Why Scotland Are Out Of Euro 2024
Scotland are OUT of Euro 2024 after late heartbreak against Hungary. Whether it was a lack of ambition from Steve Clarke, or a lack of quality from his players, it's an enormous missed opportunity for this Scotland side and one that will feel all too familiar for their fans. Adam Clery picks through the bones of both the result and the campaign, to work out exactly where it went wrong.
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00:00Right, hello everybody, Adam Cleary from 442, and Scotland are out of the Euros at the earliest
00:10possible opportunity.
00:11While we can stand here and talk about penalties not being given, and I probably will at some
00:15point, Scotland nonetheless go out bottom of their group, 1 point, 2 goals, having offered
00:20virtually nothing, but the thing is, it wasn't supposed to be like this.
00:25Like, this Scotland team honestly had enough about it that it really could have done something
00:31in this tournament.
00:32I mean, for Christ's sake, I'm the man who wrote this, and I meant every single word
00:38of that headline, so why did that not happen?
00:42Well...
00:43So we'll start here with the XI that started the Hungry Game, and after Steve Clarke shifted
00:49it ever so slightly in how the front three were organised in the Switzerland game, he
00:53kind of went back to Scotland's tried and tested system that made them look so good
00:57in qualifying.
00:58But, and I mean, you probably watched the game, Scotland didn't just fail to win that
01:03must-win game, they offered virtually nothing in the final third of the pitch.
01:08One shot on target in the whole match, and it falls to Grant Hanley.
01:11But the thing is, this XI and this system theoretically was the right move by Steve
01:18Clarke, because the Scotland system thrives on sitting deep, being tight, winning the
01:22ball in good areas, then getting up the pitch really quickly.
01:26And against a Hungary team that needed to win as well, the thinking was obviously, well,
01:30they're going to come on to us, so it'll leave that space.
01:33But as became painfully clear as that first half wore on, when Scotland had all of these
01:37passes and all of this possession and nothing to show for it at the other end, was that
01:41Hungary were very happy to sit deep and try and get them on the counter at the same time,
01:46and Scotland, with this system, cannot deal with that.
01:50And just to show you how ineffective Scotland are against an opposition that aren't going
01:54to give them space, this is the team's entire pass map from that match before it opened
02:00up in the final 10 minutes, and they successfully made two passes, two passes into the box.
02:08One of them is just this hopeful cross into the box from John McGinn, which only goes
02:11down as a completed pass, because it hit a Scotland head before nothing came of it.
02:16And the other one is that penalty they should have had.
02:19Scott McTominay plays in, I think it was Stuart Armstrong, and that's the only other
02:23time they got in.
02:24And there's a sort of really cruel irony to them not getting that penalty, because
02:28if they do and they score and they go on to win, which they very easily could have done,
02:32I think all day, that's a penalty, then this Scotland team sat back, they were compact,
02:38they kept the ball, they kept Hungary out, and then when their one chance came, when
02:41they made that one opportunity at the end, they then take it, win the game, advance out
02:46of the group, and you would probably say that's an expertly executed tactical master
02:51plan.
02:52And if you think that sounds like I'm being incredibly generous to what was an otherwise
02:55like negative nothing performance, then that's kind of what this Scotland team are.
03:00We did a massive preview video for them before the tournament, where we basically pointed
03:04out that this is not a team that creates a lot of chances, but a team that is very deadly
03:08with the chances they do create.
03:10And actually, apologies for just recycling footage from an old video here, but this is
03:14what we said about them before the tournament.
03:18And the way of looking at this system, right, is it doesn't make Scotland some free-flowing
03:22powerhouse.
03:23It doesn't give them loads of chances, right?
03:25But the movement it allows them to have, the way they slip free of their markers, it means
03:29that when the chances do arrive, they're usually very good chances.
03:34In fact, I've got an absolutely extraordinary stat for you about all of this, all right?
03:38Okay, so like take all the teams that were in European Championship qualifying, right,
03:43all like a hundred and whatever of them, right, of all of those that actually qualified
03:48that got to the tournament, Scotland had both the fewest number of shots and the fewest
03:54number of shots on target.
03:55Now you might think, oh, that's a terrible stat, they're the least attacking team in
03:59the whole tournament.
04:00That's really bad news, Adam, like why would you, why would you tell us that?
04:04That is one way to read that data, but there is another stat that sort of forms a second
04:09part of this, right?
04:10And that is that they have the highest, the best goals per shot and goals per shot on
04:16target numbers.
04:17So on the one hand, they are the least attacking side at the Euros, but on the other hand,
04:22they're the most lethal attacking side.
04:25You see, so as bad as they were, that opening 60, 70, 80 minutes of that match shouldn't
04:31really have come as a surprise to anybody because that is what this Scotland team is.
04:36That is how Steve Clarke has got them set up.
04:38That was their whole identity through qualifying, and if they were going to get anywhere in
04:42the tournament, they needed to keep that going here.
04:45But should we just have a really quick look at how those same graphs and numbers from
04:49qualifying translated to the tournament itself?
04:52You're not going to want to, but I'm going to show you anyway.
04:55So just like in qualifying, where of all the teams that made it to the tournament, Scotland
04:59were absolute rock bottom for their total number of shots and total number of shots
05:02on target.
05:03So in the tournament itself, on a per 90 minute basis, Scotland were only getting six attempts
05:10on goal per match and only one shot on target.
05:14But unlike in qualifying, where they were the top chance converters getting a goal every
05:190.18 shots, so basically scoring every five times they get an effort, in the tournament
05:26that drops down to 0.06.
05:30Basically the way they were playing, they would need about 20 shots to get a goal and
05:34that is way too steep a drop off at this level.
05:38Just as a...
05:39Oh God.
05:40Ketch, how do you kill a fly?
05:43Just as a total aside there, I didn't notice that until I pulled the graph up right there.
05:47Did you see who was currently second bottom in the tournament for shots per 90 minutes?
05:53That's probably funny, isn't it?
05:55So for all you're going to hear over the next couple of weeks stuff about negative tactics
05:59and not going for it and not being ambitious enough, that's not really the story of Scotland's
06:04tournament.
06:05Like here we have a team that specializes in not making a lot of chances, but making
06:10a few quality ones, got into the really big games and just did not have that quality.
06:16And it's probably not fair to pick out specific examples of this, but that's just sort of
06:20the reality of it.
06:21Like there were a couple of times in that game where Scotland found themselves in those
06:25kind of positions where they normally make these chances happen.
06:28And for whatever reason, that final ball just wasn't there.
06:32There's two in particular that just are right at the top of my head.
06:34John McGinn makes a really industrious, classic John McGinn run.
06:38He skips past one or two challenges, he gets it to the box and in qualifying, you would
06:43just expect this ball to come right across to Scott McTominay and he would get that goal.
06:47But for whatever reason, he gets it at the position this time and the movement's just
06:51not as good.
06:52He doesn't find himself in as much space.
06:54The pass isn't quite right and nothing comes of it.
06:57That fly is doing my head in.
06:59But the biggest one, I think by a mile, comes very, very near the end of the game.
07:03There's a flurry of chances.
07:04It actually ends up with Grant Hanley having their best chance of the game.
07:08And if we just pause it right here, I think truly and honestly in qualifying, there's
07:14a bit of calmness, there's a bit more composure.
07:17This ball arrives at the back post here and Scotland knock that in.
07:211-0 and go and win the game.
07:24But for some reason, the decision-making in this moment with the pressure and the fans
07:28and the expectation, whatever you want to put it down to, he just makes the wrong choice.
07:32He shoots from an impossible angle.
07:35Chance goes.
07:36And this might also sound incredibly harsh, but the reason for that sort of poor decision-making,
07:40that lack of quality in the final third, is the same reason for this perceived negative
07:46setup.
07:47Like Steve Clarke has Scotland set up in this way to sort of mask the overall technical
07:53level they've currently got available.
07:55If we look at the 11 Scotland finished that game with, and they actually sort of went
07:58to more of a 4-2-3-1 after they took Andy Robertson off.
08:02Not trying to have a pop at any of these players individually, but just look across this 11.
08:07Look at the names involved.
08:08Who do you really think is going to be the difference maker there?
08:11Who's adding more quality off the bench than the player they're replacing?
08:15They just don't have those sorts of options.
08:18Players who work hard, certainly players who'll give you absolutely everything, but when you're
08:23trying to break down a really resolute defence at an international tournament, who's jumping
08:29out at you?
08:30As well as all the nerdy stuff about the stats and the numbers and how they sort of set up,
08:34that was the other major thing we said in that preview.
08:37Once you start taking away players from that Scotland starting 11, the quality available
08:42just is not there to go and really trouble anybody.
08:46Like you have to be able to make changes from the bench in a tournament.
08:50You have to be able to use your squad beyond the starting 11, whether it's because of fitness
08:54or injuries or just game state, trying something different, anything like that.
08:59Scotland finding themselves in that desperate position, nil-nil, they need to get that goal.
09:04These are the players they have available to do that.
09:07There's no Hickey or Tierney because of injury.
09:09Robertson's come off because he was having an ineffective game.
09:12John McGinn and Billy Gilmore, they're both not there.
09:15And for everything I've said so far, there is still a positive angle to this video because
09:20for all we're looking at these players and going, it's no wonder they couldn't compete
09:23at an international level, it was nil-nil right up until the hundredth minute.
09:29If they get the penalty that they almost certainly should have got, this 11 gets them out of that group.
09:35Which is why I'm kind of hesitant to sort of lay too much of the blame at the feet of
09:39Steve Clarke because you show me any manager that has to go into the last sort of 10, 15
09:44minutes of a crunch must-win game at the European Championships with these players
09:49at his disposal and has it go that far to the end to get that close to doing it.
09:55I don't, I don't really know what else you'd do.
09:58And if you've watched these videos before, you know I'd normally be showing you loads
10:01of other things that happened in this match, I'd sort of give you examples of all the stuff
10:05I'm talking about, but I mean you probably watched it, there wasn't really anything else.
10:10Hungry sitting back and not giving Scotland the space just nullified everything.
10:15Like I said before about Andy Robertson, who's arguably, in my opinion, Scotland's best player,
10:21their most effective weapon on the counter-attack, this is his heat map from the game.
10:26Like it's pretty unusual for him because it more or less just stops bang on the halfway line,
10:30he wasn't really able to offer any kind of threat down the left-hand side.
10:34And this wasn't purely because Hungry was sitting deep, because you still want the width
10:38from the full-backs, they're still expected to do that.
10:40Like I'll show you Ralston's heat map, he was still able to do that on the right-hand side.
10:44It was more that Hungry had targeted Robertson, they'd locked that side down,
10:49and taking away that weapon completely nullified their threat on that flank.
10:53And again, I hate to keep coming back to this, but they shut down one side, left more space on the other,
10:58and Ralston, who I actually thought had a really, really good game, was able to be the threat out wide.
11:03But this is his pass map, using that opportunity, gets the ball into the box only three times,
11:09and most of his passes in a dangerous area are just backwards.
11:13And then after Andy Robertson, you'd probably say Scott McTominay's their other major goal threat.
11:18He got them all those goals in qualifying.
11:21Scotland were really cleverly trying to use Shea Adams to move out to the left,
11:24to drag a defender, to give McTominay that space to burst into the middle off the opposite flank.
11:30But let's look at his heat map from that match.
11:32Look how few times, I've knocked him over, look how few times he was able to get on the ball
11:38in the space that had been created for him.
11:40Hungary denied Scotland the space they wanted to play in,
11:43and they specifically targeted a handful of their best players.
11:46And once you take away that key part of the system and those key individuals, they offered nothing.
11:52And I'll show you Billy Gilmore's pass map as well.
11:55Like, he's so important for getting in front of those defenders, taking the ball off them, moving it upfield.
11:59He was forced to play so much further forward to try and do anything.
12:02But you can see, even here, when he does get on the ball in a dangerous area,
12:07where's the incision, where's the balls into the box, where's the guys running on the overlap?
12:11Nothing was happening.
12:12This is how television works.
12:14Kind of, yeah.
12:17It's Matthew.
12:18Everyone say hello Matthew in the comments.
12:21And I know it's not all about numbers and statistics and stuff,
12:23but I just wanted to show you this one thing,
12:26because I think it might be the most damning sort of statistical element in the whole thing, right?
12:30Scotland are going to go out of this tournament having completed 3.3 passes
12:35into the penalty area per game, every game.
12:39Like, you are not going to do anything if that's as much box threat as you're offering.
12:45And that's it.
12:46If you can't play the system the way you need to play your system,
12:49and you can't get your best players into the game,
12:51and when you do, you can't make all the things happen that you're supposed to be able to make happen,
12:56you simply won't score goals.
12:58And if you can't score goals, you get eliminated from these tournaments.
13:03And that's it.
13:05It's not about negativity or mentality or any of this other stuff that's being levelled at Steve Clarke.
13:11It's just, he has this Scotland team set up in a particular way for very good reasons,
13:16and over the three games they've played at the tournament, that particular way didn't work.
13:21And I mean, I might as well throw this as well, because it's analysis, isn't it?
13:25If you want any further evidence that Hungary were doing the exact same thing as Scotland,
13:29waiting for their opponent to open up so they could exploit the space,
13:33think about what their two best chances were.
13:35They were, after Andy Robertson went off,
13:38attacking this space that was being left open for the first time in the entire match.
13:43They hit the post the first time, and then for the second one,
13:45the cutback is just of the kind of quality that Scotland normally have when they're in this position,
13:52and that's how they finished.
13:53Scotland were ultimately eliminated,
13:56I'm going to kill this fly,
13:57they were ultimately eliminated by conceding the exact kind of goal
14:01they've become famous for scoring.
14:04So there you are, that's the autopsy, that's why it all went wrong.
14:07Scotland fans, if you have been able to bring yourself to watch this entire video,
14:11then first of all, fair f***s,
14:13but second, please let us know what your read of the whole tournament was in the comments.
14:18Is it actually that they should have been a bit more aggressive?
14:20Should they have played a back four?
14:21Should they have made the substitutions earlier?
14:23What would you have done differently?
14:24Or was there just nothing you can do?
14:27Were they just playing the cards they had, were dealt, whatever the expression is.
14:30Now I can't with a straight face sit here and tell you that if you are a Scotland fan,
14:33there's going to be loads more Scotland content over the course of the Euros,
14:36because that's not how being eliminated works,
14:38but there's going to be loads of cool stuff some other time I presume,
14:42so please do hit the subscribe button.
14:44If you have enjoyed what you've watched of us covering Scotland so far,
14:47it won't be the last thing we ever do,
14:48and it does really help us grow the channel,
14:50and we're having a nice big subscribers thing across the Euros,
14:53so that would be a silver lining for me, if not for you.
14:57Meanwhile, you can get me across all the social medias at AdamClearyCLE.
15:01I am going to kill that.
15:02Meanwhile, you can get me across all the social medias at AdamClearyCLERY,
15:07where I will of course be posting an update later on whether or not I killed that flyer,
15:11or just flew out the window, so please do go grab me there.
15:13It's on absolutely everything.
15:15My 442 socials are in the corner of the video.
15:17The Euros preview edition of the bag, which is still on sale,
15:20because there's still lots of nice fun stuff to talk about.
15:22There'll be a new one soon, don't worry about that.
15:24All good retailers, bad ones too.
15:26I'm spiraling here because I'm really, really gutted, but that's it.
15:33Bye, everyone.
15:34See you at the World Cup.