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00:00Natural disasters are some of the greatest and most unpredictable threats to humankind.
00:05Even with early warning systems in place, it's possible for major cities to be destroyed
00:10at any time by hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and volcanic explosions.
00:16But one disaster has loomed particularly large in the media for decades, with repeated claims
00:22that we're overdue for a major event.
00:25This is Unveiled, and today we're answering the extraordinary question…
00:29What if Yellowstone Erupts?
00:32Do you need the big questions answered?
00:34Are you constantly curious?
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00:42In recent years, it's been a go-to topic when thinking about the apocalypse.
00:46But the supervolcano in Yellowstone National Park is actually much less active than some
00:51corners of the media make it seem.
00:53With regular, sensationalist articles claiming that we're due a monster eruption in Wyoming
00:58quote, any day now.
01:00The idea that an event is imminent does generally come from our knowledge of past supervolcanic
01:05eruptions in the region, of which there have been three.
01:09One 2.1 million years ago, another 1.3 million years ago, and the most recent, 640,000 years
01:16ago.
01:17And so, judging by the gaps between those three dates, some say that we're fast approaching
01:21or even are inside the prime time for another eruption.
01:26Nevertheless, basing all our fears on an average gap between these numbers perhaps isn't
01:31all that reliable.
01:32And the chances are still that if Yellowstone does erupt again, then nobody on Earth today
01:37would be alive to see it.
01:38And then, even if it did blow tomorrow, it's also possible that we'd get a volcanic eruption
01:43that isn't a super-eruption.
01:45That Yellowstone would blow, but it wouldn't blow to the max.
01:49Volcanoes don't care all that much about how humans try to classify them.
01:53The effects that they could cause exist along a scale.
01:55So, say Yellowstone erupted, but not to its full potential.
01:59The event would still be destructive, but not any more or less apocalyptic than others
02:03like it.
02:04Still, there is no avoiding the full, heightened, and devastating potential that Yellowstone
02:09does have.
02:10Supervolcanoes are classified by the power of their past eruptions, so for any volcano
02:14to count as super, it has to have a super-eruption in its past, which is an eruption at eight
02:20or higher on the scale we use to measure these disasters, the Volcanic Explosivity Index.
02:26More specifically, a verified supervolcano has to have an eruption deposit larger than
02:32240 cubic miles.
02:34And because there's no category higher than super, this means that the deposit is effectively
02:39limitless, ranging from 240 up to 1,000 cubic miles or more.
02:45The reason these eruptions are so large is that they occur when vast underground chambers
02:49fill with so much magma they burst.
02:51In super-eruptions, the volume of magma is so great that an enormous depression forms
02:56in the ground when the chamber collapses, called a caldera.
03:00Yellowstone National Park is situated inside of three volcanic calderas, created by its
03:05three previous eruptions, so it really is a hotspot for this type of thing.
03:10Interestingly, though, Yellowstone's previous explosions aren't thought to have been the
03:13largest the world has ever seen.
03:16And any of our planet's other supervolcanoes have the potential for huge destruction, too.
03:21Yellowstone is simply the most notorious.
03:23It's the one that most people have heard of, and many people fear.
03:26So, since we can't stop it from one day erupting, what exactly will happen if, or
03:31when, it does?
03:33For starters, the activity we most associate with volcanoes, deadly, flowing lava, wouldn't
03:39be the most pressing problem… unless you were right at the centre.
03:42Lava flows would be relatively small, slow, and easily contained within the park, so you
03:47wouldn't have to overly worry about getting covered in molten rock.
03:50In fact, if you were that close to begin with – close enough to be dodging the early lava
03:55– then you may have already been killed by the initial blast of the eruption itself.
03:59Some have claimed that it would be as powerful as an 875,000 megaton explosion going off,
04:06at least, in the heart of the Midwest.
04:09Ash, on the other hand, is a totally different story.
04:12The biggest danger Yellowstone poses is an enormous pyroclastic flow, which is a giant
04:18and fast-moving cloud of toxic gas and volcanic matter.
04:22It's this that will start to spread ash across the US, with the effects potentially worsened
04:27and quickened depending on wind speed at the time.
04:30It's commonly said that the supervolcanic eruption could produce enough ash to block
04:34out the sun, plunging us into a volcanic winter and another ice age.
04:39It's a contestable issue, but there is some evidence to back it up.
04:43For example, it's theorised that the eruption of Lake Toba, 74,000 years ago, may have itself
04:49triggered a millennia of global cooling, so something similar definitely isn't out of
04:54the question for Yellowstone.
04:56Next, and if the initially less concerning lava causes forest fires in the park, then
05:01this would further increase the output of ash.
05:04So much so that it's thought that 500 square miles around the volcano itself would be
05:09quickly destroyed, choked and smothered by the cloud.
05:13On a wider scale, it's predicted that every single mainland US state, as well as parts
05:18of southern Canada and northern Mexico, would experience at least some of the debris.
05:23And even thousands of miles out, this ash is so much more than just an eyesore.
05:28It could render huge regions of North America unsuitable for farming and agriculture, sparking
05:34famines and polluting much of an entire continent's worth of water supply.
05:39And since the United States is Earth's largest economy, it's a disaster which would have
05:43ramifications for the entire world, even in places that mightn't see any of the volcanic
05:48ash or gas.
05:50In terms of loss of life, a Yellowstone eruption would inevitably cause some extinctions, with
05:54endemic species in the surrounding area almost certainly wiped out.
05:58And depending on exactly how far and how quickly the ash cloud travels, toxic debris could
06:03reach the ocean, causing yet more ecological devastation.
06:07Mankind as a whole would survive, but North America would suffer an untold list of casualties,
06:13as well as massive upheaval and displacement.
06:16If Yellowstone erupts with full force, then people will lose their homes, suffer massive
06:21injury, and many will die.
06:24To a certain extent, though, there may be opportunity to plan for the disaster.
06:28One positive note is that volcanoes don't usually just erupt out of nowhere, especially
06:33not the most destructive ones.
06:35There are plenty of signs that geologists look for when they're trying to predict whether
06:39one is liable to blow, including seismic disturbances, an increase in sulfur dioxide released from
06:45the ground, and even a change in the behaviour of animals.
06:48Molten rock flows below the surface are difficult to measure, but they're also the best indicator
06:53of a magma chamber slowly filling up.
06:55The problem here, though, is that notable change can happen weeks or months before an
07:00eruption, but sometimes it's years or even decades.
07:03As far as volcanoes are concerned, there's always a degree of uncertainty, but there's
07:07usually at least a little time to prepare.
07:10As such, when the Yellowstone question truly becomes a matter of when, and not if, we should
07:15see widespread countermeasures put in place to try to at least limit the damage.
07:21Evacuation plans and drills within 500 miles of the park, huge stockpiles of food and water
07:25across the continent, emergency housing built along the coast, as far away from the imminent
07:30eruption and ash cloud as possible.
07:32They'd all need to be considered.
07:35Yellowstone would likely become a complex diplomatic issue, too, as refugees from the
07:39worst-affected regions look to the international community for help.
07:43Meanwhile, some living further afield might rely on underground bunkers to keep them safe,
07:48in which case the authorities would need to register and probably approve all of them,
07:52so that they'd be able to relocate everyone once the worst of the disaster had passed.
07:57Given enough time, we could perhaps try to save those endemic and local plants and wildlife
08:02at risk, putting animals in conservation-oriented zoos, and plants in purpose-built structures
08:08like the Svalbard Global Seed Vault.
08:10Quite what the world would look like once the dust had settled, though, is difficult
08:13to imagine.
08:15Underground bunkers, temporary housing, and evacuation drills could save us from the immediate
08:19effects, but the recovery period would be long and gruelling, with huge areas covered
08:24in layers of ash potentially metres thick, depending upon how close to the volcano you
08:29get.
08:30The prospects of anything growing in the near future would be low, and even in the far future,
08:35a super-eruption would change and disrupt soil types and farming practices for generations.
08:40The legacy of Yellowstone could shape our planet for centuries, even millennia, after
08:45the worst happens.
08:47That said, volcanoes are a natural feature of the environment, and are actually integral
08:51to how many ecosystems work.
08:53The natural world relies on them in many ways, so should Yellowstone erupt, it ultimately
08:58wouldn't trigger total Armageddon.
09:00The planet itself would definitely recover from such an event, just as it has recovered
09:05from all the super-eruptions of the past.
09:08For now, there's no denying that a worst-case scenario, a full-potential Yellowstone eruption,
09:14would have a massive effect on life on Earth.
09:16But at the same time, it wouldn't be the first time that humanity had faced a disaster
09:20on this scale.
09:21Again, the Toba Catastrophe was 74,000 years ago, and our species lived to tell the tale.
09:27In fact, it may have even been bigger than Yellowstone, but humanity survived it, even
09:32without a lot of the prior knowledge that we now have.
09:35It would be devastating and dangerous.
09:38It'd create all-new landscapes across an entire continent.
09:42It could trigger wide-reaching problems with the global economy, and Yellowstone National
09:46Park itself would never look the same.
09:49But, after all the tragedy, ruin, and desperation, life would still find a way to continue.
09:56And that's what would happen if Yellowstone were to erupt.
10:00What do you think?
10:01Is there anything we missed?
10:02Let us know in the comments, check out these other clips from Unveiled, and make sure you
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