Ismail Haniyeh Killed: What Does This Mean for Hamas? Expert Predictions on the War's Next Phase
In this exclusive interview, we delve into the aftermath of Ismail Haniyeh's assassination, one of the most significant events in the recent Middle Eastern conflict. Watch our detailed interview and get expert opinions on how this pivotal event might shape the future of the conflict.
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00:00Hello and welcome to this special broadcast with the news that the world has woken up to,
00:07at least in this part of the world, India, is that Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh has been killed.
00:14Now this, what does it mean? What does it mean not just for Gaza and Palestine,
00:20for the better ongoing war in Israel as well, but the global dynamics too, how they are going to get
00:28impacted. To discuss this further, allow me to welcome Mr. Atul Aneja, foreign and strategic
00:34affairs expert and also a veteran senior journalist. Always a pleasure to speak to you, Mr. Aneja.
00:40Welcome, Pankaj.
00:41Thank you. So looking at these scenarios evolving as of now with Ismail Haniyeh, a name that had
00:50become synonymous to, I would say, terror, quote unquote, on October 7th, when the fighters of
00:59Gaza, Hamas, launched a daring attack on Israel and since then things haven't been the same.
01:06In your opinion, what would be the first reaction and impression and how would the world see it?
01:14Well, it's a big strike, Pankaj, and I think Israel has crossed a red line today by killing
01:20Haniyeh, who in a way was the political face of Hamas, not necessarily the military one.
01:28Senwar is the one who's leading the military side, but he was a political face of Hamas and
01:36his killing assassination would mean that now the supporters of Hamas cannot be quiet. I mean,
01:48it's a straightaway something which has happened in Tehran and that is important because the
01:54Iranians straightaway come into the picture now. So it's not only an attack on the Hamas, it's
02:00frankly an indirect attack on Iran and that's where the escalation comes in because if it is
02:08the provocation to Iran, now what is Iran going to do and it has to do something. They've come
02:15into Iran's lair and killed Haniyeh in their protected zone. I mean, they were supposed to
02:21protect Israel. So at this time, the Iranians will be under tremendous pressure to retaliate.
02:29The question is, how do they retaliate? When do they retaliate? But I think the escalation has
02:34come now because the Iranians will do something, whether it can come through northern Israel area,
02:41that is Lebanese border, which is Hezbollah opening up over there. And yesterday itself,
02:48it's still not confirmed, but an attack on a house in southern suburbs of Beirut by Israel,
02:56which again killed a senior commander, though the Hezbollah says that he escaped. But
03:00nevertheless, that side of the border is already red hot. So what happens there? Will the Iranians
03:08come through Hezbollah? Or what happens inside Gaza, Pankaj? Because he was a Gazan, essentially,
03:19that is, he studied there, he grew up there, he has his notes of influence inside Gaza.
03:26And if they're studying inside Gaza, can we, I don't think it'll be unexpected,
03:31the Israeli bombing start inside Rafah, close to the Rafah border, or throughout Gaza. And that
03:37could mean many more civilian casualties, etc. So there are ways, but I think essentially,
03:44if you see the big picture, it's Israel says Iran at the next level, at a new level,
03:50and the escalation in the entire region, not just locally inside Gaza, or just Israel.
03:57Absolutely. You're right. Mr. Aneja, when we talk about this particular assault,
04:04Iran would see it as an assault on its own, you know, land, and whether Israel would be able to
04:14be ready to be prepared for a blowback from Iran remains to be seen. Hamas, meanwhile, has said that
04:22Israel won't achieve what it desires, even after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. So
04:29that also is a territory that is not relinquishing, that is not giving up. In your opinion,
04:35sir, when we look at this particular strike, till now we had seen the proxy war of Iran going on in
04:41Lebanon and its fighters engaging in war with Israel, saw attacks on Golan Heights, then
04:46retaliatory attacks on Lebanese territory. Do you fear or do you sense the role of United States too
04:56becoming stronger after this attack when Iran comes into picture more prominently?
05:03You see, I think the green light for something like this,
05:09not so much in specifics, seems to have come when Netanyahu visited Washington,
05:17and he addressed the Congress, he met Trump, he met Biden. So you see, he met Kamala Harris.
05:24So I think he came back, you know, emboldened with a line from the Americans that don't
05:32invade Lebanon after what happened at the football ground attack inside Golan Heights.
05:39But short of that, you can go ahead. I think that seems to have been the understanding and
05:45that's where the assassinations come in. And when you talk about Washington, yes,
05:51I think that element is there because without that, I doubt they would have done this.
05:57And now comes the Iranian factor, the escalation to come in. I think right now there's a lot of
06:03conversations at various levels going on between Mossad and CIA, between State Department and
06:08Foreign Ministry. And, you know, the intelligence community, the militaries as well, about
06:18repercussions that might follow Hania's killing. Iran has already done missile attack,
06:24attack as serial missiles, most of it did not work because of the Israeli defenses. But there
06:30were certain missiles which did go through and hit an airbase in the Negev Desert. And those are
06:37hypersonic missiles. So that was a warning which came that no air defense or missile defense is
06:43going to stop such. And the Iranians have actually warned that, you know, we deliberately
06:49targeted to a non populated area, but we can do that to populated areas as well. So it's not that
06:56Iran is toothless right now. Of course, attacking a country as small as Israel
07:03and populated area would immediately cause, I mean, huge escalation again, but then I think
07:11these are tempting the Iranians to do that. So the Americans would be very, very involved
07:17in now, so called damage control following what has happened by killing of Hania.
07:25And this is going to stay for some more time. One more point, we saw some process of de-escalation,
07:31at least hopes to that going on. The talks were going on, I think in Egypt for the hostage deal
07:38to take place. I think that's off the radar now. The Chinese had got both the Palestinian factions,
07:44that is the Fatah and the Hamas in Beijing to get them together for some with the possibility
07:52of a reconciliation dialogue or negotiations. So I think with the attacks, I think Israel
07:57and Netanyahu has made up, I mean, has sent that message that we will not go for talks.
08:03We are not going for talks. And we are going for this ultimate option of erasing Hamas
08:13from Gaza. We are striking their leadership. So it's that particular process seems to have
08:20also been killed with the killing of Hania. Thank you for your questions.
08:27Right. Nice, sir. Indeed, indeed. Well, well received. One final question, sir. I mean,
08:33if I have to knock at the cost of either militarizing the whole situation or sensitizing
08:39or trying to boost it here, but I remember the times of 1913, 1914, when the world was at the
08:48brink of world war, but there was one trigger, the killing of our Duke Ferdinand. That parallel
08:55is being drawn by several international media as we speak, that this could be one of, because as
09:01you rightly mentioned, the kind of figure Ismail Hania was, at least revered in Gaza, now involving
09:08Iran. In this sort of possibility, sir, because with a war going on between Russia and Ukraine
09:14as well, and now in the Middle East, this sort of dynamics, do you think Iran would be weighing
09:21on these options also before thinking of anything before striking back? No, because Iran is not
09:28strong enough right now. I mean, if it is a one between Israel and Iran, the symmetry is still
09:34there between Israel and Iran speaking. So this can come in only if Iran has a green light from
09:42the Russians, let's say, or from the Chinese, that they were going to back them up. And then
09:47they will be emboldened to do something and escalate it big time. Right now, that's not
09:51coming. You see, the Russians are involved in Ukraine. Unless that war winds up, the Russians
09:55won't have enough to divert it here. So that, I do not see the, and the Israelis would have
10:01calculated that before going in for this. So that's, you know, of our Duke Ferdinand and that
10:09being the trigger, I don't think is there because the alliances are not there. I mean,
10:14the Israelis may have, and then again, America's going inside into their election mode. And there
10:20are strong Palestinian factions and supporters as well. And beyond a point, they cannot alienate
10:26them, especially the Democrats can't alienate them, and Trump may take a certain position.
10:30So there will also be exercise some constraint on Israel not to go abroad. So I don't think it's
10:37going to trigger into that. But now comes the proxies will come into picture, the Hezbollah
10:42will come into the picture. Because this is also assassinations, terror, it's not full scale wars,
10:47which are going on. And then you're going to see the Houthis, I think the Swiss cannot be able to
10:53watch that space. What happened to international shipping? How are they going to respond to that?
11:00So I think this is also, and then we're going to have the stock markets reacting to this
11:07development. I don't know what the price of oil would be after what is happening. You know,
11:12it's the energy security into picture over there. So it's still going to be wars by war,
11:18by escalated war through proxies. Mr. Raneja, thank you so much for bringing us up to speed
11:23and putting things into perspective as far as the assassination, the killing of Ismail
11:28Fania is concerned, the Hamas chief. And we really appreciate your input. We hope to have
11:35you more on One India also. Thank you so much. You're welcome.