Latest odds on the UK General Election revealed
The way the BetFair exchange works is that odds are generated based on who's betting on what, meaning massive margins for change as pre-election events unfold.
Category
๐
NewsTranscript
00:00Our two most popular markets are most seats, which Labour absolutely dominate at the minute.
00:07They're as short as 1 to 33 to win the most seats at the next election, which is roughly
00:11around a 97% chance.
00:14And then another popular market of ours is the overall majority market.
00:18Around ยฃ3.6 million has been staked on that one market alone, of which 72% of that money
00:25has been in favour of Sir Keir Starmer's party.
00:29They are the overwhelming favourites to win an overall majority at 1 to 11, which gives
00:35them about a 92% chance.
00:37So punters really, really favouring Labour in this general election.
00:43But then we do have a whole host of other markets available, such as how many seats
00:47will the Conservatives lose at the upcoming general election?
00:51And looking at that market, it's not good reading for Rishi Sunak.
00:56Around 201 or more seat losses is the overwhelming favourite, at a short odds of 1 to 3.
01:03So not looking good for the Prime Minister at the minute.
01:06Well, that's how the political betting markets are looking for the upcoming general election
01:10at the moment.
01:11But just how much can we rely on the odds to predict the outcome of future events?
01:16The way the Betfair exchange works is that the odds are generated based on who's betting
01:20on what, meaning massive margins for change as pre-election events unfold.
01:24We saw that in the Brexit referendum, where at midnight when the exit poll came out, punters
01:30were saying it was going to be Remain.
01:33However, what we did see were when those votes started to trickle in, punters were really,
01:39really quick to flip those odds and to make it so that Leave would be the favourite.
01:44And ultimately, that was the outcome.
01:46So accuracy and the speed in which these markets react is really, really interesting as well.
01:54As things stand, punters are heavily favouring a Labour majority.