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00:00A full Friday slate around Major League Baseball, a great weekend in the bigs ahead.
00:09And my first question is who did Donny right side have to pay off to have the Phillies
00:14in the Orioles game with the graphic have the title World Series preview.
00:20But maybe they're not all that wrong.
00:2346 wins for the Phil second most in MLB 45 on the other side for the O's third most in
00:31Major League Baseball.
00:32That means this weekend inside Camden Yards.
00:35It's the second best record in MLB, Philadelphia, third best record in Major League Baseball,
00:41Baltimore.
00:42Finally, we're going to show the graphic.
00:44There is how many times a guy got a call for it to get it on the screen.
00:50The O's a favorite in game number one of this weekend set over under seven and a half.
00:56Look at the smart move predictions right there.
00:5955% for the Phillies to win.
01:01Let's see if that plays out on the field.
01:03Now also weather conditions about 80 degrees.
01:06That's great.
01:07Wind blowing in slightly at six miles per hour, but there is some chances for thunderstorms
01:10in the area, something to keep an eye on.
01:12But if we're taking a look at a true pitching matchup tonight, you got a really good one.
01:15If we date this back to what you say, May 1st, so about six weeks here on the diamond
01:19and there are 28 pitchers available today on the card that at least 10 innings pitched
01:24over those past six weeks.
01:26If we look at the numbers, Kyle Braddish's XFIT minus is a 68.
01:29That's number three on the card.
01:30Ranger Suarez, a 77.
01:33That's number six on the card.
01:34So these pitchers should be informed tonight.
01:36Now, granted, we also take a look last night at a game between the Phillies and the Red
01:39Sox, Ben, that we had two very good pitchers on the mound, but the hot temperatures and
01:44the wind, they took control and easily went over that number.
01:47We'll see if that changes.
01:48The Phillies also tonight expect Alec Boehm to be back in the lineup and not have Bryson
01:51Stott in the cleanup role.
01:53That should help.
01:54But Braddish, over the past 30 days here, 101 batters face, Ben, if we take a look at
01:57the non-analytical approach and what happened on the field, ISO numbers, 078, weighted on
02:02base percentage, 242.
02:03That's phenomenal.
02:04And then if we take a look here at Ranger Suarez that we've known has been a great pitcher
02:07all season long, his last 30 days, 124 ISO, 279 weighted on base percentage.
02:12The pitchers should win out in this game.
02:15I just don't like the way the Phillies are playing.
02:16So to be honest, even though Suarez is a great pitcher, I don't like this Philadelphia Phillies
02:20lineup.
02:21I trust the Orioles line up much, much more tonight.
02:25Seven and a half, that total Baltimore, a favorite, yes, the O's did lose yesterday
02:29when looking for the sweep and snapping their six game win streak against Atlanta.
02:34But the Orioles have still won 16 of their last 21 games.
02:40We're starting to see, Donnie, if Kansas City is for real.
02:44The last week has been difficult.
02:46Short two game midweek set last week against the Cleveland Guardians, the top team in the
02:51AL Central.
02:52Then hosted the Seattle Mariners, the top team in the AL West.
02:55They didn't win that series, but dropped the finale.
02:58Lost the first three games against the top team in the American League East, the New
03:02York Yankees, but did walk it off coming from behind in the ninth inning yesterday to avoid
03:07the four game sweep against the Yanks.
03:10Now only to turn things around with zero rest and head out west to the top team in
03:16the National League West, that's the LA Dodgers.
03:18Tonight at the Ravine, a rare interleague matchup, the Dodgers minus 162, hosting the
03:24Kansas City Royals.
03:25Total at eight.
03:27What happens tonight in Los Angeles?
03:30Nice night, 72 degrees, typical for Los Angeles.
03:33You take a look at the lineup tonight, going up against a left handed pitcher for the Dodgers
03:36over the past month.
03:37They actually have six guys with weighted on base percentages in the plus territory.
03:41Freeman, Smith, Hernandez, Pajes, Rojas, and Kike Hernandez.
03:45Here's the issue.
03:46Yesterday got a great start of Marsh on the mound for Kansas City.
03:49We're looking for a repeat performance night for Reagans.
03:51If we take a look again, since May the 1st, Reagans on the card today out of 28 pitchers.
03:56He's number four at a 70 X-fifth minus, which is sensational.
03:59And also when you're taking a look at what he struggles with, right handed batters for
04:03a lefty typically is that struggle point.
04:06That's not the case.
04:07He struggles more with left handed batters than he does with righties, particularly over
04:10the past 30 days.
04:11And in order to take advantage of that, maybe the best left handed batter in the lot of
04:15you would figure would be Shohei Otani.
04:17That's not the case here.
04:18A zero ISO power number through his last 29 at bats against lefties for Otani is quite
04:22surprising.
04:23But if you take a look at Freddie Freeman's last 30 at bats, he's got a 308 ISO power
04:27number and a weighted on base percentage of 407.
04:29So that might be a little bit of luck that you can get down.
04:32Flip it over to the other side.
04:33Gavin Stone.
04:34You say, oh, look at that.
04:35Maybe the Dodgers don't have the advantage on the mound.
04:37Gavin Stone since May 1st year.
04:38How about this?
04:39An 88 X5 minus number with great splits between lefties and righties, 97 at bats over the
04:43past month, a 283 weighted on base percentage in an 098 ISO power number.
04:49So for my money in this game, I love the offensive guys.
04:52They just don't match up against these pitchers.
04:54We'll go under each other's ravine tonight.
04:58Now we go to Atlanta, the Braves greater than a two dollar favorite.
05:01They snapped a five game skid in that finale yesterday in Baltimore, Atlanta, back home
05:07in the ATL.
05:08Part of the reason they're greater than a two dollar favorite now is because of Chris
05:11Sale, who has been electric at the top of that staff.
05:14Now for Atlanta, is the price justified, though, in the opener of their weekend series against
05:20the Rays?
05:21That's a tough price to play.
05:22It really is, because the focus is always now not really going to be on Atlanta starting
05:25pitching staff, which has been good.
05:27How many runs can they get as a lineup?
05:29But if we're being honest with ourselves, Ben, again, 28 pitchers on the card today,
05:33minimum of 10 innings pitched since May 1st.
05:35You know who's the best by a wide margin on this card?
05:37It's Chris Sale.
05:38Keep this in mind.
05:39When I use those analytical numbers of X-fit minus, that 100 is the benchmark number.
05:44He's at a 52.
05:45That is absolutely outstanding, and rightfully so.
05:48You take a look at those analytics and mesh them with what's going on in the field, 101
05:51batters over the past month he's faced, a 134 iso, a 273 weighted on base percentage,
05:56walk percentage of only 3%, and a strikeout percentage of close to 31%.
06:01He's been phenomenal.
06:02As we know, Tampa Bay certainly doesn't prevent something from happening in the sale, because
06:07that lineup stinks overall, particularly against left-handed batters.
06:11Flip it over to Atlanta.
06:12Zach Littell, very, very good here, by the way, against right-handed batters.
06:16But lefties, he's susceptible.
06:18The only issue is you're going to get some lefties in the lineup, but they have been
06:21hitting right-handed batters.
06:22Why?
06:23Because Atlanta really hasn't been hitting anybody at this point.
06:25If you are going to take a look at a number, maybe it's run line first five innings for
06:30Atlanta, because I do believe they have the better pitcher on the mound who's been filthy
06:33for the past month and a half.
06:34But outside of that, I don't like too much here.
06:35The pricing is just a little bit off for me, Ben.
06:37Eight and a half, the Braves, one of three teams in MLB that have played 60% or more
06:43of their games to an under.
06:46That includes the Astros.
06:47Where is the fork?
06:48It's going to be a tough weekend to get things started, even at home at H-Town against Tarek
06:53Skubal on the other side for Detroit, 8-1 this year with a 1-9-2 ERA and a virtual pick-em.
07:00Yeah, by the way, a much maligned Hunter Brown from early in the season.
07:03He's really turned it around.
07:05And Tarek Skubal, a 60-exit minus since May 1st.
07:08I hate to do it to us again.
07:10Probably looking for an under in this game as well, Ben.
07:13Total seven, but hard to fault you, DRS, with the treads for the Astros and Skubal on the
07:18other side.
07:19More around MLB up next.
07:21A rivalry renewed to start off this weekend in MLB tonight in Boston.
07:27We go to Fenway Pack, where we have the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox facing
07:32off a slightly earlier first pitch start, 6.30 p.m. Eastern time on this Friday.
07:38It's a day that we love here on the early line in the Pantheon Sportsbook, but it's
07:44only known as one thing.
07:46Luis Gil on the mound for the New York Yankees.
07:50Minus 156, the price in favor of the pinstripes, even on the road in Fenway.
07:55The runner now stands at 9.5.
07:58What do you like in the opener between these two longstanding rivals?
08:02By the way, I do think this is interesting, and you're right, a little bit earlier start.
08:05Probably why?
08:07Because the NBA Finals are taking place, and also, these are when the Yankees are in town.
08:10It's a big deal.
08:11Like, I honestly think they probably on every single board at the stadium should just be
08:14running the basketball game if this baseball game does run late, but granted, the way baseball
08:19gets over, used to be on Sunday night baseball, the Red Sox versus the Yankees would take
08:24like seven hours.
08:25That's no longer the case, so you might be out of there by the time the game even starts
08:28to get the people watching, but this game itself, you're looking at Brian Bayo on the
08:32mound tonight.
08:33Does struggle with left-handed batters.
08:34You know there's a lefty in that lineup that is a heat-seeking missile, and that's Juan
08:37Soto.
08:38Should be on your cards.
08:3985 at bats against right-handed pitching over the past month.
08:42382 iso weighted on base percentage, 469.
08:45You know the rest of the characters.
08:46You're expecting Volpe, Soto, Judge, Radugo, and Stanton to do some damage along with Glaber,
08:50Torres, and they probably will, but on the other side, as we talked about, Luis Gil is
08:54on the mound.
08:55He's been pretty filthy for this entirety of the Major League Baseball season.
08:58If I'm looking at this number since May 1st, it's an 84 X-minus, which is very good.
09:03Now there are a couple really good batters on this team for Boston, particularly at home.
09:07Duran's been good.
09:08Hamilton's been good.
09:09Devers has been good.
09:10Even Emmanuel Valdez.
09:11Guys that may be not top of your name when you say, ooh, who's a really good player in
09:14Major League Baseball?
09:15But I'm still going to leave it up here to the Yankees.
09:17I think they have the better pitcher on the mound today, and a lineup that can do damage.
09:21Temperatures here, not as hot as they were yesterday in Boston.
09:2374 degrees with some rain in the forecast, but we should get some runs from the Yankees
09:27side.
09:28I think the Yankees handle their business here.
09:30The Yanks did get the win on Sunday night baseball in the Heels' last start against
09:34the Dodgers, 6-4.
09:36He'll gave up three earned, but he is still 8-1 this year with a 2-0-4 ERA.
09:41That's top five in all of MLB.
09:43A divisional duel, a rivalry of its own today in Chicago.
09:49Dave Baseball on a Friday afternoon in the summer months in Wrigley.
09:54That's a good time.
09:55Minus 122 for the Cubbies, who could use some good vibes, DRS.
09:59Now, just 33-36 this year, total 7-1-1.
10:03What happens today inside the friendly confines?
10:06Yeah, there's some home cooking as they get back to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.
10:10But you see that number 8 there for the total?
10:12You know what that means.
10:13Wind's not blowing out, it's blowing in at double digits from center field.
10:16But not all that bad.
10:17It's 11 miles an hour, 76 degrees.
10:19If we take a look at that Chicago Cubs lineup, the way to get after Kyle Gibson as a right-handed pitcher,
10:24he's got very good statistics on the season against right-handed batters.
10:27But that does change from a lefty perspective.
10:29Over the entire year, 169 lefties he's faced, a .234 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of .355.
10:36That actually increases over the past 30 days up to a .288 ISO power number and a weighted-on-base percentage of .438.
10:43So there's your trigger point here for the Cubs.
10:45Talkman leads off as a lefty.
10:47Not great numbers here, but then you start to get into Cody Bellinger.
10:50.172 ISO, .331 weighted-on-base percentage, about average, over his last 69 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
10:56But then also maybe the best batter in the lineup, which sat out yesterday, Ian Happ, who's a switch hitter,
11:00who will bat from the left-hand side today.
11:02Get this, 64 at-bats over the past month, .357 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of .353.
11:09So if we're looking from a Chicago end of it, that's probably the best of it there.
11:12Jordan Wicks on the mound for the Cubs.
11:14Not telling him, but some of those right-handed batters like Goldschmidt and Arenado and Wynn.
11:19By the way, Mason Wynn, the leadoff batter for the St. Louis Cardinals, a guy to keep an eye on here.
11:23He's been scorching hot over the past month.
11:25So I do think, let's buck the trend here.
11:27Let's go runs, even with the wind blowing in at Wrigley.
11:30I think they can get nine or more.
11:31Okay.
11:32I like that, DRS.
11:33The Cubs, by the way, have dropped 14 of their last 20 games, now three games below .500.
11:40The Cardinals, just about a month ago, were nine games below .500.
11:45They've won 18 and 10 since May 12th.
11:49Now one win away, if they can pull the slight upset today in Wrigley of getting back to an even .500.
11:56California Clash Night up by the Bay in San Francisco.
11:59The Giants, a home favorite against the Angels.
12:02What do you like?
12:04Yeah, we've got great numbers across the board.
12:05It is a true pitcher's ballpark, as we understand that.
12:08But that eight is going to be in trouble tonight.
12:10Since May 1st, again, 28 pitchers on the card today.
12:13We got a pitcher in Tyler Anderson for the Angels, who is number 28.
12:16Spencer Howard for the San Francisco Giants.
12:19He's number 26.
12:20So two bad pitchers in these lineups really look good going up against them.
12:24If we're just taking a look quickly at San Francisco, Ramos, 667 ISO.
12:28Chapman, 273.
12:29Soler, 217.
12:31Estrada, 227.
12:32Schmidt, 600, going up against lefties over the past month.
12:35Take the over, and you won't be disappointed.