Counting Day Chaos: Market Reaction And Prediction Insights Unveiled | NDTV Profit
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00:00Ashok Malik also joining in. Ashok Malik, pleasure to speak with you.
00:04After a while and on a very important day, not just for the markets but for anyone watching India,
00:11all over the world and of course people who have voted in large numbers in these elections.
00:17How do you see the numbers so far, which most polls seem to have gotten terribly wrong?
00:24Absolutely. When we heard the exit poll numbers, it was clear that there was a bit of fraud.
00:32However, what markets and investors and stakeholders were looking forward to was two things.
00:39One, would Mr. Modi's government get re-elected with an NDA majority?
00:44And second, would the BJP itself cross 272 and win a majority?
00:49Everything else is noise, to be honest.
00:51Right now, the BJP's individual majority is still up in the air.
00:57These are early trends. Numbers will consolidate.
01:00In any election counting, the winner tends to have votes crystallizing towards him or her.
01:09This is true at the constituency level and overall.
01:11Nevertheless, for the BJP to touch 272 looks a bit of a fight now.
01:16And that will be the one number which people will watch out for
01:20because it makes a very big difference in terms of perceptions.
01:23Having said that, Mr. Modi is likely to come back as Prime Minister with an NDA majority government
01:31but he will face a Lok Sabha which is much more competitive.
01:37Key economic legislations will now have to be negotiated.
01:41They cannot be pushed through.
01:43So it will be a very different economic and policy landscape.
01:48So I'm looking at the Election Commission website where they have given 542 or 543 leads.
01:55Remember, Election Commission puts out this data with a lag.
01:57But it is the most accurate data that you can get.
02:00And the Election Commission website is giving Bharatiya Janata Party 236 leads out of 237 total.
02:10So 237 is total because one seat has been won.
02:13So that is the pace at which leads will convert to wins.
02:16Just to take that point of Ashok Malik ahead.
02:19Amitabh, let me come to you with that question because that is something that everyone wants to know.
02:23Is this the final picture? Close to the final picture?
02:25Can the final picture be dramatically different from what we are seeing right now or just marginally?
02:31I think we are in 6th or 7th round as of now.
02:36And on an average, we'll have some 20 to 24 rounds depending upon the size of the seats.
02:41The picture, will it change dramatically? I don't think it is going to change dramatically.
02:46But the number, as Ashokji has said, is still up in the air.
02:51Now, we are looking at whether the BJP gets a simple majority on its own or the NDA gets a simple majority.
03:00I think these two numbers will have to be keenly watched now.
03:06The numbers seem to be now gravitating towards the stress case for the BJP,
03:12which many analysts and commentators were discussing.
03:17You are going to have to speak louder, Amitabh.
03:20We have to hear you over all of that newsroom noise.
03:25What I understood is that the picture is not going to change dramatically from here.
03:29No, it's not going to change dramatically from here.
03:31But still, the key numbers for the BJP will be 282 to 272 and for the NDA, that number.
03:37So, whether BJP reaches closer to 272 or breaches on its own is what will be keenly watched now in the 2.5 to 3 hours.
03:48So, you're saying BJP at 272 is still a possibility?
03:52Still a possibility. It is still a possibility. We'll have to wait and see.
03:58However, it's not a very optimistic possibility at this point of time.
04:02Pankhudi Patak is joining us now, Spokesperson, Congress.
04:05Pankhudi, hi. Tamanna here. Good to speak to you after a while.
04:08Tell us, what do you think has worked?
04:12Because undoubtedly, India Alliance's performance has been better than what is expected.
04:16Though, from what we're seeing right now, the NDA has still crossed the halfway mark.
04:21So, you have a stronger political presence.
04:25But we're looking at a third term of the NDA very clearly, isn't it?
04:29Well, from the kind of feedback that we have got from the ground, we're still expecting that the numbers are going to go up and we'll be forming the government.
04:39We have been continuously saying that what the media has been projecting and what the polls have been projecting is not the real picture.
04:48There was a huge discontent against the BJP government on the ground.
04:52People were feeling very disillusioned. Price rise and unemployment have been very real.
04:57And I think this sense that the BJP had got very arrogant.
05:01And the kind of statements that came from BJP leaders that we'll change the constitution in case we get more than 400 states.
05:10I think people in India, they took it upon themselves to save democracy, to save the constitution.
05:18And also to teach a lesson to a very arrogant BJP.
05:21Because they had this entire narrative that there is nobody who can defeat the BJP.
05:30I think the way the PM went on with campaigning, the way he kept on trying to demonize the Congress,
05:38he kept on trying to target the Congress without being able to give any kind of positive agenda for the country.
05:47Sure. But Pankhuri, can I ask you just a couple of things?
05:49You said that you're still hoping the numbers move in your favor.
05:53Now, best case scenario, Congress right now at 95.
05:56Best case scenario, even with more votes and leads would be what, four or five seats more.
06:02How do you see the claim that you will form the next government if the NDA has crossed the halfway mark comfortably?
06:11Because the BJP number is under the 272 mark, but the NDA by itself has crossed the halfway mark and is close to 300.
06:18So in that case, what would you have to do or how could you really form the government?
06:24These are not the final results. The counting is still going on.
06:29And we are very confident that the picture is going to change and the BJP number is going to go down.
06:36We are very confident of that.
06:37And then, you know, like this, they never say no.
06:40You don't know what happens in politics.
06:42And we know a lot of, you know, I think I'll not say much, but the picture is going to change.
06:47I think there are a lot of surprises that are out there for the BJP as well.
06:51They have taken people of India for granted.
06:54They have taken their allies for granted.
06:56And now the people are excited to give it back to them.
06:59OK, I should put that question to Gopal Krishna Agarwal.
07:02Let's get both of them in a two-window.
07:04Let me put that across to Gopal Krishna Agarwal of the BJP joining us today.
07:07Mr. Agarwal, thank you for speaking with us.
07:09And great to speak to you as well after a long time.
07:11But on a day which is, I'm sure, a bit of a disappointment for you,
07:16that the BJP has fallen short not only of its own goals set,
07:22Charso Par for NDA now is seeming like really yesterday's story,
07:26but also of the 272 mark.
07:28What do you think has gone wrong?
07:34I think still we have to wait and see the final outcome.
07:39But the best part at this point of time will be that the Congress,
07:43particularly Pankhudi ji, agrees that democracy is alive and vibrant in the country.
07:49And they don't question our democratic institutions about their impartialities.
07:55And at the same time, they should also tell
08:00why they were indulging in such narratives,
08:04which are not conducive to the strong nation.
08:08Do they accept that India's GDP is growing at 8.2%
08:13and is an outlier across the globe,
08:16where most of the countries post-COVID are finding it difficult
08:23and getting under recession?
08:26We are attracting the highest FDI.
08:29The infrastructure construction is very good.
08:32And sectors like space technology, artificial intelligence, digital economy,
08:38they have performed exemplary in the last 10 years.
08:42So our economy is good.
08:45Our pride in the global...
08:47Absolutely, Gopal Krishna Agarwal, I agree with you.
08:50Our economy is strong. India's inheritance strength is there.
08:54Can I please ask you the question which I asked you before?
08:57What do you think has gone wrong for the BJP?
09:00Because if I compare with 2019, at this time of the day,
09:03the picture was very clear.
09:05Even if you think that these are not the final numbers,
09:08would you agree that this is a closer fight than you expected?
09:15Yes, this is a closer fight.
09:17There is no question that this is a closer fight.
09:20But still, we have to wait for the final outcome.
09:23When you see how Odisha, we are performing,
09:26even Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh.
09:28So the Congress has to answer more about South.
09:32They were talking about divisive forces.
09:34I'm glad you asked me about Andhra Pradesh.
09:37I'm glad you asked me about Andhra Pradesh.
09:39Because I want to ask you exactly this.
09:42Does Chandrababu Naidu...
09:44And Odisha.
09:45No, no, I'm asking about Andhra Pradesh and Bihar.
09:47Because do Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar
09:50become very, very important right now to the BJP?
09:54They are important players in the NDA alliance.
09:57And unlike the 2019 result,
10:00the allies become crucial.
10:07Surely, before going into this election,
10:11we went all out to expand the NDA fold.
10:15We have almost more than 30 allies.
10:18So it's a big party.
10:20We wanted that all people who are conducive
10:24and who work for the development of the country,
10:27who work towards a strong nation,
10:29who have a vision of a strong nation.
10:32India is a strong nation.
10:34So they should come together in one umbrella.
10:37It has been a very important step before the election also.
10:41And I also want to quote here
10:43that Chandrababu Naidu himself
10:46was one of the most underrated chief ministers the country had.
10:50He was a visionary.
10:52That's true.
10:53But he's been in political wilderness for five years.
10:57He's been in political wilderness for five years.
10:59And now this is his big comeback, one way or the other.
11:01Pankhuri Pathak, just last question to you very quickly.
11:04If the numbers end up close to what we're seeing on the screen right now,
11:07there is a chance that some of the MPs on the India alliance side
11:11will need to be shipped to resorts, you think?
11:17Well, I think that can happen both ways.
11:19Oh.
11:20So I think we need to wait for the results
11:22because the party that was until yesterday,
11:25they were claiming that they'll be getting more than 400 seats
11:29on Modiji's face.
11:31Today, they have to depend on their allies to form a government.
11:34So BJP has been given a fitting reply for their arrogance
11:38and for basically taking the people of this country for granted.
11:43And we all know that the playing field was totally unequal in these elections.
11:48In spite of that, the kind of response that the public has given...
11:51Pankhuri, you can't say that today.
11:53You can't say that today.
11:54The whole EVM story and election commission story...
11:57I am not talking about EVM.
11:59The fizz goes out of it.
12:00I am not talking.
12:01We were seeing the...
12:03No, no, no, no.
12:04Let me complete.
12:05The Congress was contesting against the richest party in the entire world.
12:10Okay, we'll wrap it there.
12:11We'll wrap it there.
12:12We'll wrap it there with Gopal Krishna Agarwal and Pankhuri Pathak.
12:16But I want to take one view from Ashok Malik before we close this
12:19and we go back to our Don't Stop Marcus coverage.
12:21Ashok Malik, the role of regional leaders,
12:24whether it is, of course, like I said, Chandra Babu Naidu, Nitish Kumar,
12:29let's talk about Mamata Banerjee,
12:31who has held off and held her own in West Bengal today.
12:37They rise again back to very...
12:40I mean, I would say greater prominence in the national political stage.
12:44Yeah, certainly.
12:45And if you look at policymaking and legislation, to be honest with you,
12:49it will now have to go back to a much more layered negotiation in parliament.
12:54Parliamentary committees, for instance,
12:56which have become less than optimally functioned in the past few years
13:00because of a majority government,
13:02and this could happen with any majority government, BJP, Congress,
13:04whichever party, they will, again, become more important as platforms
13:10for negotiating legislation even before it is actually passed.
13:14We are looking at a more layered and more constructive mechanism
13:19of policymaking and, I would say, legislation shaping,
13:24which, in a sense, is not a bad thing
13:26because it means that legislations will be less contested once they are passed
13:32and there will be a greater buy-in.
13:34Because I think all parties need to remember
13:36that there are still great strengths in the Indian economy,
13:39but these strengths can only kick in and only be optimized
13:43if, frankly, the union government and states work together
13:46and if parliament acts in unison.
13:49So, in that sense, I remain optimistic.
13:52Could we expect...
13:54It could help if the BJP won the majority.
13:56Could we expect, Ashok Malik,
13:59a policy move towards, I don't want to say freebies,
14:04but more populist schemes because of the messaging
14:08or because of the response from, say, Uttar Pradesh or Maharashtra,
14:12rural economy, etc., will be more in focus?
14:16I don't want to jump to conclusions about the reasons for the setback in UP
14:21if there indeed is a setback at these numbers hold
14:24because let's not jump to instant conclusions.
14:27To be fair, freebies and populism has not been Mr. Modi's style
14:32even when he's faced tough challenges.
14:35I think what this means is that the current welfare architecture
14:39certainly cannot be rolled back.
14:41No party will roll it back.
14:43That had to become the baseline.
14:45We are looking at competitive elections in Maharashtra and Haryana
14:51later this year where there will certainly be pressure
14:54from those parties seeking to capture power to resort to some of this populism.
14:59The NDA will have to respond.
15:02So, yes, while that risk certainly is there,
15:08I think it also means the ruling party at the center,
15:13at the union government, will have to reach out to the opposition
15:16for a structured conversation.
15:18There is an opportunity for that.
15:20I hope that is not disregarded.
15:24Right. Just last word from you, Amitabh Tiwari,
15:27on where are you seeing the BJP seed ground
15:31and where are you seeing them gain ground?
15:33Because remember, our conversations always were about
15:36there would be some attrition expected
15:38when you've hit your peak in certain states and seats
15:41and then you make up from others.
15:43Do you think that's the balance that has gone a little off
15:45where the attrition has come in
15:47but they haven't made up as much ground as was expected?
15:51Yeah, clearly the attrition has come in
15:55and from unexpected quarters like Uttar Pradesh,
15:58which is party stronghold, and the Ram Mandir movement.
16:01I mean, it is the epicenter of the Ram Mandir inauguration and the movement.
16:05And also the gains which were expected to come in West Bengal
16:09is not happening.
16:10I think the gains only are coming largely from Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.
16:15And if you remove this 21 number of the TDP,
16:18then it becomes very clear that the alliance with the TDP
16:23could become the game changer in this election
16:27because that is what is the difference between the simple majority
16:30and the actual value of the NDA.
16:33We might be heading back to a coalition era
16:35and as Ashokji has said,
16:37we will see more constructive discussions from all the regional parties
16:44and their role in the policy framework going forward.
16:48That's the thing about Indian politics and Indian democracy I would say.
16:52You can never take the Indian voter for granted for sure.
16:56You can never be sure of what is going to happen
16:59and everyone thought they'd seen the back of coalition politics
17:02but that's what Amitabh Tiwari is saying
17:04that we may be going back into that era after 10 years.
17:07Well, picture abhi baaki hai.