Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates Before the November Election? Economists Are Divided.

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Economists are divided on whether the Fed will signal interest rate cuts in 2024 at its June policy meeting based on recent higher inflation figures. Most analysts expect the first rate cut to occur in September, just before the November presidential election, though the Fed insists its decisions are based solely on economic data. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, and progress toward that goal is expected to be slow in the second half of 2024. A plurality of economists surveyed expect the "dot plot" forecast to show two rate cuts this year. In contrast, others see one cut or none depending on upcoming inflation and economic data.