#fitch #breakingnews #pakistaneconomycrisis #inflation #pmlngovt #pmshehbazsharif #imrankhan #pti
Fitch report warns political turmoil could derail Pakistan’s economic recovery | Experts Analysis
Fitch report warns political turmoil could derail Pakistan’s economic recovery | Experts Analysis
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00The report of Fitch has come out.
00:02Think about it, an institution that keeps a close eye on financial matters
00:06and when it comes to governance matters,
00:09when the government has to go, when it has to stay,
00:11who has to stay in jail for how long.
00:13When we talk about this matter, it is a very surprising matter.
00:17Some of the details in this basically
00:19are shared in the form of slides in front of you.
00:21Fitch has talked about the current account loss of Rama Mali Saal
00:26that it can stay up to 1% of GDP.
00:28Along with this, the current account loss of Rama Mali Saal
00:30has been predicted to stay at 7.7% of GDP.
00:34Then, regarding the dollar, it has been said that
00:36the dollar can go up further,
00:38that is, it can reach the price of 310 rupees.
00:40Regarding the next general election,
00:42it has been said that it will be held in 2029,
00:44that is, it will be held for 5 years.
00:46But it has been said that in Pakistan,
00:48no Prime Minister has been able to complete his 5-year term.
00:52In Pakistan, the economic impact of political unrest
00:54and security threats has been seen.
00:57If political unrest increases,
00:59then there is a risk of derailing the country's economic recovery.
01:04In Mali Saal 2026,
01:06the GDP growth has been predicted to remain at 3.8%.
01:12And in Mali Saal 2027,
01:14this number will remain at 3.8%.
01:17Along with this, in Rama Mali Saal,
01:19the fixed income has been predicted to remain at 4,10,497 rupees.
01:25And in the next Mali Saal,
01:27the fixed income has been predicted to remain at 4,42,024 rupees.
01:31So, these were basically some numbers
01:33with which Fitch's report has been discussed.
01:36For now, let's take a look at Fitch's report.
01:40The guests who are joining us in the program,
01:43let us introduce them to you.
01:45Mr. Atar Kazmi is a senior commentator.
01:47He will be with us.
01:49Along with this, he is joining us.
01:51Mr. Aamir Zia is a senior analyst.
01:53Thank you, Mr. Aamir, for being with us.
01:55Mr. Hassan Ayyub is also joining us.
01:57He is a senior analyst.
01:58So, let's talk to him.
02:00The overall political situation that has developed
02:04and especially this surprising report that has come out.
02:07So, starting from you, Mr. Aamir Zia.
02:10Obviously, you also keep an eye on these matters.
02:15From Fitch's side, these predictions
02:17that the government will remain for so long
02:20and that the founder of PTI has made a promise
02:23that he will remain in jail for the rest of his life.
02:26From where do these news reach to institutions like Fitch?
02:31On what basis are these predictions made?
02:33Mr. Sajid, the thing is that we have also worked a little
02:37on these international wire services.
02:40These are such institutions that keep an eye on the economy.
02:44For example, the Economist Intelligence Unit,
02:46Finch, Moody's.
02:48Their information gathering is very strong.
02:51And they generally hire the best minds,
02:54both local and non-local, about a country.
02:57Obviously, when you are investing money,
02:59when you are advising an investor,
03:01you tell him all the risks.
03:03So, their information is not so speculative.
03:07Obviously, they have some ground information
03:10that they talk to political players,
03:12they talk to the investors here.
03:14So, on the basis of that, they give their own assessment.
03:16Sometimes, there is an exaggeration in that assessment.
03:19Like, we are here.
03:21We are probably not seeing that thing so big.
03:23But those who are sitting in other countries,
03:25there are very surprising things for them.
03:27But one thing should be understood,
03:29the two or three things they said.
03:31Number one, the message they get is that
03:33the international community and institutions
03:35are not so optimistic about this system.
03:38Yes.
03:39Whether it is wrong or right,
03:40this is their assessment.
03:42Okay, secondly, they also see that
03:44if they are not optimistic about this government,
03:45they are also seeing that
03:47this party, in the form of PTI,
03:50they are also not seeing a bright future.
03:53Okay?
03:54We will be able to talk about that
03:56when we get a chance in the future,
03:57why are there reasons for that?
03:58What are the reasons?
03:59Okay.
04:00So, from the political class,
04:02you will see that they are disappointed
04:06that they are not seeing a bright future.
04:09Secondly, if you talk about economic reforms,
04:12you will see that we have been criticizing
04:14that you are not seeing a vision in that.
04:17Through the same tried and tested formulas,
04:19they have tried to meet the requirements of the IMF.
04:22Yes.
04:23That is, they have not increased the net tax,
04:27they have deepened it.
04:29Yes.
04:30They have deepened it.
04:31That is, the same salaried class
04:33and the same big corporate.
04:35That is, the one whose neck is in the clutches,
04:37he is the one who is trapped.
04:39The same poor one is trapped,
04:40the oppressed one like you and me.
04:42So, they understand there too.
04:44So, I mean, you cannot reject it all of a sudden,
04:47but this is a kind of messaging for the Shahbaz government.
04:50See, there is nothing like writing a wall.
04:52You can change your destiny.
04:54So, they are seeing this,
04:55so if Mr. Shahbaz Sharif takes this seriously,
04:57the government should take it seriously,
04:59address those issues,
05:00bring stability to the country,
05:02and make the economic policies a little realistic,
05:06tighten the belt,
05:08tightening the belt means austerity.
05:11Then your state,
05:13it should not be that you have put all the burden on the common man,
05:16and the luxuries of the rule of decency,
05:18they are not even ready to reduce their pockets,
05:20they are not even ready to reduce their car expenses.
05:22Exactly.
05:23They are increasing their bumps and privileges.
05:25The point is that the purpose of getting control of the IMF
05:28is not that you pass on the message of everything.
05:31If the IMF has said that you will have to see harsh conditions,
05:34then Mr. Shahbaz Sharif,
05:35if you tell the public that you will have to see harsh conditions,
05:38then this is not one-way traffic.
05:40If you allow me to say one thing,
05:42Mr. Khasmi and Mr. Hassan gave a very good opinion.
05:45Look, the IMF does not go into your nitty-gritty.
05:47The IMF says that you have to keep your budget deficit at this percentage.
05:52Now, how do you keep it?
05:54You hang your horse's tail,
05:55you ride it on your back,
05:56they have no purpose.
05:57They say that you should spend as much as your income.
06:02Okay.
06:03If you have increased your PSDP,
06:05if you have increased your government's welfare by 30 to 62 percent,
06:09then this is a crime.
06:11You expect us to work in a low budget.
06:13You are not ready to do it.
06:15You are not ready to shut down the AC of your president's house.
06:18You have to lead from the front.
06:19That should be the case so that the public can follow you.
06:21Mr. Hassan Ayyub, what is your point of view?
06:23My opinion is that when you do such things,
06:28it is okay that you are expressing your opinion
06:31on the basis of your experience or keeping the economy in mind.
06:35But how does its impact and speculation glorify and flourish?
06:40And of course, it will have an impact on our stock market,
06:42it will have an impact on our government,
06:44it will have an impact on our mindset as well.
06:45So, do you think that this is the right thing to do
06:47on the part of Fitch?
06:51Look, they have obviously given their opinion.
06:56They have given their opinion on the basis of their information
07:00or the information base that they had.
07:02They have made their projections on the basis of that.
07:05But the politics of Pakistan is very different.
07:08And in the politics of Pakistan,
07:10you change the situation in a week or an hour.
07:14So, at this time, to say that Banerjee chairman
07:18will be in jail for five years,
07:21maybe I should not accept this.
07:23Although I keep saying that
07:25Mr. Imran Khan has to be in jail for a long time.
07:28But will he be there for five years or four more years?
07:32So, I don't see this happening.
07:35In my opinion, the duration of his stay in jail will be less than that.
07:39This is one thing.
07:40The second thing that they are saying is that
07:42the economic difficulties of Pakistan,
07:45I agree with the projections of Fitch in the coming days.
07:54The economic situation is not good at the moment.
07:57And no one in Pakistan, who has money,
08:02is also not ready to take it out and put it in the market.
08:06The interest rate is 25.5%.
08:09In such a situation, which industry can run
08:12by taking a loan from the banks?
08:14Or in such a situation,
08:16who will put their money in the market instead of keeping it in the bank?
08:20There is so much uncertainty.
08:25I was saying that there is so much uncertainty.
08:27Secondly, the government's prediction of 18 months,
08:30that a technocratic set-up will come after that,
08:32what are you foreseeing?
08:34Is there anything like that on the cards?
08:38I was saying that the projections of Pakistan's politics,
08:43including Mr. Imran Khan's arrest and his stay in jail,
08:47I do not agree with both of them.
08:49Here people are saying that this is a government,
08:53it will not even last a year.
08:55But some people are saying that it will last five years.
08:58So, it will be a waste of time to say about this.
09:02I think it is impossible to talk more than two or three months
09:05in Pakistan's politics.
09:08Even the biggest politician or the biggest journalist,
09:13if he talks about such a long time,
09:16then there will be a difference of 10-20 years.
09:19So, Pakistan's politics runs very fast.
09:22Now, someone had thought that Mr. Atta Tarar
09:25will talk about running a case under Article 17,
09:29or he will talk about Article 6.
09:31Until a month ago, there was no doubt in anyone's mind.
09:34But suddenly this came to light.
09:36And today is the third or fourth day.
09:38All your debates have changed.