MLB Player Props for today's Slate | Best Bets | Paul Skenes
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00:05The jack of all trades here with us on a Monday for his
00:08prop perspective. That is Tom Vecchio. Some Olympic
00:11basketball conversation, some major league baseball
00:14games and prop plays for this Monday
00:17and a deadline day around MLB
00:20tomorrow. Tom Vecchio, we as always, we appreciate the time.
00:23Thank you for being here to start off this new week.
00:26Thanks for having me. Yeah, busy time, not only for
00:29baseball season is getting to the stretch run and before you know
00:32football season will be here. I'm ready to go.
00:35So Vecchio, as we look at the odds for the Olympic
00:38opener for Team USA yesterday, 110
00:4180 for the win. The United States covering is a
00:4413 and a half point favorite. The total 185
00:47in a hook skies way over Vecchio
00:50throughout this Olympic tournament with men's basketball
00:53in Team USA. What is your handicapping approach
00:56going to be? You know, it's been difficult just
00:59because, you know, we didn't know what the rotation was going to be as
01:02you guys discussed a couple segments ago with Tatum not playing.
01:05It's also a different rules in terms of the time
01:08limit, the overall time of the game. So we have to like look at that in terms
01:11of players. Their production rate is not going to be the same. Their
01:14usage rate is not going to be the same because these are all players. Generally speaking
01:17that have 25 30% usage rate. So they're not going to be posting
01:20these PRAs that were at 50 or 60. They're going to be somewhere in the
01:23So we have to use like the time, the overall time of the game
01:26and just how different international basketball is as a
01:29starting point. And then it's kind of just like a I
01:32want to say a little bit of coach speak. We have to take what we heard and you know,
01:35Steve Kerr said that he didn't play Tatum, but Tatum's going to play moving forward. So we can
01:38use a little bit of that going into the next game.
01:41Take a look at the game itself. 110 to
01:4484, an easy victory for Team USA over Serbia.
01:47Let me just ask you this question. Forget about the players in the game
01:50Team USA as a whole. Did that change your opinion at all?
01:53As if now when the lights are brightest Team USA should really
01:56shine or we like, you know what? I knew we had a good team expected
01:59an easy victory out of Serbia and let's see what's ahead.
02:02I think the trust is still there.
02:05I think we're looking ahead like the first few games the exhibition games
02:08Team USA is generally started off place pretty slow. So they had like
02:11those few scares, I know one point game versus
02:14South Sudan like in the exhibition like they had those scares. They got those out of
02:17the way. Now it's time for like it's business time is here.
02:20So enough of that nonsense get down to business.
02:23Trust the key players get a solid rotation going and
02:26we can move forward pick up some easy wins and Team USA comes away with
02:29the gold. Minus 550. Now that
02:32number on the Americans to win their fifth consecutive
02:35gold medal. Canada a victory over
02:38Yonases, Ndukumpo and Greece on Saturday.
02:41Second best price at plus 850.
02:44Now we transition to the baseball diamond two
02:47teams that are frankly listed as contenders
02:50in the National League, but are they really it's
02:53the Braves and the Brewers today in Milwaukee the brew crew
02:56a six-game lead in on top of the National
02:59League Central Atlanta the top spot in the
03:02NL wildcard race a virtual pick them in
03:05Milwaukee. The Brewers a slight home favorite at minus
03:08116 total is eight and a half echo. How do you
03:11break down this matchup in Milwaukee? I'm
03:14starting off straight with under eight and a half, you know, both
03:17pitchers Ray and Holmes are pretty average overall, but we've talked
03:20about it before the offense is really
03:23from the brave side just completely lacking the injuries are piling up Christian
03:26Yelich is now out for the Brewers. I just don't trust these
03:29offenses enough to put up enough runs like when we're looking at the
03:32Braves lineup used to be an awesome lineup top to bottom now with the injuries
03:35that they've dealt with, you know, Riley Nelson can't carry that offense
03:38on a nightly basis and you're a Dominus and Contreras are great. I know it's
03:41time. But after that, I'm not worried about too many of these hitters. So
03:44I say we side with the under to start the week. It may not be the most exciting
03:47thing, but it's probably the route to go today. We take
03:50a look at the NL odds right now to win the pen at the Dodgers at a
03:53plus 165 price. The Phillies at a 2 to 1 price. Then we have the Braves
03:56and the Brewers plus 550 on the Braves and a
03:5912 to 1 price on the Brewers. If I were to give you a free bet
04:02today Tom down the stretch who would it be on the Atlanta
04:05Braves or the Milwaukee Brewers at those two price points
04:08at this point, it might have to be the Brewers just
04:11because I think they'll be healthier when it's all said and done. I don't want the
04:14pitching that they have up front. If Max Fried comes back healthy and it's
04:17freed and sale. That's a different story. I think that's
04:20probably the safest route to go. But you know, we're not there yet.
04:23Like we don't know if free comes back how healthy he'll be Etc.
04:26Etc. The lineups would be say that they're all equal the Padres. I think
04:29they're a fine number. The long shot would be the Giants. I know it seems
04:32a bit out of left field, but I've always talked about pitching
04:35if Snell and Webb can be there. I think they're
04:38as good of a one-two combo as we can get outside
04:41of getting to Wheeler and Nola. So that would be the super
04:44super long shot to go for the NL.
04:47There are only two games below 500 that being San
04:50Francisco. They're only three and a half games out of a wild
04:53card spot. It's not the craziest thing. They could turn
04:56it on over the final two months of this regular
04:59season a historic day Vecchio in Major League
05:02Baseball anytime Paul Skeens gets a start.
05:05It is Skeens day number 13 in the
05:08history of MLB tonight in Houston.
05:11We have looked at the odds. The Buccos are a road
05:14favorite now to Skeens himself. What
05:17continues to baffle me a little bit Vecchio is
05:20the Cape prop for Paul Skeens seven and a
05:23half is the number the over has plus
05:26Plus money. He is recorded at least eight
05:29strikeouts in eight of his prior
05:32nine starts. So how do you approach Paul Skeens
05:35in that strikeout prop? It's been
05:38tough with him because the numbers are super high. Sometimes
05:41they're juiced unlike today. We actually plus money on the over
05:44the Astros are actually really disciplined at the plate versus righties.
05:47So that is taking to account. So my take for this is I've
05:50said this before for many years with you guys about NBA players
05:53where it's Luca where there's a tentacle, but whatever it is, I don't take unders on
05:56some of those players. Sometimes you either take the over or you stay away. And I
05:59think that is where Skeens is really approaching where it's like he can put
06:02up 10 strikeouts in six innings. I'm not going to take the under
06:05on Paul Skeens, but I don't necessarily love the matchup in
06:08order to lay money on the over. So sometimes it's just a stay away.
06:11I think that's what we have today. Let's get to
06:14Philadelphia time. You take a look at the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies
06:17about to get underway of a three game set heel versus Wheeler on the mound
06:20Fandles Sportsbook overnight open this price point at a minus
06:23154 price. It currently sits at the Phillies at a minus
06:26142 price and a total of nine. What are your expectations
06:29for this series and more importantly who wins tonight?
06:32I think the Phillies win tonight. I think that's going to be super straightforward.
06:35Yankees coming off like an emotional series win
06:38against the Red Sox struggling going into that series. They blow
06:41a game to come away with these two wins. I think that's what we're going to see.
06:44I think we're going to see a dominant Phillies win. They're also coming off a bit of a
06:47I don't want to say a bad loss, but it's a game that they had in control yesterday.
06:50I think we're going to see an awesome game from Zach Wheeler over six and a half
06:53strikeouts for him today sitting at minus 138. He comes with a 27%
06:56strikeout rate this season. He's been awesome. He's been over this mark in three straight
06:59games since the start of July. I think this is just a take care of
07:02business game for the Phillies. They're at home. I would lay it on the money
07:05line with them. I think that's certainly fine. I think this is a start to finish
07:08Phillies game Yankees late game last night after
07:11Sunday night baseball again against the Red Sox bad Sears
07:14against the Mets a little bit of regression is coming from their offense
07:17today and over the next few days 10 and
07:20for the record for Zach Wheeler a 250 era
07:23now a co-favorite to win the National League Cy Young
07:26Award alongside Chris sale plus 150
07:29those two have got a jockeyed position for that true
07:32frontrunner in the NL Cy Young race with
07:35young Paul Skeens at plus 370 not all
07:38that far behind back there as you look at the World
07:41Series odds. The order really remains the Astros have seen
07:44their price shortened over the last two and a half weeks or
07:47so. I'm not going to ask you your best bet. I'm going to phrase it
07:50like this ahead of the MLB trade deadline tomorrow
07:53whose World Series number do you think drastically
07:56shortened in the next month of regular season action?
07:59If the Orioles can make a big splash,
08:02I think they'll be up there with one of the favorites. They we know they would
08:05tremendous amount of prospects that they have. Are they
08:08willing to deal them? That is the question. Will they be able to move
08:11from 6 to 4, you know, plus 600 plus 400
08:14will that number change if they are willing to move some of these prospects
08:17and get another big name picture. That's where I want to go. I
08:20also like taking the Orioles versus the
08:23Phillies direct matchup at 11 to 1 for the World Series. It's
08:26not picking a winner. It's just picking the finalists. So Orioles
08:29versus Phillies low East Coast battle in the World Series
08:32this year. Let's show those top props
08:35on this Monday drew holiday under three
08:38and a half boards Beck. Yo for the second game on Wednesday
08:41afternoon against South Sudan. Yeah, I think he's
08:44going to hit under on that. I think his defensive prowess
08:47is going to be more needed in the following game versus Puerto Rico
08:50and they'll get Halliburton who also been playing minutes in that last game
08:53alongside Tatum. So we'll see a rotation change Halliburton
08:56out there more of a guard position along with along with Tatum.
08:59I just like O'Neill Cruz didn't touch on that for the Pirates game, but not
09:02worried about Jake boss who's on the mound for the Astros will just take
09:05Cruz to plus four bases at plus 100 love
09:08the look. Thank you. Oh the prop perspective on this Monday
09:11by the way, the United States three one and a half
09:14point favorite against South Sudan on Wednesday afternoon
09:17a team that only lost the Americans by one
09:20in the exhibition Becky. Oh, thank you for baseball
09:23breakdowns next.