Hundreds of China's top leaders are meeting for the Third Plenum, a three-day forum that has often seen the country set its major long-term economic policy. But faced with a growing number of domestic and international challenges to its economy, many observers are skeptical that one meeting can resolve all of China's ills.
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00:00Hundreds of China's top officials are converging on Beijing for a three-day meeting that could
00:06set the course for the country's economy in the years to come.
00:10The third plenum sees the Central Committee, the Chinese Communist Party's highest institution,
00:15announce major economic and development policy.
00:18For China, that could mean a much-needed jumpstart to an economy showing increasing signs of
00:23strain and slowdown.
00:25That has a lot to do with the country's spiraling debt.
00:28China has grown out of debt, extreme leverage, very large leverage, which has created a very
00:37low return on assets because there's too much investment.
00:41So now China would need to reduce the share of investment because it's the highest in
00:46the world.
00:47The committee will also need to address a real estate crisis and pass some sort of fiscal
00:51reform so that local governments can hold on to more of their tax revenue.
00:57And those are just the domestic issues.
00:59China also faces growing backlash against what other countries are calling unfair trade
01:04practices, with both the U.S. and EU slapping tariffs on Chinese exports in recent months.
01:10But trade challenges are unlikely to be resolved at the meeting.
01:13I think that the only way that they'll address it at the plenum is rhetorically by claiming
01:20that there is no overcapacity, there are no subsidies, and that exports are perfectly
01:25natural and that the U.S. should get rid of its tariffs.
01:28So that's really not going to make a difference.
01:32A course correction wouldn't be unprecedented from the Chinese leadership.
01:36Past third plenums have proved pivotal to China's economy.
01:39In 1978, then-leader Deng Xiaoping used the event to announce the reform and opening policy
01:45that would set China on the path to becoming the world's second largest economy.
01:50But the country's policymaking system is extremely opaque.
01:53The plenum is often seen as a platform for rubber-stamping plans that are already set
01:58in stone.
01:59And those plans are increasingly guided by one man, Chinese President Xi Jinping.
02:05Because of that, there's little confidence among economists and investors that one meeting
02:09can fix China's many ills.
02:12It's really not going to change anything.
02:14And I think that's because their hands are tied.
02:17I just don't see a way out of this without structurally reforming the system.
02:22I just think that China is going into deep recession, and there's nothing to do about that.
02:28Most observers expect the plenum to focus on moving the economy from low-level manufacturing
02:33to advanced industry.
02:34It's also likely there will be nothing concrete on the economy until the party lays out its
02:39next five-year plan in 2025.
02:41The next period, the next term for the five years of programming on the national economics
02:49and the social development will start from 2026 until 2030.
02:58So at this time, it's still too early about that.
03:02Beyond the economy, personnel changes are also expected at the meeting.
03:07That would include an official announcement of the ouster of several high-level officials
03:11from the Central Committee.
03:13Among them are Qin Gang, the deposed former foreign affairs minister, and ex-defense
03:18minister Li Sangfu.
03:20Both were fired from their jobs last year over alleged misconduct and corruption.
03:24With this year's third plenum now underway, China's partners and rivals will be watching
03:29to see how it chooses to handle a growing number of hurdles that could hurt its aims
03:34of becoming the dominant regional power.
03:36Joseph Wu and Jeremy Olivier for Taiwan Plus.