Tesla Stock EXPLODES | But...

Name: Tesla Stock EXPLODES | But...
Uploaded: 2024-07-02T22:34:48+00:00
Duration: 15 min 25 s
Channel: MacroTV

MacroTV

2 months ago

Tesla Stock EXPLODES | But...
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00:00Folks the Tesla stock explosion is happening. We've been talking about it for a while now the question though isn't

00:05What do we do to pat ourselves on the back the question is what does this mean going forward first?

00:11It's worth noting. I've been tweeting about this for a while at real meat Kevin on X

00:15I said on May 21st there appears to be a short squeeze that's starting to get that's getting started

00:21We'll hit $220 very soon

00:24I also tweeted that once we break the $200 psychological sell-order book will probably pop up to

00:31220 after that now of course we've got a deliveries catalyst tomorrow

00:36Honestly the catalyst doesn't even really matter whether whether the deliveries are somewhere between 420 which would be funny or somewhere between

00:43440 it doesn't really matter what matters is that the worst is behind Tesla you're going back to growth

00:49Yes, year-over-year declines, but quarter over quarter gains. We're going back to growth

00:53We're going back into that strong economy and folks are finally looking saying huh Tesla's pretty dang cheap compared to everything else

01:00That's so dang expensive, so you're starting to get upgrades like Wells Fargo

01:05Oh, maybe the worst is over still a little underweight

01:08But it's not as bad as used to be exactly the bad news is baked in

01:12It's the same thing that we saw on the volatility candles the volatility sticks were

01:17Extremely low on Tesla we made a video on it

01:20We talked about it the first of maybe like there was somewhere around

01:23It was the first week of June or like June 9th or something like that June 10th. We're like volatility is

01:28Ridiculously low historically Tesla has gained one and a half percent per day for the next two months

01:34Roughly roughly estimating here

01:37We could watch the video that I made on that either in the course member livestream or the later video

01:41We did in the public life

01:42But when volatility hits such a low Tesla goes up thereafter and you don't even need many catalysts to make it happen

01:49So I don't really care about deliveries tomorrow in fact if anything we kind of just pre priced in a lot of the deliveries news

01:57So it's entirely possible that no matter what delivery news we get tomorrow for Tesla the stock just ends up moving down

02:03I mean in order for us to actually move up after a 6% Tesla day

02:08You'd really have to beat all of the estimates if you beat all of the estimates tomorrow

02:12Do you come in with some like crazy like oh my gosh?

02:14It's gonna be you know 450 460 number hats off. Let's go Tesla. We're going to 300

02:20I don't think that's happening. I think the data and the analysts are probably

02:25You know the range will probably end up being right. I'm not saying the analysts are usually right

02:30I'm just saying the range will probably be right well of delivery somewhere between 415 and

02:35435,000 is my guess if I had to pick I'd go midpoint and go for 25

02:39And quite frankly 5k cars plus or minus in either direction even 10k cars in either direction makes a

02:45Lick of a difference for Tesla. It does not matter

02:47I actually kind of hope that they come in a little soft so I could buy myself some swing trade calls

02:54See their day trade calls where you could try to pull momentum like we did this morning on the market open live stream

02:59Where you're looking for a momentum, and then there are swing trade calls which are usually fundamental based

03:04So you do sort of 90 180 day swing trades

03:07I usually prefer 45 to 90 days for my swing trades and

03:11intra day for day trading

03:14so with that said for Tesla

03:18After we tax loss harvested in my fund which this is not an advertisement for my fund

03:23It's just so you know I'm putting my money where my mouth is after we tax loss harvested, and we went back in where we left

03:29We're like way up now and our allocation is pretty dang heavy in the thing which is awesome and again

03:36This isn't a pitch for that

03:37It's just simply to talk about it from a fundamental point of view not a traders point of view been very excited about Tesla

03:44So Tesla probably right now somewhere. I don't know exactly okay again. It's not a pitch for it

03:49Probably somewhere around 16 to 18 percent of an allocation that went down for to zero for a period of time which is great

03:56We avoided the mess from 170 to 140 tax loss harvested back in boom now. We're up. Okay great

04:03So the question now becomes where do we go from here? Well first?

04:08I like to look at the inverted yield curve. This is something that I started paying attention to just this morning

04:13I mean the inverted yield curve. I've been paying attention to it for a while, but there's something

04:16I noticed this morning this morning

04:18I noticed that the inverted yield curve the twos over the ten is starting to steepen substantially

04:23We've moved about 18 basis points in

04:27Really slow last like six days. That's a big move at the same time. We're seeing rates going up

04:34So you're getting this sort of bearish steepener on the yield curve, and we've had this happen before we had this happen a few times

04:42We had this happen

04:43I'll give you some dates here, and you can look it up yourself and compare it to the stocks that you like December 15th through January

04:4915th

04:50September of last year 20th through October 6th July 24th through October or August 6

04:56During those periods of the steepening the re-steepening of the yield curve what we actually ended up seeing was the Nasdaq was flat

05:05Roughly flat in other words even though you had this short-term steepening

05:10You didn't actually see that much pain in the market so shorter periods of steepening not that big of a deal

05:18It's when you get these extended periods of steepening that's when things get a little frustrating for example if you look all the way from

05:24the beginning

05:26it's probably yeah, let me see here if you look between July 3rd of last year and

05:32About October 31st that was painful that was basically Nasdaq correction territory, and you had a three-month period of

05:41steepening, but if you get these little

05:43Fluctuations of steepening that only last a week or two weeks

05:46It's usually not a big deal it only becomes a big deal if the steepening continues

05:52So this now gives us a path forward something that we can think about in terms of all right

05:57How do we set up our portfolio for investing?

06:00And I'm gonna draw this out to make this as simple as possible

06:04Because I understand we start hearing about yield curves and all this crazy stuff things can start getting a little bit confusing

06:09All right, so here's what we're gonna

06:11We're gonna write down on a piece of paper a game plan, and this is this is my take okay

06:17So this is not personalized financial advice. This is some dude on the internet making an opinion

06:24all right if

06:26the

06:27Yield curve steepening we're gonna call it remains under 14 days, so we got another week to go of this

06:35You're probably going to buy the dip on a diversified

06:41Set of ETFs that or you know or whatever you want you buy the dip on whatever you want again

06:46I'm not pitching anything in this video

06:48so buy the dip on whatever you want and

06:51Enjoy the fact that you're getting some you know relaxation here on some of the ones that have run really well

06:57Some of the names that I really like right now. I really like Apple Amazon and Tesla right now

07:03I don't love Nvidia as much, but I still have some Nvidia exposure, but Amazon Apple and Tesla

07:09I think are your your heavyweights

07:11I think Amazon is going to benefit substantially off of artificial intelligence by actually running a more efficient ship

07:17I think Apple is going to benefit off on-device AI and I think Tesla has the best and most real AI that exists

07:23Now you know sort of my tier two is I might consider something like Trade Desk or Palantir for software directional plays that could benefit

07:31But these are options that I think of now keep in mind

07:35Something that some have been asking about is hey, dude

07:38Is it still time to hedge Bitcoin as sort of a way to hedge the market?

07:43Well, I mentioned a few weeks ago that Bitcoin was likely to head to 58,000

07:48It went to 58,000 and it bounced right off of that and it actually is up pretty nicely in the last 24 hours here

07:55So I think in order for you to go bearish you really need this yield curve steepening yield curve

08:01Steepening to occur for more than 14 days if you get that yield curve steepening for more than 14 days

08:08That's what I'm gonna be looking at some form of a BTC short again or a BTC short proxy

08:15You know like something else that falls when Bitcoin falls like coinbase

08:18And that's also where I'm gonna be a little bit more interested in

08:22Maybe increasing cash position, right? Because over here you're by the div over here. You're increasing cash

08:29It just depends on how long this steepening process is going to last

08:34So that's something I'm very closely paying attention to now as far as Tesla

08:39Individually as long as we stay in this yield curve period over here. We're we're not steepening that much

08:45Maybe we start going back to the zigzags that we're used to

08:48Here's my projection for Tesla. So

08:51Let's draw it like this. Okay, so you've got

08:548 8 is over here. You got 7 1 right here now

08:59You do have Tesla earnings as well. A lot's gonna come down to those delivery figures, but Tesla earnings date

09:05I want to say it's like July 17th. Okay, there it is

09:08July 17

09:10Okay, so

09:12Right in this window right here

09:147-2 right in this window. You're still gonna have some level of fear and

09:21Uncertainty

09:22Mostly because people are going to be worried that even if we get good delivery numbers or if we have bad delivery numbers

09:27Everybody's gonna be wondering. Okay, what's margin margin margin margin margin? Okay

09:31My guess is that the time to go YOLO calls is right here

09:37YOLO calls

09:39Right between that earnings date. So really like the 718 which would be the next day and 8-8 now

09:46It's possible that after

09:48Deliveries tomorrow if you're like bullish Tesla, you kind of want a bad number tomorrow

09:53or like a number the markets gonna respond to bearishly because what I would consider as

09:59longer calls

10:01because

10:03We should be relatively clear with our catalyst

10:06I understand earnings are coming up

10:07But we should be able to take the numbers from the last earnings report

10:12Apply them to this one and assume that margins if anything have improved rather than dis improved

10:18Now in fairness, we don't know how much

10:22Those financing offers cost so that's a risk

10:26I do think that commodity prices have started to fall

10:30So I'm gonna fact-check myself on that since they're February high. Yeah, they definitely have

10:36Take a look at this right here. So you actually I'm sorry not February

10:40How you started rising in February you peaked out in May now

10:44It's a little unfortunate because that's the middle of q2 right here

10:47So you probably did have a little bit higher cost here

10:50Sadly, let me look at lithium prices quickly

10:53And if I look at these I'm gonna get an idea of how those battery margins have been

10:59So I'm gonna zoom out a bit here

11:03Okay, yeah, I mean if anything we've just gone down on on these you can see right here

11:09Let's zoom out a little bit. There we go. I'll hide myself for a moment. There we go

11:13So yeah capped out peaked out really at the end of q1

11:17It's sort of been down since then end of June who really had a nice fall in lithium pricing

11:22So hopefully we'll see some of this flow through on Tesla margins. It makes me bullish

11:27I think the bottom has already been priced in a long time ago

11:30Obviously the chart already shows us that but we've been talking about that as well

11:33So that's a little bit of a strategy that I that I look at again

11:37I think you buy the dip as long as we have a yield curve steepening for less than 14 days

11:42Let me give you the exact date again as to when we started we started steepening on the 25th today

11:49We're on the 7th

11:50So you're only about six days in once you get above 14 days

11:53You might start getting a little bit more fear pricing into the market and mind you that when?

11:59The yield curve steepens for less than 14 days. Yes, you get a little bit of a flattening in the queues

12:04We've already seen that here the flattening of the queues. It's exactly what's been going on

12:09What we just don't want is this longer-term dip that we had

12:14Over here see this sort of three-month dip over here in the queues

12:19This is what happens when you have a longer term yield curve inversion

12:23Or rather yield curve steepening we've been inverted in the yield curve, you know on the yield curve for quite a while now

12:28I'll tell you exactly when we inverted just so you have that data. We inverted back on

12:34No, wow, it's been two years July 1st 2022. It's been two years to the date

12:39So we are now celebrating two years of yield curve inversion pretty remarkable

12:44So again to bottom line my strategy going forward as long as the yield curve stays down

12:51My my long-term portfolio is by the dip Amazon Apple Tesla some trade desk Palantir

12:59For trading I'm gonna be interested in longer calls if we get some negativity tomorrow by the dip

13:06It's possible

13:08Depends how I want to play this

13:09It's possible that I'd open though you go puts and you sort of ride the wave down

13:14But that would be more of on a day trade, right?

13:17otherwise, I think some longer calls could be interesting some YOLO calls could be very interesting between the earnings date and

13:25Robo taxi day

13:26And that I do think you're gonna end up having a sell the news after the robo taxi day

13:32You almost always do but then again, you know, if everybody's expecting it, maybe it doesn't actually end up happening

13:39So, I don't know but those are my thoughts on the market right now on the bull bear scale

13:43I still put myself around six and a half on the bull bear scale

13:49Which is still six and a half maybe six point seven. Nothing's really changed over the last week

13:54so

13:56And and it really the whole political landscape

13:58I don't think is going to make much of a difference to the market for a hot minute

14:02It's gonna be a while

14:03I've still got you know, almost five months to go before the election which is crazy to think about actually we do

14:07We have five months in like six days wild

14:10So anyway, these are just some general thoughts on the market some strategies that I'm thinking and hopefully this is helpful to you

14:17None of this is obviously personalized financial advice. I hope you can go make money out there. Love y'all

14:21Thank you so much for watching. We'll see you in the next one. Goodbye, and good luck

14:25These things that you told us here. I feel like nobody else knows about this

14:28We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations, man

14:31You have done so much people love you people look up to you

14:35Financial analyst and youtuber meet Kevin always great to get your take

14:40Even though I'm a licensed financial advisor licensed real estate broker and becoming a stockbroker

14:43This video is not personalized advice for you

14:45It is not tax legal or otherwise personalized advice tailored to you

14:48This video provides generalized perspective information and commentary any third-party content

14:52I show shall not be deemed endorsed by me

14:55this video is not and shall never be deemed reasonably sufficient information for the purposes of evaluating a security or investment decision any links or

15:02Promoted products are either paid affiliations or products or services. We may benefit from I also personally operate an actively managed ETF

15:08I may personally hold or otherwise hold long or short positions in various securities and potentially including those mentioned in this video

15:14However, I have no relationship to any issuer other than house act nor am I presently acting as a market maker?

15:19Make sure if you're considering investing in house act to always read the PPM at house hack calm

Tesla Stock EXPLODES | But...

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