrett Stubbs
06:39377. The Phillies should win this game, but then again, the
06:41Phillies should have won the first two games. They've had
06:43the advantage. Sometimes you just have to ride the momentum.
06:46I do think the Phillies win, but I thought they would win the
06:48past two games. Who knows at this point? The Yanks just are
06:51playing good baseball in Philadelphia in hitting
06:53weather and we'll see. We'll find out soon. They've been
06:57able to rally. We have seen two very high scoring games between
07:00the Yankees and the Philz total of nine and a half. Donnie
07:03mentioned it. It's hot. It's humid here in the northeast.
07:06The wind is blowing out at the bank ball should be flying. The
07:11Philz lost their final set before the all-star break
07:14against the A's. They have lost their last three sets now
07:17following the break now make it four. They're hoping to not be
07:20swept here by the Yankees. That's five losing series in a
07:23row for Philadelphia. They're just three and eight since the
07:27all-star break. Now we go to Milwaukee rubber match today
07:31between the Brewers and the Braves a ton of day baseball.
07:34By the way, full 15 game slate around the bigs nine in
07:37afternoon hours. It's Milwaukee and Atlanta. Freddie Peralta
07:41gets the start for the Brewers Chris Sale, the National League
07:44Cy Young favorite now on the other side for Atlanta minus
07:48118 total up by a hook Donnie, but still a low number of seven
07:51and a half. Yeah, it does look like a cheap line here from a
07:55Chris Sale perspective because if we just take a look at the
07:57batters here on Atlanta, typically we don't like them
07:59all that much on a day-to-day basis, but Freddie Peralta
08:02struggling over the past 93 batters. He's faced a 198 ISO,
08:06which is slightly elevated and a weighted on base percentage
08:08of 361, which is elevated. Take a look at some of these ISO
08:11power numbers now for the Atlanta Braves over the past
08:14month against right-handed pitching Riley 301 Ozuna 321
08:17Solaire 177 Darnold 184 Rosario 182 Merrifield is going to line
08:22up at 284. We'll see if that plays out and RCA not too bad
08:25at 164. I think the better lineup and the better pitcher
08:29both coming from the Atlanta side today, even though they're
08:31a heavy public favor with sale on the mound sale in that Cy
08:34Young award-winning market needs a good effort today. I
08:36think Atlanta gets the job done again again against the Milwaukee
08:40Brewers when you look at the National League Cy Young race
08:43as of this moment, Chris Sale minus 110 Paul Skeens
08:47continues to climb up the board plus 170 Zach Wheeler after the
08:51bad performance against the Yankees to start off this week
08:54plus 370 yesterday, San Diego rallied in the ninth against
08:59Blake Trinen and walked it off in extras in the opener against
09:03the Dodgers in this California clash in the midweek set San
09:06Diego playing great baseball. They make the move for Tanner
09:09Scott to bolster the back end of the bullpen. The Padres have
09:13won eight of their last nine. The Dodgers still seven and four
09:17since the all-star break a good match up during prime time
09:21tonight in San Diego DRS. You said earlier in the show, you
09:25thought San Diego would take both of the first two games
09:28against the Dodgers a home favorite today. Clayton Kershaw
09:31gets the start for LA Dylan Cease makes his first start
09:35since throwing a no-hitter last week. Slight favorite and they
09:39deserve to be here. Ben Clayton Kershaw on the mound coming
09:41back still trying to work his way into that rotation doesn't
09:44have great statistics yet, but again still early technically
09:46in his season. If we're looking from a San Diego spot here, the
09:49first four batters in that lineup have actually done very
09:52well against left-handed pitching in limited at bats
09:54over the past 30 days. Pro Far Salado, Bogarts and Machado
09:57would be keys to my victory here for the San Diego Padres,
10:00but if you flip it to the other side, Cease has been great
10:03here. Take a look at 518 batters on the season with 150
10:06ISO and a 264 weighted on base percentage until we get that
10:09full goal lineup for the Los Angeles Dodgers. I'm going to
10:12take the Padres today. Let's stay hot Padres and Chief Bryce
10:15Crom. I think they can W. We'll talk underdog numbers and plus
10:20money on the money line up next. A couple of clubs that
10:23are underdogs today on this Wednesday in Major League
10:25Baseball that are rarely booked as an underdog, the Yankees and
10:29their series finale in Philadelphia looking to sweep
10:33the fills. The Yanks have been an underdog in each of the
10:35first two games of this set. They've won outright the Yankees
10:39by far Donnie the best underdog team straight up in Major League
10:43Baseball 16 and six, but only 22 times the Dodgers have been
10:49booked as a dog the least amount of times around the
10:51Major Leagues this season just 12, but the Dodgers bad four
10:56and eight when booked as an underdog. They're an underdog
10:59today in San Diego as we shared against Dylan Cease in the red
11:03hot Padres elsewhere in some afternoon baseball in the bigs.
11:07We go to city field where maybe over the last two months, the
11:10hottest team has remained the New York Mets. They've won
11:13seven of their last nine games, seventeen and nine in this
11:16month of July on its final day and a very slight almost
11:21pickum price, but an underdog for New York at home against
11:24Pablo Lopez and the twins and by the way, you're just looking
11:28at better pictures on the mound today. It's going to be Pablo
11:30Lopez. You take a look at his last 60 days on the card today.
11:33He actually has a 77 X fit minus and a 3.21 X fit number
11:37that is fantastic. Now granted you saw the way the Mets have
11:40won high scoring game low scoring game still picking up
11:43wins here and carrying that momentum over that could be key,
11:45but even just in the past 30 days for Pablo Lopez. If we
11:48look at his walk rate, it's below 5% strikeout rate above
11:5125% power number 099 weighted on base percentage 279. If we
11:56can combine combined lefty and righty batters, if we flip it
11:59over to Minnesota, I told you yesterday, what's the Achilles
12:02heel right now that they just can't hit that's left handed
12:05pitching Luis Severino's on the mound today. That's a right
12:07handed pitcher. He hasn't been all that bad, but if I'm
12:10looking for a bounce back spot where Minnesota can win a game
12:12on the road against a very good Mets team right now, it would
12:15be today. I get the lean towards the Minnesota twins
12:17better pitcher and not a left hander that they're facing from
12:21their one through nine perspective. Yeah, I like that
12:24look today for the twins to try to avoid the sweep against the
12:29New York Mets. Now we go to Houston where the Astros are a
12:33minus 215 favorite against the Pirates. Alright, that checks
12:36out from Rivaldez gets to start for the Stros, but in fact,
12:40it's the Buccos looking for the sweep in H town. Will that
12:44greater than $2 money line price proved to be correct
12:47today in Houston? It will frame Rivaldez having a very
12:51good season. Obviously the last 30 days, 98 batters. He's
12:53facepalm. How about an 056? I want to wait it on base
12:56percentage of 283 and a K right at about 30%. You take a look
13:00at the lineup today for the Pittsburgh Pirates and we see
13:02this quite a bit. How does this line up fair against left
13:04handed pitching? Not all that well, you take a look at you
13:07know newer guys in that lineup per se Brian de la Cruz,
13:10Connor, Joe, Brian Hayes, Joey Bart, Triolo, zero ISO power
13:14numbers against. So if we're just looking from a I have the
13:17better picture on the mound by a wide margin Houston and the
13:19better hitters at the dish today, the Houston Astros
13:22should win going away against the Pittsburgh Pirates today.
13:26Let's go under the arch in Saint Louis. It's the Rangers
13:29and the Cardinals some more day baseball in a dead even pick
13:32them minus 108 on both sides. The over under is nine. The
13:37Rangers took the first game of the set. Saint Louis got the
13:40Max Scherzer and Texas yesterday who takes game number
13:44three on this Wednesday afternoon. Yeah, don't it
13:47looks like we have the starter listed here for Saint Louis. I
13:49believe it's McGreevy don't have much numbers on him that
13:52could be listed. So if we focus on the Texas Rangers side of it,
13:55Andrew Heaney will be out there. Here's the interesting
13:57part about Heaney struggles against left handed batters.
14:00He's a lefty, but here's the issue that we're going to take
14:02place. How many right handed batters are going to be in the
14:04lineup for the Saint Louis Cardinals? Looks like Wynn
14:06Contreras, Fam, Arenado Goldschmidt, the first five
14:09batters, all righties, but then you actually have three of the
14:11final four batters in that lineup lefties, which
14:13typically you'd want as many right handed batters as you
14:15can, but not necessarily against Andrew Heaney. So
14:18Donovan, Newpar, and Siani will be in that lineup, but they
14:21haven't had a lot of success against left handed pitching.
14:23It's a tough one to give my opinion on. Also, I think the
14:26odds maker has been based on some of these numbers. They're
14:28having a tough time. This is a true coin flip at this point
14:31between Texas and Saint Louis. The 24 year old Mitch McGreevy
14:37who turned 24 earlier this month, the Cardinals first
14:40round draft pick from 2021. He was taken 18th overall a few
14:45summers ago. According to a report that I just read, his
14:48prospect stock has fallen a little bit, but still making his
14:52major league baseball debut today with some day baseball in
14:56Saint Louis. High scoring games so far this week in Boston
15:00between the Red Sox and the Mariners. A little bit later in
15:03the afternoon, but still afternoon baseball. Seattle the
15:06road favorite at minus 116. The total nine and a half. 21 total
15:11runs. The Red Sox winning 14 to 7 on Monday. 16 total combined
15:16runs yesterday. Seattle taking game 2, 10 to 6. Does the
15:19offense continue in this Boston battle? I mean, George Kirby,
15:231.88 ERA over the past 60 days. That should tell you the tale
15:27here is analytical numbers fantastic as well. Take a look
15:29at some of these others. 123 batters he's faced over the
15:32past month. ISO power number 043. Weighted on base percentage
15:36245. Now something has to give you. I just told you how good
15:39Kirby's been against anybody he's facing. But the one thing
15:42that we do know that the Boston Red Sox love to hit that's
15:44right handed pitching. Duran, Abreu, Yoshida, Devers, O'Neal,
15:48Smith, all sky high ISO power numbers and weighted on base
15:51percentages here. But here now we're taking a look at Seattle.
15:54So many times we line up that roster one through nine in the
15:57past couple weeks, but you know what? I don't care who the
15:59pitcher is. They can't hit the better pitcher by far on the
16:01mound today is with the Mariners. Bayou is going to be
16:04on the mound for the Red Sox. A right handed pitcher average
16:07stats over the past 30 days, but take a look at this now.
16:09Randy Rosarena 182 ISO power number Cal Raleigh 210 Polanco
16:13216 Moore 176 Vossler 176 Heinegger 292. You're actually
16:18getting decent lineups now with the addition of some more power
16:21bats in that lineup. I'm going to go ahead and take the
16:23Mariners again day number two against the Boston Red Sox.
16:27DRS from the analytical perspective almost feels like a
16:30light price for Seattle today with the better pitcher on the
16:33bump. Even on the road, the Red Sox struggling since returning
16:36from the all-star break just three and eight, but the word
16:41struggle has a different definition for the White Sox.
16:44They have lost 16 consecutive games trying to avoid a sweep
16:49at home today against the Royals. Doesn't seem as though
16:52the oddsmakers expect that to be the case. KCA minus 196
16:56favorite with Brady Singer on the bump. Will it be 17 L's in a
17:00row for the White Sox today? There's once a game called
17:04Mortal Kombat that I used to play it at the end of the game.
17:07If you did well, it was fatality and that's what probably
17:10you're going to get today from the Chicago White Sox. A bad
17:12pitcher and a worse lineup. Forget about even the Kansas
17:15City Royals who's on the mound today. Don't worry who's going
17:18to be hitting for the Rose. Don't worry. This is a bad
17:20baseball team as you're going to find that's going to take
17:22place out there. Basically a $2 dog at home. Ridiculous man,
17:26Chicago White Sox bad baseball team can't bet them.
17:30There's a new market on FanDuel called Chicago's next win.
17:34White Sox next win. A ton of plus money if you have the
17:38Cahoney. DRS, we'll talk tomorrow. Enjoy the money line.
17:41More on the early line next.