On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new HarrisX/Forbes poll showing former President Trump still leading President Biden going into the RNC.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Tan, in light of the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump,
00:04how is this impacting the horse race here?
00:08Great question. The horse race hasn't changed at all, or at least it hasn't changed yet,
00:14and it's to be seen what effect there is on the horse race. Last time we released
00:19polling together, Trump was ahead by four points when we looked at the two-way race between him
00:27and Biden, and then when you factor in undecideds, he was ahead by two points. Today, he's ahead by
00:33three points, and when you factor in undecideds, he's again ahead by two points, 51% to 49%.
00:43And the reason for that is because the electorate has dug its heels. Conventionally, the electorate
00:51breaks up in 40% who support one candidate, 40% who support the other candidate, and roughly 20%
00:58in the middle, they like both candidates, but they haven't made up their mind. Today, you have
01:06that 20% in the middle that doesn't like either of the candidates. They still haven't made up their
01:11mind, and events like this, which tend to play on sympathy, are less likely to move the horse race
01:19than strong positions on issues or a strong issue platform that really speaks to those
01:25undecided in the middle who basically say that they don't want either Biden or Trump to be on
01:31the ballot in November. And so no change so far, but we'll be monitoring very closely together with
01:37Forbes. And let's talk about approval ratings specifically. President Biden right now sits at
01:43a 40%. And that's a similar number that you and I have been talking about now for months. But right
01:50now we are less than four months away from an election. As an incumbent, what's that mean for
01:55him? Well, I mean, it's certainly low, right? And as an incumbent, President Biden faces challenging
02:07prospects for reelection with an approval rating that's so underwater. The picture is also not much
02:16better when you look at Kamala Harris, whose approval rating is even lower at 39% than who
02:22does even worse in the horse race in our poll compared to Trump. So the Democrats have to do
02:30something. The Biden campaign has to do something going forward because the last month started off
02:36with two bad weeks for President Biden coming out of the debate. And now we're entering a cycle,
02:42which is a positive cycle for President Trump. After he survived the assassination attempt,
02:48two-thirds of voters say that he showed great courage and bravery and defiance standing up
02:54right away after the assassination attempt. So as the Republican convention comes to an end,
03:04A, we'll be looking whether or not there is a bump and the horse race changes. But B, we also
03:10have to look at the Democrats and see what are they going to do to change the dynamic of the race
03:16right now, which isn't looking good for them. And now let's move on down ballot here. How are both
03:22Republicans and Democrats feeling about Congress? Well, Republicans have had an edge in our polling
03:30all about one to two percentage points when it comes to the congressional race.
03:36When you look at national polling, that's enough to make a big difference down ballot. Usually
03:44something like 86% of all Congress people who are running for re-election get re-elected.
03:51That's a historical statistic. And then it's really about 14% in some cases less
03:58that are really susceptible to competitive races. So that one to two percent that we've
04:05been seeing regularly in congressional ballot could make a big difference. And it very much
04:12tracks what we're seeing on a national level as well, with President Trump being at least
04:19two points ahead of President Biden, no matter how you splice and dice where the horse race stands.