Olympic Basketball Analysis: USA vs South Sudan Best Bets
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00:00In Olympic assessment live right here on this Wednesday on the early line on SportsGrid
00:08featuring Sporting News' Carlin Gay. Joining us here on this Wednesday, a huge day of Olympic
00:14basketball for Team USA against the squad that gave the Americans probably their biggest
00:20scare and their biggest test during that five-game exhibition match. It is South Sudan. Carlin,
00:27we appreciate the time. Thank you for joining us here on this Wednesday. Thank you, Benny
00:32and Ducat's Donny. Good to be with you guys this early morning. Happy to be in the greatest
00:37country in the world, too. We are very, very happy to have you here. So before we get to
00:42the game breakdown, the second for the U.S. at the Olympic Games in Paris against South
00:47Sudan in just a moment. Here's where we stand right now. A ton of action yesterday in Group
00:54A, the team that is favored to win the silver perhaps. Canada has won both of its first
00:59two games. You do get a point for a loss. So Australia and Spain have three. Giannis
01:06Antetokounmpo and Greece yet to win a game at the Olympiad. Germany off to a perfect
01:122-0 start. The host nation in France off to a 2-0 start despite a scare yesterday in overtime
01:18against the Japanese and Group C action on this Wednesday. Carlin, outside of Team USA
01:24and Group C, what has stood out to you most about the Olympic basketball on the men's side so far
01:29in Paris? I'm actually pretty shocked that Greece hasn't been able to pull off a win just yet. You
01:34know, you have one of the best players in the world, Giannis Antetokounmpo. If you asked anybody,
01:38he's one of the top five players on the planet. And, you know, regardless of what's around him,
01:43he's able to elevate the team to a level where they should be overachieving. And this
01:47Greece team is pretty solid when you look at where the players are coming from. You know,
01:51some of them are playing high-level Europe. A lot of the players have been together for a number of
01:56years, and they have a pretty good coach, right? It's Spanoulis, who was a former player and knows
02:00what it takes to get it done at this level. So I'm pretty shocked that Giannis hasn't been able
02:04to get them over the top. It's going to be very hard for them to get to the quarterfinals round.
02:09Like, it's a must-win scenario now the rest of the way if they plan on standing on a podium at
02:13the end of the day. Carlin, if we take a look at the standings right now, Group A and Group B,
02:17each played two games apiece. And Group C, we're still waiting on the second games here. So if we
02:22sort of re-rack the tournament itself, Team USA, obviously a prohibitive favorite here at a minus
02:26500 price, followed by Canada, Germany, and France. If we're looking at these teams through
02:31playing two games, or sometimes a minimum of one, what have we seen that we liked from maybe a team
02:35or two and maybe disliked? Are there any high risers that maybe changed your opinion from
02:39pre-tournament here to now-tournament action? Yeah, I'm honestly interested in what Germany
02:45has been able to do in the tournament. Yes, I know they won the World Cup a year ago.
02:49You know, they were able to go through that tournament unscathed. And it's relatively the
02:52same unit that is playing in this Olympia. But what's different about this is the fact that the
02:57rest of the teams are different, right? Canada has Jamal Murray. They did not have him last time
03:02around. The U.S. has a completely different roster outside of Anthony Edwards and Tyrus Halliburton.
03:07So what Germany has been able to do so far in this tournament is solidifying, like, hey,
03:12we won the World Cup and we mean business. We're here to win a medal. If it's going to be gold,
03:17silver or bronze, we'll find out. But I do have more kind of more eyes on what Germany has been
03:22able to do. I was a little down on them. Honestly, I didn't think they would make it out of the group
03:26stage. Here they are. They're working towards the goal of making it to the podium. The Wagner
03:32brothers, Mo and Franz, playing very, very well so far for Team Germany. All right, let's get to
03:39the second day of action in Group C in Men's Olympic Basketball. Of course, it was the fourth
03:46of five games in the exhibition match that caught everybody by surprise. It would have been one of
03:51the biggest stutters in international basketball in history. South Sudan and the United States.
03:57In London, the U.S. prevails 101-100, thanks to LeBron James. But South Sudan had many opportunities,
04:05in the final 10 seconds, to win that game outright, booked as a 40-point underdog,
04:10plus against the Americans. Now this game is for real. The United States, a 28.5-point favorite
04:18against South Sudan, who won its Olympic opener by 11 points, 90-79 on Sunday afternoon against
04:25Puerto Rico. So a 28.5-point spread that has obviously varied a ton from what the line was
04:31for the exhibition match just a few days ago, Carlin. 31.5-point spread in favor of Team USA.
04:38Everybody remembering the Olympic exhibition match. How competitive do you expect today's
04:45game to be in Paris? Yeah, the South Sudan game for South Sudan was a little bit of a gift and
04:51a curse, right? They got a chance to go toe-to-toe with Team USA. They had a chance to win that game
04:56really late, as you mentioned. And they got that confidence coming into the Olympic games and
05:00saying, like, we could compete with the best team on the planet. The downside of that is,
05:05now the best team on the planet knows that you can compete. So they're not going to walk into
05:09this game, you know, kind of giving you an opportunity to get off on the right foot.
05:13So that 29-point spread is very interesting, especially in FIBA basketball, because point
05:19difference matters, right? It's not enough to just go 3-0 in the group, which Team USA should.
05:25The point difference is going to be the determining factor of whether or not you play the eighth seed
05:29or the seventh seed, or however it shakes out in the quarterfinals. And with Canada off to a good
05:34start, France off to a good start, you got to not only win games, you got to win them impressively.
05:39You got to run the score up. So I expect Team USA to get close to that 29-point mark. Honestly,
05:43I would not touch that, but I would touch the total under, because I don't think that South
05:47Sudan is going to hit enough threes. They hit a ton of threes in that pre-seed, in that pre-tournament
05:52game. Mario Shayok could not miss. So I expect that to come back down to Earth, and I expect
05:57Team USA to lock in defensively. So that under is what I'm looking at. The spread, I'm a little
06:03iffy on it, but if you put me back against the wall, I'm going to say that they're going to cover
06:07that, but I'm not as certain as I am with the under. There's a reason why that three-point line is in
06:13there. It's the ultimate equalizer. If you can get hot, sometimes there's nothing the other team can
06:17certainly do about it. Now, if we are looking at this game overall, we did have a little bit of
06:21controversy here in the past game. Jason Tatum did not play, whether it was communication issues,
06:26whether he wasn't in the game plan, we don't know, but he is going to play today, as they've said.
06:31What's the outlook for Jason Tatum heading into this basketball game? And certainly, how many
06:35minutes is he going to get here? Listen, this is more about Steve Kerr, to me, than it is Jason
06:40Tatum. You know, if Steve Kerr, you make a decision as a head coach, stand in that decision. Yes, you
06:45have 12 of the greatest players in the NBA on one team. Not everyone could get into game, right?
06:50It's a 40-minute game. Kevin Durant rolling. He should, I think Steve Kerr should have came out
06:55after the game and said, hey, Kevin Durant didn't miss. What do you guys want me to do? Pull a guy
06:58that is on fire? It doesn't make sense, right? Like, so, so Jason Tatum should have sat on the
07:02bench, clapped his hands, waved his towel, and got the A-plus for the group effort, right? That
07:08result. So, I think Steve Kerr right here is playing with fire, because now you're, you're
07:12to manage egos more so than manage the game itself. And that's where you get into trouble.
07:17It's not going to show up now, right now, right now, guys, right? Like South Sudan is not going
07:20to beat Team USA. Puerto Rico is not going to beat Team USA. But once you get to the knockout stage,
07:25all those teams that you can walk through in the group stage, they're gone. And that's where you
07:29have to really hone in X's and O's, Y's, and work someone's ego, not getting into a game. Yes, I know
07:35he's an all-star, all-NBA player. That has to go to the side, and you have to get out there and win
07:40the basketball game. So, I am actually disappointed in Steve Kerr for, for making the declarative
07:45statement ahead of time saying, hey, Jason Tatum is going to play. Let the game dictate that. You
07:50don't go out and say that, because now that ruins the rotation. And that's very important when you
07:54have a small amount of time to build that chemistry.
07:58Carlin, very well stated, I believe, as well. Because Steve Kerr, after the opener against
08:03Serbia, the Americans dominant, they won by 26 against Nikola Jokic, and the Serbians covering
08:09as a 13 and a half point favorite. Steve Kerr came out and said, man, I'm such an idiot for not
08:14playing Jason Tatum. Steve, just stand by your decision. Jason Tatum today has his own player
08:19prompt, featured category, 10 plus points at plus 120. Carlin, only a minute left in this segment.
08:27For the other superstars on display today, between the United States and South Sudan,
08:32who do you expect to step up as we take a look at the player prompts?
08:35Yeah, take the underhanded Jason Tatum player prompt. He's not getting in there and doing much.
08:39Carlin Jones. Carlin Jones, if there's a player prompt out there, I would look at him. Because
08:43this is a guy who's obviously, he's an American-American born, he's a naturalized South
08:47Sudanese player. There's a guy who's playing in Serbia this year coming up. He's going to want to
08:51make some noise and potentially be coming off a bench at some point for an NBA team. This is an
08:55opportunity for him, more so than just an opportunity to win a game against Team USA.
09:00So whether they lose, which they probably will lose, if he has a big game, maybe that opens up
09:04GM's eyes. And you know, the cap restrictions in the NBA now, maybe that opens up the door to get
09:08a cheaper option like a Carlin Jones. Carlin Gay from Sporting News joining us here on this
09:14Wednesday. A Wonder Olympic basketball breakdown ahead of Team USA in South Sudan. Carlin,
09:20thank you very much. More on the early lineup next.