How Bad Will Hurricane Season Be This Summer?: AccuWeather Expert Weighs In

6 months ago

On "Forbes Newsroom," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Meteorologist Alex DeSilva discussed Hurricane Season after Florida got hit by epic rainfall.

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Transcript

00:00The name storm, so that's where you start with the A and then go down the alphabet.

00:04So we haven't even given an A name to any storm yet this season.

00:08No, not yet.

00:10And again, that would be the National Hurricane Center that would officially give the designation.

00:15Like I said, we're designating it here at AccuWeather as a tropical rainstorm, but that

00:20does not have a name attached to it.

00:21The National Hurricane Center is the official kind of naming agency that will officially

00:27attach a name to the system.

00:29And like you said, yeah, it will go A to Z.

00:32There are a few letters that don't have names, like Q, there's no Q name.

00:38So there's a few letters in there that don't actually have names, but most of the letters

00:42are available to be used.

00:45Now you are AccuWeather's lead hurricane forecaster, so to ask you the question that's on everyone's

00:49mind, how bad will hurricane season be this summer?

00:54Can you tell us?

00:55Yeah, it looks like it's going to be pretty busy for the whole summer.

00:59Like I said, we've had a slow start or not much action early in the season, but I am

01:03very concerned that as we get into the heart of the season, which is kind of the back half

01:07of August, September, and kind of into October, that's kind of the most active period in the

01:14Atlantic Basin, I'm really concerned that things could ramp up really quickly, especially

01:19in the month of August here.

01:20We're dealing with very warm sea surface temperatures.

01:23In fact, if you take an average of the entirety of the Atlantic Basin, you know, we've never

01:29seen sea surface temperatures this warm.

01:312023 was the warmest average sea surface temperatures that we've seen across the Atlantic Basin.

01:37And right now, 2024, we're outpacing 2023 by just a little, little bit.

01:43So if we stay on that pace, we could set another record for the warmest ocean temperatures

01:49on record in the Atlantic by the time we get to the heart of the season.

01:52And I will say, it's not only the sea surface temperatures that we're concerned about, it's

01:57the temperatures with depth.

01:58So it's not only right at the surface, you also have to look down into the ocean to really

02:05get a good picture.

02:06Now, I was looking at some data earlier, and there's areas near Jamaica, you know, Western

02:11Caribbean, that if you take the 80-degree, you know, water temperature line, essentially,

02:18it extends down 300 to 400 feet below the surface.

02:21So that's 80 degrees Fahrenheit water temperature, 300 to 400 feet down into the ocean.

02:27And that is very, very early that we're seeing this.

02:31Typically, we don't see this until mid to late August, and we're seeing this in mid-June.

02:37You know, so that just adds a lot of fuel to these hurricanes, gives them a lot of fuel

02:41to work with.

02:42And it can lead to what we call rapid intensification, which is when a tropical cyclone increases

02:47its winds by about 35 miles per hour in a 24-hour period.

02:53We've seen this, it seems like, more frequently over the last couple of years.

02:57Think back to Hurricane Ian impacted Florida a couple of years ago, moved off of Cuba,

03:02and as soon as it got into the Gulf of Mexico, just rapidly exploded and then moved in just

03:07south of Tampa.

03:08So unfortunately, that's what we're really concerned about, is that we could have a system,

03:13you know, maybe it looks fairly benign, not a big deal.

03:17It could be a tropical storm, people may not take it seriously, and then all of a sudden

03:20you might have a major hurricane on your doorstep 24 to 36 hours later.

03:25So we really don't want people to become complacent, we want people to have their hurricane plans

03:30in place and to really pay attention to the forecast, as things can change very rapidly.

03:36So when you say you're worried about the intensification, are you primarily worried about the wind speeds

03:42we could see during hurricane season this year, or are you also worried about the rainfall

03:47that we could see?

03:48Yeah, every storm's a little bit different.

03:51A lot of the rainfall depends on how fast the storm is moving.

03:55Sometimes we have fairly weak storms that produce a ton of rainfall.

03:58I mean, just look at this tropical rainstorm.

04:00It doesn't even have a name and it's producing 4 to 8 inches so far, with another maybe 6

04:05to 12 on the way.

04:07So you know, the strength of the system doesn't necessarily dictate the amount of rainfall.

04:12Every system's a little different.

04:14I am concerned about kind of the wind speeds and the storm surge that could be associated

04:20with rapidly intensifying storms.

04:22Again, we'll kind of go back to that Ian example.

04:26Ian was a major hurricane when it made landfall there in southwest Florida, and it pushed

04:30a lot of water inland.

04:31We saw storm surges, you know, 10 to 15 feet in southwestern Florida, and that's just something

04:36you can't survive if you're on the coast.

04:40You have to evacuate.

04:42You have to think, you know, when we talk about storm surge, that is, you know, the

04:46water above normally dry ground.

04:49So if you go to the beach, essentially, and you stand right at, you know, where the water

04:53touches your toes, and, you know, we talk about a 5 to 10 foot storm surge, essentially

04:58that's like, you know, the height of you, if not taller, right?

05:03And then just extending inland.

05:05So that's kind of how I like to describe it to people, and if you're a coastal community,

05:10you have to evacuate under those circumstances because it's very, very dangerous.

05:14Storm surge and rainfall flooding are the biggest killers in tropical systems.

05:20A lot of people think about the wind.

05:22The wind does kill people, but the real danger is water.

05:26Water is the true killer in hurricanes, and that's why we really emphasize people to listen

05:32to their emergency managers, or, yeah, and government officials, and to take evacuation

05:37orders very, very seriously because water is the deadliest thing in a hurricane, and

05:43that's really what we want people to avoid.

05:45They say you can hide from the wind, but you have to run from the water.

05:50So that's kind of what, you know, we like to really emphasize to people.

05:54So yeah, just please listen to your emergency managers and listen to their advice.

How Bad Will Hurricane Season Be This Summer?: AccuWeather Expert Weighs In | Florida Storm

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