#budget2024 #inflation #pakistan #specialtransmission
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ARY News is a leading Pakistani news channel that promises to bring you factual and timely international stories and stories about Pakistan, sports, entertainment, and business, amid others.
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00:00In the name of Allah, the most Gracious, the most Merciful.
00:05Once again, we welcome you to Arwa News' special budget report,
00:09where our aim is to explain to you in a simple and easy way
00:13what the government thinks about the financial year that it has been going through.
00:20And what are the government's plans for the next financial year.
00:24We will find out about both of these things when after a little while,
00:27at around 5.30pm,
00:29the Minister of Treasury, Mr. Aurangzeb will present an economic survey
00:32and will tell us how the government performed,
00:34how many targets the government had set, how many targets were achieved,
00:36how many were missed, and when the government will present the budget tomorrow.
00:39But we will present it to you in a very simple way.
00:43Inshallah, we are with you now.
00:45We will talk to different guests.
00:46To start with, we have a very relevant personality with us.
00:49Former leader of Pakistan Muslim League.
00:52There is a lot of emphasis on the word former because there have been many new formers.
00:55Mr. Mohammad Zubair is with us for a few moments.
00:58And Mr. Zubair is very relevant, of course,
01:00because the previous government has either been a part of the major economic decisions
01:06or seen them closely.
01:08So, his input will be very important in this.
01:11Mr. Zubair, Assalam-o-Alaikum.
01:13Yes, Assalam-o-Alaikum. How are you?
01:15Thank you very much for your time, sir.
01:17I will start with the privatisation, Mr. Zubair,
01:20because you had a direct connection with the Privatisation Commission.
01:24This is amazing, isn't it?
01:26The last financial year that is coming to an end,
01:29the government had estimated that it will take around Rs 96 billion from the privatisation proceeds
01:35and got around Rs 1.25 billion.
01:37That is, 1.03% of the target.
01:40This is unbelievable.
01:42Now, the coming financial year,
01:44do you think that the government will be able to get some good money from the privatisation proceeds
01:49or will it fall into the hands of politics?
01:52Mr. Waseem, if you allow me, I will definitely talk about privatisation.
01:57But overall, how was the last year, which is coming to an end in June?
02:02In simple words, it is very important that I get my viewpoint.
02:07There is an easy way in the world to see that the economy was good,
02:13it was fine, it was very good.
02:15There are macroeconomic indicators that can be compared.
02:20They can be equated with last Sunday or other countries in the world.
02:25You can do it from India, Bangladesh or even last Sunday.
02:29So, if the last year, which will end in June,
02:33if you look at the economic indicators,
02:35all of them, 95% I can say,
02:39like the tax to GDP ratio,
02:41which shows the effectiveness of your tax,
02:45if you look at the investment to GDP ratio,
02:47which is at the lowest level in 50 years,
02:51despite the fact that you know what we have heard about investment.
02:56The GDP growth, which reflects the overall economy,
02:59was negative last year,
03:01this year it will be 2.3%,
03:04which is less than 2.5%,
03:06which is less than your population growth.
03:09Similarly, if you look at the increase in loans,
03:12the increase in loans has increased.
03:16Loans have increased.
03:19At present, there are approximately 67 billion loans.
03:26And you will remember that when we took it two years ago,
03:29there was a huge increase.
03:32Because of that, your interest or bank payments have increased so much.
03:38Because of that, the policy rate has been kept so high,
03:42because of which the economic activity has also decreased.
03:45And similarly, the state institutions have also increased.
03:48Is there a rough number for this?
03:50Since the PDM has come,
03:52roughly how many thousands of billions of loans have been taken?
03:55I am asking because there was a time when there was a part of the political narrative.
03:58When Khan Sahib used to say that from Qayam-e-Pakistan to Noon League,
04:01this much happened, then alone Noon League took this much.
04:04Then when PTI came, Noon League started telling that Khan Sahib took this much.
04:07If we can move forward with the same narrative,
04:09then since the PDM has come, how many thousands of billions of loans have been taken?
04:13Approximately 50 billion has been increased in two years.
04:18Now, if you look at the previous three and a half years,
04:21when the PTI government used to use PML,
04:25then it took 25,000 billion and increased it to 19,000 billion in three and a half years.
04:33And 25,000 billion has been increased in two years.
04:36Exactly in two years, 25,000 billion.
04:38So you can guess that the speed at which these loans have increased,
04:43and how much benefit it has given to the public,
04:45then naturally the public has no benefit.
04:47Similarly, if you look at the increase in poverty,
04:50similarly, if you look at inflation,
04:52despite the fact that it has decreased by 11.8% in a month,
04:58there are two ways to make that graph.
05:01One way is that 12.7% was taken two years ago,
05:05and it went up to 38%.
05:08And then from 38%, it is now 11.8%.
05:12And some of the PMLN government started from 38% and took it down.
05:18But that 38% also happened after 13 months of being in power.
05:23And that gradually increased.
05:27It crossed 20%, 25%, 30%.
05:31And I am talking about CPI inflation.
05:33SPI, which reflects more essential items, food items, etc.,
05:38which affects the common man more,
05:40it went up to 49%.
05:42But if you look at the CPI for the whole year,
05:45then it is about 24%.
05:47Mr. Zubair, since you are talking about inflation,
05:49I would like to ask you a related question,
05:51because what we call inflation,
05:53what we call inflation,
05:55tell me, how much do you agree with this logic,
05:58which the friends of the government say,
06:00that it is absolutely right that inflation has increased so much.
06:02One is that we have got some time,
06:04so we have controlled it,
06:05because of which it has come down to 11.8% in the month of May,
06:09which is the lowest in the last 30 months.
06:11Because of which the discount rate has also decreased.
06:14Second, they say that the reason for the increase in this is
06:17that the previous government of Mr. Khan,
06:19in which he had not decided anything beforehand,
06:23suddenly after seeing his government go,
06:25the petroleum prices of the freeze,
06:28and subsidies that were given from the national treasury,
06:31that was a popular step,
06:32but two things happened due to that.
06:34One is that there was an unexpected burden on the treasury.
06:37The second is that the IMF got angry,
06:39it made it more strict.
06:40These two factors came together,
06:42due to which inflation increased more.
06:44How much do you think this argument holds?
06:47To a certain extent,
06:49you could have said this in the short term,
06:51but at the end of February 2022,
06:54when Mr. Khan's government was in power,
06:56the decision to freeze was made,
06:58at the cost of electricity and petrol.
07:01Obviously, this increased your loss.
07:04Do you think it was a wrong decision?
07:06A political decision?
07:08It was a political decision,
07:10but there is another narrative with it.
07:12There is also a doctrinal narrative.
07:13They also saw that our government is facing a no-confidence motion,
07:17at this time, they should make a populist decision.
07:19This is why it was made public.
07:21But on April 12th,
07:23Mr. Shehbaz Sharif's government came into power.
07:26On the night of April 14th, you had to increase petrol.
07:28Mr. Khan made a mistake, didn't he?
07:30Did you increase it?
07:31You didn't increase it.
07:32Why didn't you increase it?
07:33Because of political reasons.
07:35You had to increase it again on April 30th.
07:37You didn't increase it again.
07:39You had to increase it again on May 15th.
07:41You didn't increase it again.
07:42So, the total subsidy you added in a month and a half,
07:46was more than that.
07:48But you increased it after 8-10 weeks.
07:50You increased it so much,
07:51that in one night, you increased it by 18%,
07:53and in the next 15 days, you increased it by 25%.
07:54You kept increasing it.
07:55No, I increased it by 30%.
07:57I increased it by 30%.
07:59But, Waseem,
08:01in the beginning of September,
08:04in 2022, the IMF had come back.
08:07Strict decisions had been made.
08:09After that, you increased the inflation.
08:11By the way, let me tell you,
08:13on March 26th, 2022,
08:15we had a inflation-based march from Lahore to Islamabad,
08:18which included Maryam Nawaz, Muhammad Zubair,
08:21Hamza Shahbaz, Daniyal Aziz,
08:24Musaddiq Malik, Maryam Aurangzeb.
08:26It was an inflation-based march.
08:27When it was 12.7%,
08:29after that, when we went up,
08:31we were saying that we will reduce it.
08:33Mr. Shahbaz Sharif said,
08:34in the next 6 months,
08:35we will reduce it.
08:36Okay, let me ask an innocent question.
08:38Let me continue.
08:39That inflation,
08:40because it is also related to the budget,
08:41it is also related to the political economy.
08:43That inflation,
08:44during the march,
08:45because it was the title of the march,
08:47the number of times the march was being discussed,
08:49the inflation was being discussed.
08:50I am assuming.
08:51Did anyone ever ask this innocent question?
08:52Did anyone from the leadership,
08:53Maryam Bibi or someone,
08:54that brother, if we come,
08:56will the inflation be reduced or not?
08:58Did anyone ask you, Mr. Mifta,
09:00because you were the brains of the economy at that time.
09:03Yes,
09:04as soon as we got on the container in Lahore,
09:08Model Town,
09:09our headquarter,
09:10I said,
09:11this is a very poor idea.
09:13Maryam also asked me,
09:15why is it a poor idea?
09:16I said,
09:17why are we focusing on this?
09:19Because we will not be able to control the inflation,
09:21it will increase after it comes.
09:22She said,
09:23no,
09:24we had left it at 4%,
09:25we will reduce it.
09:26We have great people,
09:28we will reduce it.
09:30Mifta was not there at that time.
09:31Mifta had joined from Jhelum.
09:33I went to Jhelum and asked Maryam,
09:36Mifta,
09:37Mifta,
09:38tell me,
09:39do you think the inflation will be reduced in the coming weeks and months,
09:42or will it increase?
09:44She said,
09:45frankly,
09:46I think it will increase.
09:48So,
09:49secondly,
09:50And was she shocked?
09:51Maryam Sahiba was shocked,
09:52what is he saying?
09:53It came as a surprise to her.
09:54She was shocked because she was thinking,
09:56that this is very simple.
09:58And since he is a scoundrel,
10:00Imran Khan,
10:01because he does not want,
10:02he is not sincere with Pakistan,
10:04because he wants to kill the people,
10:06that is why there is inflation.
10:08So, there is a problem of basic understanding in the economy.
10:10Mr. Zubair,
10:11if you stay with me for a while,
10:12and then I have to come to privatization as well.
10:14I would like to ask Mr. Faisal Wawda,
10:17who is a businessman.
10:19Mr. Faisal,
10:20Assalam-o-Alaikum.
10:21Wa-alaikum-as-salam, Mr. Pradhan.
10:22Huzoor,
10:23thank you very much.
10:24I do not go into any technical details,
10:25that this,
10:26that,
10:27this number,
10:28that number.
10:29The simple question is that,
10:30this government is such a government,
10:31that it has come into power.
10:33And at least,
10:34there is no danger,
10:35that if we have taken a bold decision,
10:37then,
10:38the relationship with the government is not so bad,
10:40that there is a risk of bankruptcy.
10:42Rather,
10:43it is the other way around.
10:44So,
10:45now,
10:46if this government does not take bold decisions,
10:47which,
10:48which sectors are never taxed,
10:50and were not taxed,
10:51because they were taxed,
10:52then they will fall on the government.
10:54So,
10:55because of this,
10:56the government does not have the courage.
10:57So,
10:58is this government,
10:59because it is strong in this respect,
11:00that,
11:01anyway,
11:02their relationship with the institutions is not bad,
11:03or not bad with the institution,
11:04will it take any bold steps,
11:05in your opinion,
11:06which are better for the economy,
11:07and,
11:08undoubtedly,
11:09will be unpopular.
11:10Mr. Pradhan,
11:11see,
11:12till the time,
11:13this drama is going on,
11:14of the opposition parties,
11:15like today,
11:16there was a drama,
11:17PTI made an issue on finance,
11:18on the committee.
11:19Brother,
11:20I want to tell you from your perspective,
11:21PTI,
11:22Senate,
11:23with the understanding of the government,
11:24that,
11:25we will take these,
11:26these,
11:27these committees,
11:28and,
11:29in this,
11:30did not contest,
11:31did not contest the election,
11:32did not contest the election,
11:33did not come towards the election,
11:34and,
11:35came and,
11:36gave such a dramatic statement,
11:37and,
11:38tried,
11:39on the secretary of the senate,
11:40Mr. Pradhan,
11:41you are saying,
11:42today,
11:43the committee of the senate,
11:44made by the treasury,
11:45the chairman,
11:46was elected,
11:47without any competition,
11:48by the people's party,
11:49Mr. Salim Mandviwala,
11:50this was accepted,
11:51with the setting,
11:52and approval of PTI.
11:53Sir,
11:54this setting,
11:55has already been done,
11:56according to the opposition,
11:57the committees that were needed,
11:58the important committees,
11:59have been given to them,
12:00this understanding,
12:01otherwise,
12:02they would have contested,
12:03the election,
12:04their chairman,
12:05would have also stood up,
12:06he did not stand up,
12:07the selection,
12:08does not take place here,
12:09he was supported,
12:10and,
12:11he used to say,
12:12Mr. Imran Khan,
12:13you also have to tell us,
12:14that we have done all this,
12:15so,
12:16this is a drama,
12:17so,
12:18I said,
12:19leave it,
12:20leave it,
12:21I said,
12:22I will make you unopposed,
12:23Salim Mandviwala,
12:24unopposed,
12:25because,
12:26he is a capable person,
12:27now,
12:28whether we like it or not,
12:29our party,
12:30has to back the finance minister,
12:31for something,
12:32doing right,
12:33if for the first time,
12:34the finance minister,
12:35is doing a good job,
12:36has brought the economy,
12:3711 feet down,
12:38so,
12:39what are you doing,
12:40sitting in the streets,
12:41on the other hand,
12:42there is a lot of talk,
12:43about privatization,
12:44privatization will happen,
12:45with a bang,
12:46this time,
12:47this time,
12:48with a bang,
12:49privatization will happen,
12:50without that,
12:51there is no survival,
12:52of Pakistan,
12:53and the people's party,
12:54in this,
12:55not me,
12:56the people's party,
12:57will do the same thing,
12:58about privatization,
12:59that,
13:00publicly,
13:01she will keep saying,
13:02that,
13:03oh,
13:04there is oppression,
13:05oh,
13:06poverty,
13:07but,
13:08inside,
13:09she will keep saying,
13:10okay,
13:11look,
13:12Mr. Badami,
13:13what she does,
13:14is a part of politics,
13:15always,
13:16optics,
13:17but,
13:18she must know that,
13:19but,
13:20I am telling you,
13:21with a bang,
13:22privatization will happen,
13:23will happen,
13:24and will happen,
13:25so,
13:26what will be privatized,
13:27in this financial year,
13:28will happen,
13:29and will happen,
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