The way the BetFair exchange works is that odds are generated based on who's betting on what, meaning massive margins for change as pre-election events unfold.
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00:00Our two most popular markets are most seats, which Labour absolutely dominate at the minute.
00:07They're as short as 1 to 33 to win the most seats at the next election, which is roughly
00:11around a 97% chance.
00:14And then another popular market of ours is the overall majority market.
00:18Around ยฃ3.6 million has been staked on that one market alone, of which 72% of that money
00:25has been in favour of Sir Keir Starmer's party.
00:29They are the overwhelming favourites to win an overall majority at 1 to 11, which gives
00:35them about a 92% chance.
00:37So punters really, really favouring Labour in this general election.
00:43But then we do have a whole host of other markets available, such as how many seats
00:47will the Conservatives lose at the upcoming general election?
00:51And looking at that market, it's not good reading for Rishi Sunak.
00:56Around 201 or more seat losses is the overwhelming favourite, at a short odds of 1 to 3.
01:03So not looking good for the Prime Minister at the minute.
01:06Well, that's how the political betting markets are looking for the upcoming general election
01:10at the moment.
01:11But just how much can we rely on the odds to predict the outcome of future events?
01:16The way the Betfair exchange works is that the odds are generated based on who's betting
01:20on what, meaning massive margins for change as pre-election events unfold.
01:24We saw that in the Brexit referendum, where at midnight when the exit poll came out, punters
01:30were saying it was going to be Remain.
01:33However, what we did see were when those votes started to trickle in, punters were really,
01:39really quick to flip those odds and to make it so that Leave would be the favourite.
01:44And ultimately, that was the outcome.
01:46So accuracy and the speed in which these markets react is really, really interesting as well.
01:54As things stand, punters are heavily favouring a Labour majority.