Strategi Menyerap Kelebihan Pasokan Semen Nasional
Pasar semen di dalam negeri saat ini tengah mengalami kelebihan pasokan dan rendahnya serapan produk semen nasional. Berdasarkan data Kementerian Perindustrian, kapasitas produksi semen disepanjang tahun 2023 tercatat 120 juta metrik ton per tahun. Sedangkan, kebutuhan semen nasional sebesar 66,8 juta ton pada tahun lalu. Dengan demikian, ada kelebihan 53,2 juta ton semen nasional yang tidak terserap.
Kondisi ini disinyalir karena masih tingginya importasi barang dari semen, seperti beton pracetak, beton prategang dan papan fiber. Kementerian Perindustri pun turun tangan dengan mendorong peningkatan pemanfaatan semen nasional melalui proyek-proyek strategis pemerintah maupun swasta.
Sementara berdasarkan data Badan Pusat Statistik, nilai impor barang dari semen selama bulan Januari hingga Maret 2024 tercatat sebesar USD8,38 juta, dengan volume 28,12 juta kilogram. Nilai importasi tersebut naik dari periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya, yaitu USD5,98 juta dengan volume 31,9 juta kilogram.
Kondisi ini disinyalir karena masih tingginya importasi barang dari semen, seperti beton pracetak, beton prategang dan papan fiber. Kementerian Perindustri pun turun tangan dengan mendorong peningkatan pemanfaatan semen nasional melalui proyek-proyek strategis pemerintah maupun swasta.
Sementara berdasarkan data Badan Pusat Statistik, nilai impor barang dari semen selama bulan Januari hingga Maret 2024 tercatat sebesar USD8,38 juta, dengan volume 28,12 juta kilogram. Nilai importasi tersebut naik dari periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya, yaitu USD5,98 juta dengan volume 31,9 juta kilogram.
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TVTranscript
00:00Upcoming Episodes
00:15Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:17Back again with me, Prasetya Wiwo, in Market Review program
00:21that will discuss the issues of economic movement in Indonesia
00:23Our live streaming can be watched on IDXREL.com
00:26This time, we will discuss about the cement sector
00:30where the Ministry of Industry has given information
00:34that the cement industry is currently in overcapacity
00:37or we can say that there is an excess of production capacity
00:41and the supply is still not up to expectations
00:44What is the real condition like?
00:46Let's start the complete market review
00:57Viewers, the cement industry is currently experiencing
01:00an excess of production and low supply in the domestic market
01:03This is a sign that the importation of cement is still high
01:07such as concrete for molding, concrete for tensioning, and also fiberboard
01:15The cement market in Indonesia is currently experiencing
01:18an excess of production and low supply of national cement products
01:23Based on the Ministry of Industry's data
01:25the production capacity of cement throughout 2023
01:29was recorded at 120 million metric tons per year
01:32while the national cement demand was 66.8 million tons last year
01:38Thus, there is an excess of 53.2 million tons of national cement that is not absorbed
01:45This condition is indicated because the importation of cement products is still high
01:49such as concrete for molding, concrete for tensioning, and fiberboard
01:54The Ministry of Industry also supported the increase of national cement use
01:59through government and private strategic projects
02:04In addition, the Director of the Cement, Ceramic, and Mining Processing Industry
02:09of the Ministry of Industry, Putu Nadia Astuti said
02:13has sent a letter to the Minister of Economy
02:17so that the investment of cement is still within the policy of negative investment document
02:21And the utilization in 2023 is only about 58%
02:29So, the national cement industry can be categorized as over capacity
02:39Meanwhile, based on the data of the Statistic Center
02:42the import value of cement products from January to March 2024
02:48was 8.38 million US Dollars
02:52with a volume of 28.12 million kilograms
02:56The amount is from the same period as the previous year
02:59worth 5.98 million US Dollars
03:02and a volume of 31.9 million kilograms
03:07In Jakarta, there is a company called IDXC
03:13Yes, viewers, to discuss an interesting topic this time
03:16the strategy to absorb the advantages of the national cement team
03:19We have contacted Mr. Lili Unggul Raharjo
03:23He is the General Director of the Indonesian Cement Association
03:25Good morning, Mr. Lili
03:28Good morning, Mr. Hossein
03:29How are you, sir?
03:32I'm fine, thank you
03:34Thank you for your time
03:36The information has been conveyed by the government
03:38especially from the Ministry of Industry
03:40There is an advantage of the national cement team
03:44But before we discuss further
03:45a brief review from you
03:47related to the performance and condition
03:49of the cement industry in Indonesia
03:51up to the middle of this year
03:53What is it like, sir?
03:55Okay, thank you
03:57As mentioned by the Minister of Industry
04:01it is true
04:03if we refer to the data of 2023
04:09our capacity of 120 citators
04:12domestic absorption is only around 65.5%
04:19there is export of cement around 1.7%
04:22so the utilization is only around 55-56%
04:27Okay
04:28However, with this year 2024
04:33while the data we have
04:36until April
04:39Year-to-date April or January to April 2024
04:45compared to the same period last year
04:50actually the growth is still minus 0.2%
04:56As we know, because in March and April
05:01there are fasting, Eid, long holidays, etc.
05:07So there is a decrease in the consumption of cement
05:11While in May, we are still consolidating some industries
05:16and have reached some increases
05:19which we hope will decrease the gap
05:25compared to last year
05:28Mr. Liri, if it has been said
05:30it is true that there is an advantage of the national team
05:32So when did the overcapacity
05:35of the cement industry in Indonesia directly?
05:39Actually, it can be seen
05:44Since 2014, it has been felt
05:49there will be an advantage
05:51because some new factories are starting to produce
05:56Okay
05:57Because at that time, around 2010
06:00some industries were pushed to expand
06:06including new players
06:09because there will be a big gap
06:11at that time it was like that
06:13the first infrastructure
06:14Okay
06:15However, the growth assumption at that time
06:18as far as I remember
06:19I was also invited at that time
06:22it was assumed 6%
06:25but it didn't happen
06:26even sometimes it was minus the growth
06:31so that the advantages could not be absorbed
06:38In 2019, before the pandemic
06:42it was not bad
06:45Our utilization was 63%
06:48the market was 77 million tons
06:51then the pandemic
06:54and until now
06:57compared to 2019
06:59we have not returned to the position at that time
07:01at least the utilization is above 60%
07:07Okay, but the main factor
07:08that causes the emergence of new competitors
07:12in the cement factory
07:14or is it the economic condition
07:16that is not yet in line with the expectations
07:18of the cement industry itself?
07:21Yes, there are many factors
07:23that lead to this cement consumption
07:28The capital cement consumption in Indonesia is still low
07:32which is around 0.23 million per million inhabitants
07:38it means that now
07:41the population of Indonesia is around 110
07:43around 65
07:45the consumption
07:46if from a foreign country
07:47it is already above 0.35 and 0.4
07:50so it is quite low
07:52it is influenced by the purchasing power
07:55the purchasing power of the community
07:57then the existing infrastructure projects
08:01then the relationship is also purchasing power
08:03earlier with the households
08:05as we know
08:06the households backlog in Indonesia is quite high
08:1012.7 million alone
08:13that's why we want
08:15later on the side
08:17projects that have been budgeted
08:19where this year
08:21there is an increase
08:23in the budget for houses
08:25which can absorb the capital
08:27then the purchasing power
08:29and so on can be raised
08:31Yes, what's interesting, Mr. Lili
08:33we know that the current government is eager
08:35in the last 10 years
08:36for the construction of infrastructure
08:38in water resources
08:39then highway
08:41buildings in the area
08:42with we know the economic tightening
08:44that wants to be achieved
08:45new industrial areas are also emerging
08:47can't it absorb
08:49from the production side
08:51our cement in the country
08:54in the budget
08:56RIPN
08:58APBN 2024
09:00there is an increase
09:02that is now for the infrastructure
09:04around 120 trillion
09:07and if we
09:09equate it to the need for cement
09:11around 18.4 million tons
09:14so far
09:16not yet
09:18but our capacity
09:20is quite high
09:22120 million tons
09:24then
09:26all this time
09:28there is more investment in retail
09:30in the budget
09:32for the construction of private houses
09:34then
09:36also the need
09:38for construction
09:40because usually if the construction is large
09:43for example for toll roads
09:45for
09:47airport
09:49for
09:51dam
09:53and so on
09:55it can use cement
09:57and cement
09:59the proportion is only 30%
10:01so
10:03more
10:05from
10:07cement
10:09even though
10:11for the construction
10:13of cement
10:15for several projects
10:17we hope
10:19even though
10:21it can't raise the bar yet
10:23later
10:25if based on UNDP
10:27with the GDP growth
10:29there is
10:31the match between
10:33capacity
10:35and demand
10:37it happens around
10:392035-2050
10:41that's the match
10:43we just hope there is no new factory
10:45we know
10:47because moratorium
10:49is already done for the cement industry
10:51is this also effective
10:53then how
10:55because
10:57there are also imported products
10:59from cement
11:01we will discuss in the next segment
11:03we will stop for a while
11:05and viewers make sure you are still with us
11:09yes
11:23yes thank you you are still with us
11:25and also we talk about the utilization
11:27from the national cement industry
11:29the full data can be seen from your television screen
11:31we see the movement
11:33from 2018 to 2023
11:35in 2018
11:37for utilization reached 64%
11:39then it went down to 59% in 2020,
11:44in 2022, it was 57%, and in 2023, there was a slight increase to 58%.
11:52Next, let's look at the capacity of cement production in 2023.
11:55As we mentioned earlier, there are 120 million metric tons,
12:00while the need for cement is only 66.8 million metric tons,
12:04so there is a production surplus of around 53.2 million metric tons.
12:11We will continue our discussion with Mr. Lili Unggulul Harjo,
12:15who is the Chairperson of the Indonesian Cement Association.
12:18Mr. Lili, we will continue.
12:20If we talk about utilization,
12:24what level do you think you are moving at right now?
12:27In 2024, it has been said that the utilization of the cement industry has declined
12:33in the past few years.
12:38As I mentioned earlier, in 2019, before the pandemic,
12:43the utilization was quite high because the domestic market can absorb around 70 million metric tons.
12:51There are still a few million metric tons left to export cement,
12:56because most of the export is in the market.
12:58The utilization is 63%.
13:00Then it fell significantly in 2020 during the pandemic,
13:05it fell by 10%.
13:07Then in 2021, there was an increase again.
13:10In 2022, it fell again.
13:13In 2024, it started to rise, so the domestic market is 65.5%.
13:19Then it was added to export around 1.7 million metric tons.
13:26So, it's not bad. That's what makes the utilization a little bit up again.
13:31But then in 2024,
13:39we projected a 3% increase.
13:47Although this is also quite optimistic,
13:51we can expect a 3% increase, so that the utilization can increase by around 5-7% now.
14:01And each factory is different.
14:05Some are 70%, some are only 50-40% depending on the location and market conditions around there.
14:17But if we look at another factor,
14:19the import of cement, does it have an impact or is it not so significant?
14:25More because of the factors that you have mentioned earlier,
14:27for the domestic market conditions only?
14:31Import means the cement product and also the linger product,
14:38now it is prohibited.
14:40But if the related products, etc., I need to check.
14:45But even if there is, it's not big.
14:48The import in briquettes is not big.
14:53Because in Indonesia itself, the briquette project is usually supplied with ceramic cement.
15:01And the ceramic cement is only 30%, around 30%.
15:05Some are for briquettes, some are for large construction facilities, etc.
15:14So I don't think it's a big deal.
15:16If there is import data, we can check it later.
15:19The most important thing is not the price.
15:22This is because of the oversupply,
15:25because of the excess capacity of the production,
15:28while the demand for domestic consumption is still low.
15:33And I would like to say that our capital consumption is still low.
15:38That's it.
15:38So what is the strategy?
15:40If what has been prepared by the cement industry players,
15:44what is the impact?
15:46Is it related to the cost of production?
15:48Then maybe also the cost of consumption related to the sustained utilization?
15:55Yes, with this overcapacity, which is already low,
16:00the production cost will definitely be higher.
16:08Because 100% is a full capacity production,
16:11so with a low production, the production cost will be higher.
16:17Then the next impact is that the profitability is also lower.
16:24We know that the cement industry requires quite high capital investment.
16:34So the debt service will be long on the debt that will affect the payment.
16:44That's why some companies have a strategy to survive
16:51by looking for new partners, namely acquisitions or majors.
16:58What is the strategy carried out by the cement industry?
17:05In the cement industry itself,
17:07one is to do efficiency, innovation to be able to suppress the cost of production.
17:15We know that the energy cost is the main one.
17:19Almost 53% of the production cost comes from energy,
17:26namely electricity and thermal energy,
17:30in other words, coal.
17:31Coal is the largest, about 33% of the coal itself.
17:35So in addition to reducing carbon emissions,
17:41CO2, we also start using alternative coal to replace coal or positive fuel.
17:50In addition to reducing CO2,
17:53we also do efficiency in terms of production cost,
17:59then innovation of new products, environmental-friendly cement, etc.
18:03That's from our internal.
18:07There was also a strategy from several industries that tried to do the same.
18:11We hope that now we continue to support,
18:16especially in some contractors who already have a plan.
18:22As I mentioned earlier, there is a plan for the RIPBN infrastructure
18:32which is quite high, Rp422 trillion, which will include 18 million cement,
18:38which is expected to be completed.
18:40Then, of course, we also continue to increase,
18:46for example, the program of subsidized houses,
18:50then get a new house for the lower middle class,
18:58which can be realized.
19:00Because the biggest market is retail.
19:06So that's the strategy.
19:12Okay, Mr. Lili, but is there any other strategy?
19:14For example, we increase export.
19:16Do the export markets for Indonesian cement products still promise or not?
19:20Hold on, we'll answer in a moment.
19:22Mr. Lili and Mr. Mirsa, we'll be right back after the break.
19:36Thank you for joining us in Market Review,
19:46and still discussing the Indonesian cement sector,
19:48which is the advantage of the team.
19:50And then we will continue this interesting discussion
19:52with Mr. Lili Unggulur Harjo,
19:54Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association.
19:56Mr. Lili, then how?
19:58If there was a strategy or solution that has been done by companies,
20:02in the cement industry, there is merger and acquisition,
20:06then also efficiency,
20:08then also how to make the production cost
20:12can be balanced with the production that is produced.
20:16Then how about our export?
20:18Does the potential still promise or not?
20:22One of the solutions that can help is export.
20:28Actually, the export margin is quite low.
20:34But it will be better than not doing export
20:38because it will minimize the production
20:42if we can't export
20:46because at least the variable cost can be covered
20:50because the base cost has been covered by others.
20:54The export market is mostly circular.
20:58So, from 10.5 million tons that we exported in 2023,
21:04around 1.2 million tons are cement,
21:06and around 9.3 million tons are circular.
21:14The competition in export is also quite intense.
21:20With Vietnam, with Thailand,
21:22with Thailand in particular, they also oversupply.
21:26Vietnam's oversupply is also quite high.
21:28Moreover, they lost the market in China.
21:33China used to import 10 million tons from Vietnam,
21:39then now it has stopped again.
21:41Chinese factories have started to reactivate,
21:44which is now more environmentally friendly.
21:46So, the demand in China has also decreased.
21:48Finally, the market that we have exported from Indonesia has declined.
21:59Besides how APBN can be optimized to use the infrastructure,
22:03there are hundreds of trillions,
22:06is there anything needed from the cement industry itself,
22:11incentives or fiscal policies that are desired,
22:14so that it can help with the current conditions to increase utilization,
22:18and also the production can be absorbed by the domestic market?
22:23We hope that the strategic projects will work,
22:28then we also hope that the incentives related to home ownership can also be facilitated.
22:38There are a lot of infrastructure projects now,
22:42there are 1 million households, there are toll roads,
22:46then the IKN, even though the IKN only uses 1 million tons per year,
22:51so it's quite large.
22:53Then there are incentives to get new houses,
23:00because we know that the backlog of houses is quite large, 12.7 million.
23:05Then, the incentives for the industry that we hope,
23:10we are now getting cement supply with the DMO scheme,
23:16which I think is quite helpful,
23:19but I hope the implementation is really helped,
23:24so that the suppliers who are tasked
23:27commit to supply cement at the price of DMO.
23:32Because there are new regulations,
23:35maybe we need to convey that
23:38so that the supplier does not have to get a penalty
23:45if it doesn't own DMO, but it's better to export,
23:48because the penalty is not too big.
23:53Of course, we don't want it to be like that,
23:56because it's heavy.
23:59The current energy is quite high,
24:01coal, then solar water, etc.,
24:05which also affects the increase.
24:07In 2022, there will be an increase in coal prices
24:11by 32% compared to 2008.
24:14Actually, we can't predict if the increase is quite expensive.
24:19But the problem of this energy supply has been communicated, Mr. Lili,
24:24because this is very important.
24:26Every month there is a review meeting with the SDM
24:32related to this DMO,
24:35and we sell it to our customers.
24:37So far, most of it has been fulfilled,
24:41there are some that have not yet been fully obtained,
24:46because maybe between the location and the supplier
24:51and the quality level, etc., it hasn't been matched.
24:54But we are also worried that with the new regulations,
24:57the penalty is not too significant,
25:04so the suppliers will definitely choose to export
25:08rather than supply the DMO.
25:12Okay.
25:13If you predict, Mr. Lili,
25:15from the Indonesian Cement Association,
25:17that this oversupply condition
25:19has the potential to happen until when?
25:22Is it for a longer period of time,
25:24or will there be a solution soon
25:26by including a transition to leadership,
25:28infrastructure will still be stimulated?
25:32If we project it with the existing statistics,
25:37the growth per year is the best,
25:40now it's only about 3%,
25:43we can only match it in 2050 between supply and demand.
25:49If we refer to the UNDP study,
25:54with a certain GDP growth assumption,
26:00it matches around 2035-2040, faster.
26:05Of course, we hope that later,
26:08with new regulations, economic investment,
26:13it will be even better,
26:15the GDP will be higher,
26:19so the consumption of capital will increase,
26:23and we hope that by 2035-2040,
26:27it will match between supply and demand.
26:30So it's still quite a long journey for the cement industry
26:32to reach its ideal.
26:34That's why we really hope that there will be a moratorium
26:39so that there will be no new cement factories.
26:43Otherwise, the situation will get worse.
26:46Okay, that's it for the analysis and interesting information
26:49that has been conveyed by Mr. Lili Nguraharjo,
26:51Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association,
26:53to the audience,
26:54and hopefully there will be a solution soon.
26:57So it's not too far away,
26:59if we wait for the ideal utilization process at 50%,
27:03it can be even higher.
27:05Mr. Lili, thank you very much for your time and sharing.
27:09Thank you.
27:10Good luck with your activities.
27:12Stay healthy.
27:13Stay healthy.
27:14Dear audience, don't leave your seat,
27:16because we will be back soon with another interesting topic,
27:19Mitigating the Economic Shadow in Indonesia's Economy.
27:23We'll be right back.
27:39Indonesian Cement Association