Hamas and Fatah sign declaration in Beijing
In China, Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah signed a declaration on forming a unity government and ending a yearslong rift. The groups signed the so-called Beijing Declaration on "ending division and strengthening Palestinian unity." Hamas is considered a terrorist group by the US, EU and other states, but not so by China. Middle East expert Ahmed Aboudouh analyzes the agreement.
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00:00For more on this story, let's cross over now to Ahmed Abudo in London.
00:03He is an associate fellow with the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa program.
00:08Very warm welcome to DW News.
00:10We have a lot to unpack here.
00:12I'm curious, first of all, previous declarations of this kind have fallen apart.
00:18So how likely do you think this one is to hold?
00:23My short answer is I don't expect major developments out of this declaration and I think it will
00:32not produce real unity or reconciliation because the disagreements between Fatah and Hamas
00:37especially are structural and are not related to light issues and these issues are related
00:46to inclusion of Hamas and Fatah into the PLO organization, elections and deep changes in
00:56ideological doctrines that govern both Fatah and Hamas and also the belief in the peaceful
01:05negotiations with Israel to reach peace under the umbrella of the Oslo Accord.
01:10So these issues were not discussed and I don't think they will go away anytime soon.
01:17So as far as we know, none of these fundamental structural issues were addressed in the deal.
01:22Were there any areas where you saw breakthroughs that you would say are notable?
01:28Some of them were encouraging.
01:30The elections, for example, it was on the declaration.
01:35Also the formation of a unity government, which is a Hamas demand for so long and Fatah
01:41didn't want this to happen, it is included in the declaration.
01:45But the problem is the declaration is predicated on a decision by President Mahmoud Abbas who
01:51opposes all this.
01:52Secondly, it doesn't include any concrete timeframe or implementation mechanism for
01:59these fruitful outcomes to become reality.
02:03So just like other declarations and agreements in Cairo, Sana'a, Mecca, Algeria and Doha
02:09and even in Moscow in February, I don't think they will lead to any concrete developments
02:14on the ground.
02:15It is interesting though, the devil, of course, in the detail.
02:19But how likely would you say it is that at some point in the future we do see what they've
02:24basically agreed to, which is the formation of a unity government for the administration
02:29of post-war Gaza?
02:33The two sides came very close to agreeing to the formation of a unity government in
02:39February.
02:40But in March, President Mahmoud Abbas ignored that and he formed the Prime Minister's Mohammad
02:47Mustafa's government, which is in place now.
02:49We will have to wait and see if a declaration comes from the presidency saying we have to
02:56dissolve this government for the sake of the new proposed unity government.
03:01This will be a major change.
03:03Secondly, I think the main objective of Fatah consists of three elements.
03:11The first is it wants to increase its popularity in the street and within factions within Fatah
03:19who don't follow Mahmoud Abbas, who are angry with the language coming from the presidency
03:24towards Hamas.
03:25Second, it wants to block Hamas inclusion into the PLO.
03:29And third, and most importantly, I think, it has to deal or prepare for the uncertainty
03:36coming from the United States.
03:37Now that President Biden decided to pull out of the elections, I think Mahmoud Abbas is
03:43predicting uncertainty if Trump becomes president.
03:46And we saw this behaviour from Mahmoud Abbas in 2020 after President Trump proposed their
03:53deal of the century negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis before.
03:58So if we do get a Trump administration, tell us a little bit more about that, this uncertainty
04:03that Abbas is feeling, you say.
04:05What will that translate to in political terms?
04:10When Trump was elected, he recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
04:16He kicked out the PLO office, which was in Washington, and he cut funding to the Palestinian
04:23authority.
04:24And he exerted great pressure on President Mahmoud Abbas to sit at the table with Prime
04:30Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss this deal.
04:34The Palestinians didn't reach consensus for this to happen back then.
04:39So Mahmoud Abbas restored to surrounding himself with all the factions he has differences with,
04:45including al-Jihad and Hamas back then, to show unity in the face of this pressure.
04:52I think Mahmoud Abbas' calculations now is that this might be repeated if Trump would
04:57win the elections in November.
04:59And he's trying now to show some unity with the help from Beijing, that he can defy or
05:05stand up to any pressure that would come from Washington, again, trying to force Mahmoud
05:11Abbas or the Palestinian factions to sign a deal that they don't want to sign.
05:15I do want to also ask you about the role of China in these negotiations.
05:19Would you say this is a win for Beijing, having sponsored this deal?
05:24It has been trying to position itself as a mediator on world issues.
05:29I think it is a diplomatic win.
05:31We are now living the same days that followed the success of Chinese mediation between Iran
05:36and Saudi Arabia in March 2023.
05:39China's objectives out of this, China wants to position itself as a responsible rising
05:45major power that is interested in pushing forward peace through dialogue and consultation
05:51and through development.
05:53These talks give China this banner, which can promote Chinese vision for international
06:00governance, which is alternative to the rules-based international order in the future.
06:05Second, China knows that it doesn't have an entry into any future negotiations between
06:11the Palestinians and Israel, because Israel would not want to replace the United States
06:17as the only mediator.
06:19So the only way to have a role in this biggest headline in the world and biggest conflict
06:24is to raise and increase its influence over the future Palestinian state by uniting the
06:31Palestinian factions and Palestinian institutions and guarantee a seat at the table in any peace
06:39arrangement in the future.
06:41And the most preferred scenario for China, as President Xi Jinping said many times, including
06:48in a BRICS summit, that the peace process should be taken over by a UN-led peace international
06:57conference that is multilateral and where China plays a very important role on par with
07:03the United States.
07:05I'm curious where you see things going from here now that this deal has been struck in
07:09Beijing.
07:10Will we see further talks between the two sides to try to flesh out additional details?
07:16Or is this really just a much more broader show of unity?
07:22I think we will see some small talks at the level of general secretaries on all the factions
07:27and parties.
07:29And this will be technical in nature.
07:31They will discuss a lot of details and issues, including the future governance of Gaza and
07:37the reconstruction after the war.
07:40But all will be predicated on the end of the war, first and foremost.
07:46This will rely on the United States' ability to get a deal over the line before the elections
07:52in November.
07:54And if Israel would accept a role, future role, for Hamas in the governance of Gaza,
08:00which President Benjamin Netanyahu rolled out already.
08:03Secondly, I think the Chinese will be interested in supervising further talks, just as they
08:09did with the Saudis and the Iranians.
08:12They will host more meetings between the Palestinian factions in Beijing going forward to make
08:18sure that they can build on this declaration.
08:21Well, thank you so much for joining us.
08:22That is Ahmed Aboudou with Chatham House.
08:24We appreciate your insights.
08:26You're welcome.
08:28Thanks so much for watching.