Updated AL ROY Odds After Wyatt's Big Home Run
Ken and Jeremy update the Real Ones on AL Rookie of the Year
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00:00So yesterday, the theory that I kind of put forth was, okay, you know, probably good to wait at least like a day or two to figure out if there's going to be like a late closer that can impact the race.
00:15But really, like, the question to ask is, is it just going to be Healer Langford? And if it's not them, who? And we went through a few players yesterday, just like, if it's not Healer Langford, is it blank?
00:26And we would just name players, and it was just, no, no, no, he's crossing off like all of these, and just nobody makes a lot of sense, especially that next, like, six, seven, eight names.
00:35So we were kind of like, all right, it's Healer Langford or Crazy Town, essentially, is where this market is going to go. So Langford keeps playing well.
00:43Gets a home run last night. War continues to use F-War and B-War a lot more in this segment. So he's up to 1.7 B-War, which is still second among all rookies in the AL behind Luis Gil.
00:55And finally reaches the very prestigious one win plateau in Fangraft's War, which hates him for a bunch of reasons. But still, like, building momentum, playing better.
01:06And I think more importantly, just since he returned from injury, I mean, this has been a consistent star turn, essentially, where he has basically had no swoon yet since returning from his injury, like, at the end of May.
01:17He's played really, really well, and it continued last night. So his price drops, plus 125. But the thing I would just emphasize again, and hey, who knows, like, every year can be different.
01:29Maybe, maybe this is the year that the thing that always happens doesn't happen. But man, if you're using, like, a war leaderboard to handicap Rookie of the Year, I mean, it's getting a little crazy.
01:39Like, Langford's not even ahead. Like, not, not ahead right now, in anything. He's not winning. He's not ahead. If you measure this by wins above replacement, and he's being priced like it's starting to be a runaway, and it's not. It's not a runaway.
01:56Yes, Jake and I would do cartwheels in the rain, you know? Like, I just, if he won the award, we would just, it's Scrooge McDuck with the coins if he wins. It's gonna be, it's awesome if he wins. But there's so much left that has to happen in order for that to be the case.
02:13I mean, he's, you know, sixth among AL rookies in F-War right now. Sixth. It's plus 135, plus 125 to win the award. Like, there's a lot of work. Look, I mean, if he plays like this for the next 70 games, yeah, he's gonna win. That's kind of what the market's pricing, too.
02:30Like, he's just gonna keep doing this, because he's been doing it for about a month and a half. But he still has to keep doing it. Like, it's not, this isn't some Aaron Judge lead that has happened, or Shohei Otani in the NL, where it's like, no, he's like, really far ahead. That's why the price is starting to get where it is. We're nowhere close to that right now.
02:47He's actually still very much in the pack in one of the war projections, and he's in second in the other. So, like, I want him to win. Jake wants him to win. I hope he wins. I hope he hits a home run every night. It'd be great. And then he'd win. Just, it's getting a little tough to justify the price based on what's happening. And I think it says a lot more about the total, like, undesirability of all of the other candidates than it says that, like, he's having this breakthrough, you know, far and away best season.