'Unprecedented': Why Meteorologists Are Shocked By Hurricane Beryl And What It Could Mean This Year

2 months ago

Meteorologist Dr. Marshall Shepherd joined Brittany Lewis on "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss Hurricane Beryl.

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Transcript

00:00to talk to you and you are the perfect person to break down what we're seeing today. The first

00:05hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season is expected to make landfall. So what do we need to know?

00:12Well you know it's still pretty far out from making landfall right now but I'm more concerned

00:17at this moment about what we're seeing in the Caribbean because we have at the time of this

00:22recording a category 4 hurricane and it's July 1st. That's just unprecedented. It actually was

00:32a category 4 as early as June 30th. We just don't see hurricanes period this early. We typically

00:39expect our first hurricane Atlantic season around August 11th and to have one that's a major

00:45hurricane category 3 or higher it's just unbelievable. What's also unbelievable is that

00:52this storm formed where it did. Typically in late June and early July these storms are forming more

00:59in the Gulf of Mexico or down near the Bay of Campeche. They aren't forming in what we call

01:04the main development region. That region you know in the Atlantic where we typically see storms later

01:09in the year as they're coming off of Africa and become storms. So and to top that off to give you

01:15the sort of trifecta if you will it's so far south or equatorward. This thing's very is close

01:23to Grenada and Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago and the northern shores of South America. Just

01:29unbelievable to have a storm that far south but you're right as we look to the future we do have

01:34to keep an eye on a potential landfall in Mexico and perhaps ultimately in the U.S. as well.

01:40So let's talk about these unprecedented factors first. Why are we seeing it so far south?

01:48You know I think that's a question that many of us in the field are asking as well because we

01:52don't see these storms that far south and we don't typically see these storms forming

01:57in the main development region at this time of year either. So here's what's going on Brittany.

02:02One we transitioned from an El Nino to a La Nina. So La Nina means they're colder than normal waters

02:09in the eastern central Pacific and that affects the wind shear patterns believe it or not in the

02:13atmosphere. Hurricanes like low or less shear. They form better when there's not a lot of change in

02:19wind speed or direction as you go up in the atmosphere because it tends to rip them apart.

02:23They like to stay vertical in terms of their development. So unusually favorable shear

02:29conditions are present right now in that part of the Atlantic. Typically a storm that would form at

02:34that time of year there would be ripped apart. So probably the El Nino is having something to do

02:39with it. But here's the big factor as well and this is going to be a problem all summer long.

02:43The water temperatures are extremely hot. They're warm. Hurricanes night need warm waters and in the

02:52part of the Caribbean and Atlantic that I looked at this morning water temperature is about four

02:57degrees warmer than normal and so these storms have quite a bit of fuel to feed themselves on.

03:03So those are the two things that are concerning for me about this particular storm and the rest

03:08of the season frankly. We've seen this hurricane flip-flop between a category three category four.

03:16Is that concerning to you? Because I know before in a past conversation you said

03:20sometimes in certain circumstances a category of a storm is somewhat irrelevant. So what about here?

03:27Well what's really important to note about Beryl in this particular cycle is it was a category four

03:32storm on Sunday and then overnight it went through something called an eyewall replacement cycle.

03:38Now that's a geeky meteorology term which means that the original eyewall of the storm is replaced

03:45by a larger eyewall. Now what typically happens in those eyewall replacement cycles is the storm

03:50might weaken just a little bit but the downside is it gets larger. The dangerous part of the storm

03:57broadens in size and so that's why right now as the storm's moving through the eastern Caribbean

04:02I'm really concerned about some of those islands. I'm all concerned about Jamaica

04:06which may be in the direct path or just in the dirty side of the eye as we call it.

04:12And as we speak here on July 1st morning storm has intensified back to category four and we

04:18typically see that after these eight eyewall replacement cycles. Now as it gets further into

04:23the western Caribbean I do expect the possible weakening and also as it moves across the Cancun

04:30parts of Mexico because it'll be over land for a while. But then when it gets back out of the

04:34water in the Gulf of Mexico we might see it strengthen again and that's where we have to

04:38keep an eye out because the models are not it's still far out for U.S. impact right now it's

04:43probably later this weekend but if there is an impact in the U.S. but right now there's model

04:49variants. Some models have it going into Mexico some have it coming in near the Mexico-U.S. border

04:55near say Corpus Christi or so and then others you know are still uncertain. So it's too early here

05:01on July 1st to have an exact call on where ultimately makes landfall whether in Mexico

05:05or in U.S. but it's certainly the U.S. Gulf Coast particularly Texas is in play

05:10and people need to be paying attention.

'Unprecedented': Why Meteorologists Are Shocked By Hurricane Beryl And What It Could Mean This Year

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