‘Escalation seems inevitable’ following assassination of Haniyeh- Analyst
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00:00Iran's Revolutionary Guard has also released a statement saying early this morning, that's
00:04Wednesday morning, Ismail Haniyeh's residence in Tehran was struck, resulting in the martyrdom
00:09of him and one of his bodyguards.
00:11It goes on to say the cause is under investigation and will be announced soon.
00:17Let's bring in Abbas Aslani, he's a senior research fellow at the Centre for Middle East
00:20Strategic Studies.
00:21He joins us via Skype from the Iranian capital.
00:24Abbas, you're our first guest from Iran, so it's really good to get you now.
00:28I mean, how significant from where you're sitting is this assassination of Ismail Haniyeh?
00:34And how is this being viewed in Iran, where you are, given the political changes and new
00:39president?
00:40Well, you know, the significance relates to the official who has been assassinated, the
00:51quality of the assassination and, I mean, the place he was assassinated in the capital
00:57city.
00:58And the context also is important, because he was assassinated on the—I mean, just
01:04after the inauguration ceremony of Iranian president and meeting senior Iranian officials.
01:14You know, this—at the moment that we speak, an escalation seems inevitable.
01:23On the same that new Iranian president was speaking of dialogue and engagement with the
01:28West, I think this is happening.
01:31And this can somehow, as some were predicting, could complicate the engagement process between
01:37Iran and the West.
01:38And Netanyahu doesn't want this to happen.
01:42Also, you know, we might be saying goodbye for now to the ceasefire, because, you know,
01:49this can escalate into a regional war.
01:52And so the Israeli prime minister is trying to do everything in order to prolong his political
02:02life.
02:03He wants to somehow continue the war.
02:07And I think these are not just only meant to impact the processes in Tehran or in the
02:13region, but also in Washington as well.
02:15He wants to somehow impact the political campaign in the United States, maybe somehow undermining
02:23the Democrats and giving more chance to Donald Trump.
02:28And how serious, Abbas, now is that threat of escalation, given that, as you say, you
02:34know, it happened on Iranian soil?
02:35We know Iran isn't afraid to hit back at Israel.
02:38So how is Iran likely to respond then, militarily?
02:42Well, it's a bit early to talk about the quality and the type of the response.
02:49But I think a retaliation will be inevitable.
02:54And Iran has no choice but to respond to this action.
02:59I think they will study and investigate that in what methods and how they can respond to
03:07this.
03:08As, you know, previously when Iran's embassy was targeted in Damascus, Iran responded directly
03:14to Israel.
03:17But it does not necessarily need to be the same way.
03:21But I think Iran will need to respond, because this is happening in the capital city.
03:27And I think we will need some time to study that, what options are available and how Iran
03:34can respond in order to, you know, to revive the deterrence.
03:40But for sure, Tehran has been assisting that it does not want a regional war.
03:45But it seems that the Israel wants to push different parties into this war because they
03:52want to lengthen this process.
03:54And the point is that at a time that the U.S. government is on its, you know, final
04:02months in the office, you know, its restraining impact and influence on Israel is also decreasing.
04:10And this somehow increases the chance of an unpredictable scenario in the situation.
04:16However, an all-out war, you know, a war which could include all the region is not something
04:25that Iran wants.
04:26But this is a scenario that Israel is pushing different parties, including Iran, to decide.
04:32But I think we have to be watching that what options are available that Iran can respond
04:38through.
04:39A regional war, you know, is more likely than ever.
04:43We need to fasten our seatbelts.
04:46But we have to wait and see that, you know, how this type of, you know, response could
04:51be, because yesterday we had an attack on Beirut.
04:56Later at night or early morning hours, you know, this assassination happened.
05:01And I think this cycle of, you know, actions and reactions might continue in the days to
05:06come.
05:07And it's important that what role other players like in the United States will be playing
05:13in this regard in order to contain the situation.
05:17Abbas, let me get a let me ask you another question here.
05:20Do you think this will be seen as a failure by Iran's security services?
05:25I mean, they knew Haneo was a target.
05:28Israel made no secret that it wanted to take out Hamas's leadership.
05:32That actually happened.
05:33They killed him on Iranian soil.
05:36Did Iran's security services fail somewhere along the line here, given that he was assassinated?
05:43For sure, what happened in Tehran was a bad thing for the Iranian security apparatus.
05:49And the point that Tehran might be feeling that Israel wants to undermine its deterrence,
05:56and that's why Iran will somehow feel that it has to respond to this.
06:03I think at the time that Israel was somehow losing political and international support
06:10or, you know, was in a difficult situation in order to prolong the war, Israel wants
06:18to change the rules of the game, and it wants to somehow change the deterrence balance against
06:27Tehran.
06:28So from this perspective, this is not good news for the security apparatus in Tehran
06:36and its positions or strategies when it comes to the original, you know, developments.
06:43That's why I think a retaliation or a response might be inevitable from Iran inside.
06:49But I'm not quite sure about the quality yet.
06:51I think it is yet to be determined.
06:55But this was also, from a security perspective, very significant for Iran.
07:00Yeah.
07:01Possibly a failure.
07:02Let me get a final thought from you then, Abbas, before you go.
07:04I mean, how is Iran viewing any hope for a ceasefire in Gaza?
07:08Because it's Gaza that's triggering all the other regional conflicts within the region.
07:15You know, every time that there were efforts or negotiations for a ceasefire in the region,
07:20you know, on the final hours or days of those negotiations, there was a pretext from the
07:27Israeli side that they wouldn't accept, I mean, the ceasefire.
07:31It was, you know, clear enough that Netanyahu didn't want a ceasefire.
07:36And by these actions and efforts, in order to escalate into a regional war, or at least,
07:43you know, to a broader conflict in the region, and, you know, which could have tensions that
07:51could make this war longer, it seems that Israelis do not want, you know, this ceasefire.
07:59And from Iranian perspective, Netanyahu and Israel has been a major obstacle for achieving
08:06the ceasefire.
08:07And, you know, by what happened yesterday and last night in Tehran, it seems, you know,
08:15more clear that Israel does not want a ceasefire.
08:20And we have to be seeing maybe this conflict going on in the weeks or months to come.
08:27This is not something that Tehran wants, but this is the thing that practically Israel
08:34tries to, you know, make happen.
08:38All right, Abbas Aslani, they're live for us in the Iranian capital with the reaction
08:42and analysis there from Iran.
08:44Thank you very much indeed for your time.
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