BREAKING: HarrisX/Forbes Poll Reveals How Voters Feel About Trump Choosing JD Vance As Running Mate
On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed new polling showing voters' feelings towards Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), former President Trump's choice of his 2024 running mate,
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is Harris X CEO
00:08and founder Driton Esho. Driton, thanks so much for joining me. Thanks for having me again.
00:13The RNC kicked off this week and arguably the biggest news to come out of the convention
00:19is the fact that Donald Trump selected his running mate and that person is Senator J.D. Vance of
00:25Ohio. So first of all, Harris X and Forbes conducted a poll about the new nominee. What
00:31do voters think about J.D. Vance? Well, first, what you have to keep in mind about J.D. Vance
00:38is that even though he's been around for a few years as a senator and before that as
00:45a political figure after writing his very famous book, The Hillbilly Eulogy, he's still relatively
00:53unknown. And what I mean by that is that 21 percent of voters have not heard of him yet
00:59and the full 23 percent don't have an opinion. So roughly half of the whole electorate is waiting
01:06to be introduced properly to J.D. Vance. And that's the opportunity that he will have tonight
01:12once he has his speech in front of the Republican National Convention. But I would say that of those
01:20who do know him, roughly equal numbers view him favorably to unfavorably, 27 percent favorably,
01:2729 percent unfavorably. When you think of the top contenders for VP up until this week when it was
01:34announced, it was Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, amongst others. And these are lawmakers who have more of
01:42a national presence. Both of them have ran for president at some point in their career.
01:47The fact that J.D. Vance isn't as much of a household name, does that really hurt him in this?
01:53Well, he's got room to grow and he'll be built up in many different ways. What we know today
02:01is that when we ask, do you support the selection of J.D. Vance or oppose it, 40 percent support it,
02:1030 percent oppose it, and 30 percent are unsure of what to make of it just yet. But amongst
02:18Republicans, 70 percent support it. And when you ask Republicans, are you more or less likely to
02:24vote for Trump because of the selection of J.D. Vance as vice president, 41 percent say that they
02:31are more likely to vote for him, 4 percent say that they're less likely to vote for him, and about
02:3655 percent say that it will not impact their vote. And therein you get everything you need
02:42to know about vice presidential selections. The old quip is that a vice president doesn't help
02:50you, he can only hurt you. And I think that in this election with J.D. Vance, Trump is tipping
02:56the hat to his base and selecting someone that plays very well and very strong with the Republican
03:03base, despite his low name. So typically you're saying historically, VP selection can only hurt
03:11you. Do you think that that matters here right now? Do you think that could be true?
03:19So it's yet to be seen. Right. And as you can see, the Democratic Party and the Biden campaign
03:26has already started attacking J.D. Vance from the first moment of his announcement in order to shape
03:35those perceptions. And as they say in politics, you want to shape your opponent
03:40in the minds of the voter and in the minds of the public before they have the chance to do so
03:46themselves. Right now, as it stands for the whole electorate, you know, 21 percent say that they're
03:52more likely to vote for Trump because he selected Vance. 18 percent say that they're less likely to
03:58vote for Trump because of that. So it's by and large a wash within the margin of error. And 61
04:06percent, close to two thirds, say that it will not impact their vote, meaning that they're either
04:13voting because of Trump or Biden or some other driver, not the vice presidential nominee.
04:20As you said earlier, J.D. Vance just got into politics a few years ago. He was elected into
04:25Senate to serve for Ohio in 2022. He's also the author of Hillbilly Elegy, which came out in 2016.
04:33Why do voters think he was selected? That's a great question. If you ask Republicans,
04:39the number one issue or the number one reason that they believe J.D. Vance was selected by Trump
04:45is because he's a strong supporter of MAGA policies. And that is the strongest single
04:52reason that Republicans gave for J.D. Vance, followed closely by he will be loyal to Trump.
05:00So his loyalty is playing fairly strongly with the Republican base, as well as the fact that they see
05:07him as someone who's fully aligned with the set of policies that they'd like Trump to drive.
05:13When you look at independents, the picture is very similar as well. 29% of independents say that
05:21they see him as being loyal to Trump. 27% say that he's a strong supporter of MAGA policies.
05:27The rest are all over the place. And so these are the two factors that are playing strongest
05:33among the base, amongst the voters in the middle, and then certainly amongst the general electorate.
05:39They are the top two reasons. A big question, something that has hung in the air in this
05:45election so far is age. And J.D. Vance is 39 years old. So that contrasts with both Trump and Biden.
05:54Also, unlike Biden, who has been pretty much a lifelong politician, J.D. Vance just was elected
06:00two years ago. So do voters think that he has the experience? Great question. Similar to Barack
06:07Obama, if you remember, Obama had only been in the Senate for a couple of years before he was
06:13nominated to run for president by the Democratic Party. It doesn't seem to hurt J.D. Vance. 44%
06:21seem as being qualified to run for vice president or to run on the ticket. 26% say he's not qualified.
06:29About 30% are unsure. But again, because of his lower name ID, he has the opportunity to build up
06:36those credentials, right, to get to a point where a majority of voters seem as being qualified. And
06:43again, 70% or close to 70% of Republicans view him as being qualified. In a similar fashion,
06:49we ask how qualified do you think J.D. Vance would be if he has to step into the role of president
06:56and take over for Donald Trump? And the numbers are very similar. 42% said that he would be
07:01qualified amongst the general electorate. 27% amongst the general electorate said that he's
07:07not qualified, and the rest are somewhere in between. Roughly, you know, 3 in 10 voters
07:14are unsure. But again, Republicans have a lot of confidence in him, and two-thirds of
07:20Republicans say that if he had to step into the role of president, he would be qualified to do
07:25that role. This primary season has really shown the GOP as divided into two parties, more of a
07:33Nikki Haley establishment Republican, and then more of a Trump MAGA Republican. You're saying
07:39that J.D. Vance fits nicely into that Trump MAGA Republican mold. So given his age and given his
07:47policies, do voters view him as the heir apparent to Donald Trump? I think that that's yet to be
07:55seen, but certainly the selection of J.D. Vance plays to Trump's base. And J.D. Vance does very
08:02well with rural voters and especially with suburban voters. And obviously his background,
08:10he comes from a downscale white demographic and a background that he's wrote in his book. His
08:19childhood was quite challenging. So it's a tip of the hat for that core electorate,
08:27you know, lower educated white voters, downscale white voters in suburban areas,
08:33and in rural areas that may compose the core of Trump's voter base. And so in that regard,
08:42he's the closest thing to that voter that exists outside of Trump in the Republican Party,
08:48and it's a tip of the hat to those voters. I will also add one other thing. 80% of Republicans view
08:54J.D. Vance as an exciting pick, in part because he is young and in part because of his background.
09:02Also, 91% of Republicans and 58% of independents actually view him as being honest. And the
09:09honesty card, it's an important card, especially for voters who like anti-establishment figures
09:18and essentially view Washington as being in a gridlock and not able to produce actual solutions
09:26for them that matter to them in their day-to-day life. And that was a very interesting finding
09:31that came out in our poll. 56% of independents viewing J.D. Vance as honest and 91% of Republicans
09:38saying the same. When we're talking about vice presidential picks, obviously I'm going to look
09:44at the counterpart here, and that is Kamala Harris, current vice president. She has had,
09:50in this election cycle, similar or lower approval ratings than Joe Biden. How does this dovetail,
09:57these numbers when we're talking about J.D. Vance, how does this dovetail with
10:01voter sentiment toward Vice President Kamala Harris? Well, as we have shown in our polling
10:07consistently, Harris polls lower than Biden, both in terms of job approval and in terms of
10:14the horse race, especially in the head-to-head against Trump. However, she has near universal
10:20name identification, just like Biden and Trump have, by virtue of having been vice president
10:26for almost four years. J.D. Vance doesn't have that name ID, and as he shapes himself and as the
10:33Republican Party shapes him to be the vice presidential candidate and a potential heir
10:39apparent to Trump, there is a lot of opportunity to shape him in all the right way. Right now,
10:45voters are waiting to see, are waiting to hear about his biography, are waiting to hear about
10:52his positions, are waiting to hear about, you know, how J.D. Vance contributes to the ticket,
11:00and that's why they're largely split on questions like, does he care about people like me or not,
11:06right? In our poll, that specific question was 49% one way, 51% the other way,
11:13effectively a split. Of course, Republicans, they do think that he cares about people like them,
11:18and Trump voters say the same. Over 8 in 10 of Trump voters and over 8 in 10 of Republicans
11:25feel that way, but there's still room to grow, especially with independents,
11:30and that's where I would look for the numbers to start moving and the direction in which they move.
11:37Clearly, this poll indicates that J.D. Vance has a lot of room to grow,
11:42but any numbers in here, anything else stick out to you?
11:47Well, you know, to your question, do voters seem as similar to Trump or not,
11:5278% of the electorate does view J.D. Vance as being similar to Trump or having the potential
11:59to be very similar to Trump, and that's also 74% of Republicans. So again, there is a template
12:06for J.D. Vance, which is to be that heir apparent to Trump, whether he follows that template or
12:14whether he plays more into the fact that he's also seen as being a moderate Republican,
12:21more than he's seen as being, you know, very ensconced or historically ensconced with the
12:29MAGA movement. I think that that's an interesting tension, and that will be something interesting
12:35to see. Right now, 54% of voters say that J.D. Vance holds mainstream views rather than more
12:43extreme, more far-right views, and 78% of Republicans say the same, including also 60%
12:51of independents. So there's this interesting tension in the numbers between voters seeing
12:58him as an heir apparent to Trump and the closest thing to the personification of the MAGA policies
13:05that Trump has within the Republican Party. At the same time, he's also seen as a mainstream
13:11politician, and it'll be interesting to see which way those numbers evolve.
13:17Driton Pergusual, I appreciate all of the numbers.
13:20Thanks for coming on and breaking them down for us.
13:23Thank you very much.