National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan provides the latest updates on Tropical Storm Beryl.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Everybody, this is Mike Brennan here at the National Hurricane Center.
00:02It's just after 4 p.m. Central Time on Sunday, July 7th.
00:05Coming on with the latest on what is a tropical storm barrel
00:08now passing just to the east of the lower Texas coast.
00:11You can see here on the radar imagery, the system's gradually
00:14becoming better organized.
00:15We've seen the peak winds come up just a little bit today,
00:17still around 65 miles per hour, based on the latest data we've gotten
00:21from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
00:23who are out in the storm right now.
00:24But they've also found that the pressure continues to drop
00:27in the center of the storm, and it's down to 988 millibars.
00:30It's down several millibars since the since this morning.
00:33So barrel is gradually becoming better organized,
00:36and we are still expecting intensification, maybe even steady
00:40to rapid intensification in the last 12 to 18 hours or so
00:43before the system moves on shore along the coast of Texas.
00:47If we zoom out a little bit, we can see those outer rain bands
00:50from barrel moving inland across portions of southeast Texas,
00:53even into portions of Louisiana,
00:55bringing heavy rainfall out in advance of the storm.
00:58And barrel is currently moving now to the north northwest at 12 miles per hour.
01:03And that motion is going to bring the center on shore
01:05and portions of the middle Texas coast either overnight tonight
01:08and early Monday morning.
01:10So again, barrels got multiple life threatening hazards associated with it.
01:14We're going to step through those here, starting first with the storm surge.
01:18We actually have some higher storm surge forecast values now,
01:21especially in this area from Port O'Connor up to San Luis Pass,
01:25including Matagorda Bay.
01:26Expecting somewhere in here to see four to seven feet of inundation
01:30above ground level as the center of barrel moves on shore near this region
01:34overnight tonight and early Monday morning.
01:36We still have that storm surge warning in effect for portions of the lower
01:40at the lower and middle Texas coast, all the way from Sabine Pass
01:44down here to the north entrance of the South Padre Island National Seashore.
01:49Again, expecting four to seven feet of inundation above ground level
01:52somewhere in this region,
01:53but also seeing some higher values now up into Galveston Bay
01:56and also from San Luis Pass to High Island.
01:58Expecting four to six feet of inundation here as there's going to be a long
02:02duration onshore flow into the Galveston Bay region
02:05as barrel tracks to the west of that location.
02:09And we are already seeing some inundation of about two feet above ground level,
02:13say places like Eagle Point up in Galveston Bay.
02:15We're going into low tide now, but as the next tide cycle starts
02:19and the water starts to come up overnight, we'll see those values rise
02:22and probably peak out sometime tomorrow morning as barrel moves onshore.
02:26So everybody in these areas, it's in a storm surge evacuation zone.
02:29If you've been asked to leave by local officials, please do so.
02:32You have just a few more hours to get to a safe place.
02:35Just drive a few miles inland to get out of that storm surge zone
02:37to a safe place where you can shelter safely during the storm.
02:41If we move on to the wind front here, we have a hurricane warning
02:45in effect for the coast of Texas from Baffin Bay up to San Luis Pass.
02:49Most concerned about this area to the east of Corpus Christi,
02:52up to the San Luis Pass area, where we're expecting the core of barrel
02:55to move onshore overnight tonight and early Monday morning.
02:59Tropical storm warnings in effect to the south and the north,
03:01including the Houston-Galveston area and also extending inland up
03:05into portions of southeastern Texas, including Bryan, up to just to the south
03:09and west of Lufkin, with the potential for tropical storm conditions
03:12reaching well inland as barrel moves inland overnight during the day on Monday.
03:18And let's go to the track forecast and we'll look at that forecast here.
03:21You can see by overnight tonight and early Monday morning,
03:24the center of barrel moving onshore within the hurricane warning area
03:27and then a northward to northeastward motion across east Texas
03:30as we go from Monday into Monday night and Tuesday.
03:33And then barrel is going to lose its tropical characteristics
03:35and continue on moving up into the mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys
03:38as we go through the middle portions of the week.
03:41Now, let's talk about the rainfall.
03:42This is going to be a big threat across not just the Texas Gulf Coast,
03:46but also into much of eastern Texas and even portions of western
03:49Louisiana and portions of Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma.
03:52We're expecting widespread rainfall totals of five to ten inches
03:55for places like Houston, Galveston, up to Palestine, Tyler, Texarkana,
03:59up into western Arkansas.
04:02Some locations could see isolated totals as high as 15 inches.
04:06If we get into one of these rain bands that doesn't move
04:09and we continue to see heavy rainfall occurring over the same area,
04:13some of the highest rainfall totals could be down here
04:15near where barrel makes landfall in the mid Texas coast up to the Galveston area.
04:19And given that there is a very considerable risk of flash flooding
04:23across the Texas Gulf Coast, eastern Texas, the Arklatex region.
04:28This is where we have flood watches in effect now,
04:31and we likely see those continue to expand northward and eastward.
04:34But we're talking about places like Tyler just to the southeast of Dallas,
04:38Houston, Galveston, all of east Texas.
04:41And in particular, as we go from Monday into Tuesday,
04:44this red area is where we are likely to see perhaps some significant
04:48flash flooding risk again, those same locations.
04:51This is a level three out of four flash flooding risk. Very concerned.
04:55There could be considerable flash and especially urban flooding,
04:58particularly if we get heavy rainfall over a prolonged period of time,
05:00say in the Houston, Galveston area, in combination with the storm surge
05:04occurring in Galveston Bay, could cause some very compact,
05:06complex flooding in that region.
05:08So everybody in these regions, again, needs to make sure
05:12they have multiple ways to receive emergency information
05:15as we go through the event.
05:16And we'll talk a little bit more about that in a minute.
05:18Finally, let's touch on the tornado threat.
05:20We've seen our first tornado
05:21warning actually up here in portions of Louisiana just within the last hour.
05:24But as those outer rain bands from Barrow move on shore tonight and Monday,
05:28the greatest risk overnight for tornadoes is from just east of Victoria
05:32up through Houston, Galveston, over to Beaumont, Port Arthur,
05:35down in the Cameron Parish in Louisiana on Monday.
05:38That risk is going to spread northward and eastward across east Texas,
05:41western Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas.
05:45So let's just finally touch on the rip current risk.
05:47We've been talking about this folks along the Texas coast.
05:50You know, it's not a good day to be in the ocean.
05:52It's a you've got a hurricane expected hurricane to making landfall
05:55in the next few hours.
05:56But farther east along the Gulf Coast, dangerous ocean conditions
06:00in places like the Florida Panhandle, the Alabama coast.
06:03Please heed any rip current warnings flags.
06:05Don't get in the ocean.
06:06Follow advice given by your local officials there.
06:09So just to wrap up with the key messages, we've got the danger
06:11of multiple life threatening hazards in the landfall area tonight.
06:15We're going to see the danger of life
06:17threatening storm surge inundation, dangerous hurricane force winds.
06:20Tropical storm conditions will be arriving along the coast
06:23in the hurricane warning area within just the next few hours.
06:26So you're going to want to be in your safe place to ride out the storm,
06:29certainly by nightfall tonight.
06:30Plan to stay in a safe place overnight tonight and into at least a Monday
06:34morning, if not through much of the day on Monday, as hazardous conditions
06:37will persist even after the center of barrel moves through.
06:41Again, we're looking at a considerable flash and urban flooding threat
06:45across the portions of the Texas Gulf Coast into much of East Texas
06:48as we go from tonight into Monday and Tuesday.
06:51And again, we touched on that current risk that's broadly spread
06:54across the Gulf of Mexico.
06:55So for those of you in the Texas Gulf Coast, East Texas,
06:58make sure you have multiple ways to receive emergency information,
07:01especially as we go into the overnight hours.
07:03Make sure you have a NOAA weather radio that will alert you
07:06if there's a tornado warning or flash flood warning issued for your area.
07:09Make sure wireless emergency alerts are turned on on your phone
07:12so that you will be alerted if dangerous conditions approach your area.
07:16So please stay tuned.
07:17We'll be with you throughout the night here at the National Hurricane Center,
07:19providing updates on hurricanes.gov.
07:22You can find more information at your local National Weather
07:24Service office at weather.gov.
07:26And we'll be back with more later on Hurricane Barrel.
07:28Thanks for joining us.
07:29I'm Mike Brennan at the National Hurricane Center.