高度なテクニカル分析、誤ったブレイクアウトトラップ
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00:00Hey guys, welcome back to another episode.
00:02In this video, we're going to show you one of the most important concepts you need to know,
00:06which is getting around the dreaded false breakout.
00:09As always, to show your support, please hit the like button,
00:11as it goes a long way in supporting our team.
00:19So what is a false breakout?
00:25In an uptrend, you notice price break through a key level of resistance.
00:29So you think to yourself, this shows heavy bullish momentum,
00:32and you expect price to continue up.
00:34So you enter a trend following long trade.
00:37Then what happens?
00:38Price might move a little more, but then it reverses drastically.
00:41You end up holding the bag, losing money, and you got trapped by the false breakout.
00:46In a downtrend, the same thing.
00:48Price breaks through a key level of support, and you think this momentum will continue down.
00:53So you get into a trend following short trade.
00:55Price then might move slightly more before it reverses drastically.
00:59You end up holding the bag, losing money, and you got trapped by the false breakout.
01:03This occurs because of three reasons.
01:06First, you entered through a simple trend following strategy with nothing else,
01:13which is a low quality trade entry.
01:16Second, sometimes market makers will use shady methods to manipulate price
01:21so that it pushes it slightly through these key levels,
01:24which traps amateur FOMO breakout traders.
01:26Because this isn't a real momentum move up,
01:29once those buy orders dry up, selling pressure begins and price reverses.
01:34And third, trend exhaustion.
01:37So when you get into a trade close to the start of a move, this is known as a fresh trend,
01:41which is where price has legs and room to move,
01:44because traders just got into the trade and haven't made their money yet.
01:47So they most likely aren't closing out these positions so soon.
01:50Fresh trends or fresh reversals are higher quality trade entries
01:54because you can capture a larger portion of the move as you are getting in early.
01:58Now in contrast, if you get into a trade up here, after price has already moved significantly,
02:03price might suffer from what we call trend exhaustion,
02:05which is when traders have made their money and see potential risks coming up,
02:09and they decide to start taking profit and locking in gains.
02:12If enough people take profit, the trend will reverse.
02:15Now does trend exhaustion mean that the trend will reverse 100%?
02:18No, it does not.
02:20Price can go on and on, but in terms of trade quality,
02:23the higher quality trade entry would be closer to the start of the trend
02:26and at the start of a fresh trend change.
02:28So now, let's say you really want to trade with breakout momentum,
02:32but you don't want to get caught in a false breakout.
02:34There are two ways to help you get around this problem.
02:40The first way to get around a false breakout is to wait for a continuation pattern to form.
02:45So on the left is the 4-hour time frame and on the right is the 1-hour time frame of the same asset.
02:54Price breaks through the key level and you decide you want to take a continuation trade long,
02:59but you don't know if this is a real breakout or a false breakout.
03:02So what you need to do is wait for price to form a continuation pattern
03:05on the lower time frame.
03:06And the pattern you had in this case was a perfect descending channel pattern.
03:10Then once price broke above the pattern and in the same direction of the larger breakout direction,
03:15this shows that continued bullish momentum has entered the market
03:18and that the consolidation has ended and that this is not a false breakout, but a real breakout.
03:23This is then when you would look for a long trade entry point.
03:26Now, what happens if price breaks in the opposite direction after the pattern forms?
03:32This is the Robinhood stock.
03:34On the left is the Robinhood 4-hour time frame and on the right is the 30-minute time frame.
03:38You had your key level here before price broke through the key level.
03:41Now again, you need to wait for a consolidation pattern to form on a lower time frame,
03:46which you had through this channel pattern that forms.
03:48In order to take a long breakout entry, you would want price to break out above,
03:53but instead price broke below, which signals a reversal
03:57and confirms that this is indeed a false breakout and not a true breakout.
04:01So no trade entry long.
04:03Now, let's get into a better method of getting around false breakouts,
04:06which is waiting for what we call a shallow pullback to occur.
04:14You have your uptrend before price breaks through the key level.
04:17Now, what you do is you wait for price to pull back immediately after it breaks
04:22and form a candle at the resistance turn to new support,
04:26which is what we call a shallow pullback entry.
04:29A traditional pullback moves a lot further up and wider out before it pulls back,
04:36but a shallow pullback occurs very close to where the breakout occurred.
04:39This shallow pullback entry setup allows for new buyers to enter the market
04:43and new long positions to be opened,
04:45which creates continued momentum for the uptrend
04:48and allows you to get around a false breakout.
04:51Let's show this again.
04:52Breakthrough, shallow pullback, long trade setup.
04:56Now, in a downtrend, this works the same.
04:59Breakthrough, shallow pullback, short trade setup.
05:03Again.
05:05Breakthrough, shallow pullback, short trade setup.
05:09Now, this same setup occurred on the Tesla stock as well.
05:12On the left is the Tesla daily timeframe.
05:14You have your resistance zone here.
05:16Price then breaks through the key resistance level.
05:18Now, to confirm that this is a real breakout,
05:20and not a fake out, you wait for a shallow pullback like this.
05:24But to confirm the shallow pullback is over,
05:26use the one hour timeframe on the right.
05:28When the shallow pullback reached the new support level,
05:31price gapped up, which presented a long trade opportunity
05:34and confirms that the breakout is real and not a fake out.
05:37So now, you can actually use false breakouts to your advantage
05:40and take reversal trade entries.
05:50So, you have your key level of resistance.
05:59When price breaks through, traders who immediately entered a long continuation trade
06:03would have most likely placed their stop losses somewhere in this region here.
06:08After they all got trapped and price reversed, all those stop losses were hit,
06:12which triggered a massive move in the opposite direction,
06:15hence the big bearish momentum candle that formed.
06:18So now, knowing that this can occur,
06:20you can use this to your advantage and take reversal trades using false breakouts.
06:24This way, you are getting into a fresh trend trade and not a trend exhausted trade.
06:29Let's break this down.
06:31You have your key level of support.
06:33As price came back down, price breaks through.
06:36At this point, you have no idea whether this is a real breakout or a false breakout.
06:40So, you look inside of this area on a lower timeframe and see what you can find.
06:44What you had inside of the breakout area was a divergence and a wedge pattern.
06:48Once price breaks out above and forms a higher high,
06:50this shows that this was a false breakout and not a real breakout.
06:53This breakout also confirms the reversal and allows you to take long entries with the momentum
06:59from all the stop losses that will be hit on the way up.
07:02Now, false breakouts don't just occur through key levels of support or resistance,
07:05but they can also occur after a trendline break.
07:14Now, trendline break entries are better than support and resistance break entries because
07:26trendline breaks often occur at the start of a trend change or close to the start of a fresh
07:30trend.
07:31Now, trendline breaks can also suffer from false breakouts,
07:34where it starts as a break, fails, and reverses down.
07:37Again, two simple ways to get around trendline break false breakouts.
07:41First, a continuation pattern that forms after the trendline break.
07:45You first had your double bottom, which gives you bullish momentum for the trade
07:49and gives you a long directional bias.
07:51The break of the trendline and higher high confirms the double bottom long trade setup.
07:55You again, wait and see if you have a consolidation pattern that forms on a lower
07:59timeframe, such as this ascending channel pattern here.
08:01And once price broke above, this confirms the trendline break is real and not a fake
08:06out.
08:06And then you would take long trade entries.
08:08Now, the second way to get around a trendline break false breakout is to wait for a pullback
08:12entry.
08:13Clear moving downtrend before you had your trendline break and higher high.
08:17And what you do is you wait and see if you get a pullback entry, such as this one right
08:21here, where price pulled back to the new support level and moving average and fib level and
08:26formed multiple long with candles at this area of confluence.
08:29After you had your intraday trend change confirmation, you would look for a long
08:32entry points.
08:34Now, here is an advanced bonus technique.
08:37It's the concept of knowing where price is coming from.
08:46Let's say you notice this long with candle at the key support level.
08:49And you think to yourself, this is a great long trade.
08:52But now if you look to the left and look to where price is coming from, you would know
08:56that this isn't the best long trade setup.
08:58You had a clear recent short trade setup here through the long with candle at confluence
09:03resistance followed by a trendline break, which means there is current bearish momentum.
09:08So if you entered this long trade here, you are going against where true momentum is headed
09:13and true momentum is bearish and downwards.
09:16What this means is there is a higher chance that this long with candle will fail and price
09:20will push right through.
09:21Now, a very simple solution.
09:23Just pass on the trade setup and move on.
09:25That's it.
09:26There's hundreds of high quality trade setups a day.
09:28No need to risk it on these low quality trade setups.
09:32Let's show this again.
09:34You notice these two long with candles at the key resistance level.
09:38And you think to yourself, this is a great short trade setup.
09:40But now if you look to the left and to where price is coming from, you would know that
09:44this isn't the best short trade setup.
09:46You had a clear recent long trade setup here through the multiple long with candles reacting
09:51to the support level.
09:52This was also a wide divergence, which is a higher quality reversal trade setup.
09:57And then you also had a trendline break.
09:59All of this signals current heavy bullish momentum.
10:03So if you entered the short trade here, you're going against where true momentum is headed,
10:08which is bullish and upwards.
10:10What this means is there is a higher chance that the long with candle will fail and price
10:14will push right through.
10:16Again, all you have to do is just pass on these lower quality trade setups and move
10:20on.
10:21Now, this same concept applies to false breakouts as well.
10:25So you notice this candle breakthrough support, but you aren't sure if this is a real breakout
10:29or a potential false breakout.
10:31Again, if you look to where price is coming from, you would notice something very telling.
10:36You had this recent high quality short trade setup at this area of confluence where the
10:40trendline resistance level and moving average all crossed.
10:44This gives the moving trend a short directional bias and heavy bearish momentum.
10:48What this means is this type of breakout has a higher chance of being a true short trade
10:52breakout has a higher chance of being a true breakout and not a false breakout.
10:56In cases like this, it's better to avoid taking any kind of reversal trade because they can
11:01end up being fake out reversals where you get a slight pullback or a slight bounce,
11:05but then they will continue onwards.
11:07The best thing to do in this case would be to take a breakout continuation trade using
11:11the methods we have previously showed you in this video as you have bearish momentum
11:14from the recent short trade setup, also known as the trigger event.
11:19So we have a new video series we'll be releasing on our channel soon where we do quick breakdowns
11:23of highly requested topics.
11:25But right now in the comments, tell us exactly what other topics you want us to cover.
11:29It can be anything from trading to investing to finance.
11:32Let us know in the comments right now.
11:35Also, if you want access to more content and more tools, head on over to our website at
11:39wisetrade.com.
11:42As always, to show your support, please hit the like button as it goes a long way in supporting
11:46our team.
11:47And also go follow our Instagram account at wisetrade.
11:51So thanks for watching, and I'll see you in the next episode.
12:16Transcribed by https://otter.ai