On Saturday, the National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Michael Brennan delivered updates on Hurricane Beryl.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Good morning, everybody. This is Mike Brennan here at the National Hurricane Center.
00:02It's just after 10 a.m. Central Time on Saturday, July 6th, coming on with an update on Tropical Storm Beryl and its threat to much of the Texas coast.
00:11It's going to develop here over the next couple of days. You can see on satellite imagery here that Beryl continues to move steadily west northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico at about 12 miles per hour,
00:20currently centered about just under 500 miles to the southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, and moving off again west northwestward.
00:28We've seen shower and thunderstorm activity increasing near the center of Beryl this morning.
00:31We've seen the pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft come down just a little bit, but the winds data from the aircraft suggest the winds are still around 60 miles per hour.
00:39So we're not expecting a lot of intensification with Beryl today, but we are expecting it to move into a more favorable environment as it nears the coast of Texas beginning Sunday and then continuing up until landfall on Monday.
00:51So let's hit the hazards again. Here we have a storm surge watch that continues in effect all the way from the mouth of the Rio Grande up to High Island, Texas, with a widespread potential for two to four feet of inundation above ground level.
01:03But we're most concerned about this area here between San Luis Pass and Baffin Bay, including places like Matagorda Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, where we could see storm surge inundation of three to five feet above ground level.
01:16So we'll likely issue a storm surge warning for portions of this this area later today and begin to focus in on the area that has the greatest potential for that life threatening inundation.
01:26But anybody living within this storm surge watch area, if you live in a storm surge evacuation zone, please start making preparations in case you are asked to evacuate by local officials and get ready to potentially you might need to leave your home, especially on these barrier islands.
01:39But also in these bays, Galveston Bay, Matagorda Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, where we could see some of those higher inundation values play out as Barrel makes landfall along the Texas coast on Monday.
01:51Moving on now to the hazards associated with the wind, we have a hurricane watch that's in effect from San Luis Pass just west of Galveston, all the way down the Texas coast to the mouth of the Rio Grande, including places like Corpus Christi, Port O'Connor, South Padre Island.
02:06We've also issued a tropical storm warning from south of the mouth of the Rio Grande up to south of Baffin Bay.
02:12So we are expecting tropical storm conditions within this region within the next thirty six hours or so.
02:17Hurricane conditions are possible everywhere within that hurricane watch area beginning, say, Sunday night and continuing into Monday with the landfall of Barrel expected along the coast of Texas.
02:28If we look at the track forecast, it really hasn't changed much this morning.
02:32We're expecting a north west, north westward to north westward motion to develop over the next day or so.
02:38And with a northward turn expected Sunday night and Monday.
02:42And this is where this area here is where Barrel is going to get into that more favorable environment for some intensification.
02:47We are expecting the system to go on and regain hurricane strength.
02:51Now, when you look at the track forecast here, you want to keep in mind that it won't take a very small shift to make a big difference in where Barrel makes landfall.
02:57If it moves, say, just to the west of our forecast, it can make landfall more on the lower Texas coast.
03:02A shift to the right would bring it up towards closer towards the past Matagorda Bay, up towards the San Luis Pass area.
03:10So everyone here is at risk of seeing those hurricane and storm surge conditions.
03:14And we'll see how the track sorts itself out after landfall, as expected.
03:19Barrel will quickly weaken from a wind perspective, but it's going to bring a heavy rainfall threat across much of eastern Texas.
03:25And if we look at that rainfall threat over the next couple of days, going actually all the way into the middle portions of next week,
03:32we're expecting widespread rainfall totals across the portions of the Texas Gulf Coast, much of eastern Texas of five to 10 inches.
03:39We don't know exactly where that heaviest rainfall is going to fall.
03:41It will depend on the details of Barrel's track.
03:44But the potential is there for some isolated totals to exceed 15 inches in some locations.
03:49And that's going to lead to the potential for some fairly significant flash flooding, especially as we get into the day on Monday.
03:56We have a level three out of four risk for flash flooding in places like Victoria, Houston, Bryan College Station up to Palestine.
04:04This is the area that we're most concerned about for the potential for some pretty considerable flash flooding, especially during the day on Monday.
04:10That flash flood risk will also extend up into portions of the Arklatex region and continue later on into the week.
04:17I also want to touch on the rip current risk as Barrel moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
04:21There's going to be widespread dangerous surf and rip currents across much of the Gulf Coast.
04:26So please heed any warning flags you see.
04:28Distant hurricanes can be deadly.
04:30So even in places like the Florida Panhandle, the Florida West Coast, Alabama Gulf Coast, if you see dangerous conditions in the ocean,
04:37you see those double flags flying or red flags flying, please stay out of the water and heed any advice from your local officials.
04:43I do want to touch briefly on the tornado threat that's going to develop beginning on Sunday along portions of the Texas Gulf Coast.
04:50Places like Houston, Galveston to Victoria, down to Corpus Christi could see the threat of tornadoes as those rain bands from Barrel begin to move on shore later on Sunday.
05:00So just a couple of quick reminders before we wrap up is remember, get official forecast information from here at the National Hurricane Center at Hurricanes.gov.
05:08You can also find more information from your local National Weather Service office at Weather.gov.
05:12Make sure you have multiple ways to receive emergency information and weather warnings through, you know, a weather radio.
05:19Make sure wireless emergency alerts are turned on on your smartphone.
05:23Make sure, again, you have multiple ways to get information, especially overnight when you're asleep.
05:27Flash flood warnings, tornado warnings can be issued with very short notice and you want to take action immediately if you hear those.
05:34And again, remember to focus on the impacts of the storm, not whether Barrel is currently a tropical storm or hurricane.
05:39Remember to keep focused on those water hazards, especially.
05:42Those are the ones that kill the most people in tropical storms and hurricanes in the United States, the rainfall flooding and the storm surge.
05:48And pay attention to any watches and warnings that are issued.
05:51So we'll wrap up quickly here with the key messages.
05:54There's an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane force winds, life threatening storm surge,
05:58heavy rainfall flooding across the lower and middle Texas coast beginning Sunday into Monday,
06:03with that rainfall flooding spreading eastward into much of eastern Texas as we go through the middle portions of next week.
06:10And again, rip currents are going to be a big hazard along the Gulf Coast this weekend and into next week as well.
06:15So please stay tuned for more updates here from the National Hurricane Center.
06:19We'll be having another update on Barrel later today.
06:21Thanks for joining us. I'm Mike Brennan.