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00:00Union President William Ruto has scrapped planned tax hikes,
00:04bowing to pressure from protesters who'd stormed Parliament
00:07and launched demonstrations across the country.
00:10It came a day after clashes between police and protesters
00:13that left at least 23 people dead and scores wounded, according to medics.
00:18Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken thanked Ruto
00:22for taking steps to reduce tension and underscored the importance
00:26of security forces demonstrating restraint.
00:30Well, for more, we can bring in Dr Alex Vines,
00:33head of the Africa program at Chatham House,
00:36the Chatham House think tank in London.
00:38Thank you for speaking to us on France 24.
00:42Are you as surprised by the president's move then,
00:45or do you see this as something he believed to be a logical step?
00:50Look, it's a logical step.
00:51Absolutely.
00:54He had no other option.
00:55He did need to compromise.
00:57And remember that he himself has branded himself as a child of the masses,
01:06that he was a hustler and has come good as president of Kenya.
01:11So he's deeply shocked by what is a popular movement against him.
01:15And so by scrapping the bill, he's hoping to reduce tensions.
01:19We'll have to see now whether the demonstrations continue.
01:23Kenya has seen protests in the past,
01:26but this movement has notably seen people bridge tribal and other divisions
01:33to keep this finance bill from becoming law,
01:35and not to mention the deaths that have been denounced by medics.
01:39Do you think that this movement stands out compared to others?
01:44This movement does stand out compared with others,
01:47because if you ask me who the name of the leaders are,
01:50I haven't got any idea at all.
01:53These are people using social media platforms they've organized across Kenya
02:01and caught the government of Kenya and President Ruto completely by surprise.
02:04I mean, last week, their narrative was very hard.
02:07They said that this was also linked with criminal groups.
02:10And now they've had to compromise.
02:11The bill has been withdrawn, and Mr. Ruto is now talking about dialogue.
02:18But it's going to be interesting to see who he dialogues with.
02:21This, I think, is a new phenomena,
02:23but it's also reflective of just how well-connected Kenyans are,
02:27many of them, onto social media platforms.
02:30They are more advanced than many other countries in Africa,
02:32including the one I'm in right at the moment, Mozambique.
02:36Right. Well, I mean, what dialogue then could we see?
02:39Because we're hearing from some demonstrators who've said on social media
02:42that they're going to continue these protests despite the withdrawal.
02:47How far do you think this will go?
02:51Well, the plan on their website and through social media last week
02:55was to have the siege of Parliament, which happened, and a burning of it.
03:01And that's where the unfortunate 23 dead is probably going to be higher than that.
03:06And the scores of injured that you've mentioned, too, occurred.
03:10And today, on that program from last week,
03:12is meant to be a siege of the statehouse, the presidential palace.
03:18We'll see whether that happens.
03:19I have doubts because I think security will be very tight.
03:23But there's still a significant number of people
03:27calling for President Ruto to resign.
03:30That's not going to happen.
03:32And I do think the withdrawal of the bill yesterday will help to reduce tensions.
03:39The reality, though, of course, is that Kenya is going to have to find austerity elsewhere.
03:44It is very indebted.
03:45Money is tight.
03:47And so putting up taxes was one way the government was going to do it.
03:50It's going to have to find another way now.
03:52Well, yeah, I was just going to ask you, I mean, you're not an economist,
03:56but this decision still leaves the president caught between
04:00the citizens' demands and those of lenders like the IMF.
04:05How can Kenya pull itself out of debt and get its fiscal situation back on track?
04:13So Kenya is strategic and important, including for the Bretton Woods Institution.
04:19So they have tried to work out a pathway that would allow Kenya to avoid calling
04:25to go into what is called the Common Framework,
04:28which countries like Ghana and Chad and Zambia have done.
04:34And the problem of doing that is it doesn't allow you to borrow more money from private markets.
04:39That's one of the things the Kenyans did on that option.
04:43So we'll see.
04:44But President Ruto didn't create this problem.
04:46I will defend him on this.
04:48He's inherited this from his predecessor, President Uhuru Kenyatta,
04:53and Uhuru Kenyatta's predecessor, because there's been very profligate
05:00borrowing for large infrastructure projects and now the debtors are asking for their money.
05:07So this is the inheritance that Ruto has taken over as president of Kenya.
05:12All right.
05:13Dr Alex Vines from Chatham House, thank you very much for your analysis.