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00:00 >> We've got a full slate on this Tuesday around the Diamond
00:06 and Major League Baseball and we break it down here on the
00:09 early line. He is Donnie. I am bad. We start tonight in
00:13 Philadelphia with the Phil's a minus 168 home money line
00:17 favorite trying to win two straight against the Milwaukee
00:20 Brewers over under at 8 and a half yesterday. Of course,
00:24 David Dahl in his Philly debut a home run and another run
00:28 scored as the Phil's spoiled the return of Reese Hoskins
00:32 despite his solo shot as well with a 3-1 victory. What do you
00:37 anticipate tonight? DRS in game number two of this midweek set.
00:42 >> Yeah, odds predicted as well as I think it's another
00:44 Philadelphia Phillies victory. They have the better starting
00:46 pitcher on the mound tonight and that should play out.
00:48 Sanchez has been very good, but let's also take a look at what
00:50 we're going to see out of the Milwaukee Brewers. Looks like
00:52 Koenig's going to be the opener tonight because I'm looking at
00:55 his statistics throughout the Major League Baseball season.
00:57 Typically been going anywhere between two thirds of an inning
01:00 to one and two thirds of an inning here. So open up as the
01:02 left-hander here to try to take care of Kyle Schwarber and also
01:06 Bryce Harper right out of the gate and he should give way to
01:08 Colin Ray who was really struggled with left-handed pit
01:12 left-handed batters. Excuse me is a right-handed pitcher. So
01:14 that does make some sense. If you're focused on Colin Ray,
01:16 who is a right-handed pitcher 255 ISO 395 weighted on base
01:20 percentage over his last month in Major League Baseball against
01:23 lefties. Why is that going to be an issue Kyle Schwarber against
01:26 right-handed pitching over the past month to 19 ISO 447 weighted
01:30 on base percentage Bryce Harper 263 ISO and a 349 weighted on
01:34 base percentage. Also some other guys in a lot of Nick
01:36 Castellanos and a bundle Sosa very good numbers against right
01:40 handed pitching over the past month Philly should be able to
01:42 win this ball game tonight. You just got to wait it out. Maybe
01:45 and that first inning until the opener clears and you get to
01:47 Colin Ray.
01:48 Three games set between these two. So one more game tomorrow
01:52 off day for Milwaukee on Thursday believe the same for
01:56 Philadelphia. Now we go to Houston. Where is the fork the
02:01 Astros nearly a dollar and a half favorite tonight as they
02:04 host the st. Louis Cardinals for the second game of this midweek
02:07 set over under his nine Spencer Arrighetti was not necessarily
02:11 the most stellar starter for Houston to begin this year. But
02:15 as of late has been better for the Stroh's is it two straight
02:18 victories for Houston tonight in H town.
02:22 It's taking a look at some of the numbers here. Polante should
02:24 be the starter not a lot here on the Major League Baseball
02:26 season only 71 batters he's faced in the past 30 days only
02:29 22. But of those 22 how about this combining for lefty and
02:33 righty split here a 0 ISO and a 215 weighted on base percentage
02:36 that should help you out. Why because the middle that lineup
02:39 here is juicy for the Houston Astros Kyle Tucker Jordan
02:42 Alvarez and Alec Bregman. Now keep an eye tonight. Kyle
02:45 Tucker one of the hottest hitters in Major League Baseball
02:47 yesterday in his first appearance got a base hit in his
02:50 second appearance fouled a ball off his leg and had to leave
02:53 the ball game because he's had 76 about against right handed
02:56 pitching over the past 30 days with a 559 ISO and a 563 weighted
03:01 on base percentage some other guys really hitting right hand
03:03 to pitching and that lineup is Jordan Alvarez 279 ISO power
03:06 number and Alex Bregman at a 324 over the past month. You flip
03:10 it over to St. Louis. You take a look at Spencer Arrighetti
03:12 who's been much better as he was to start the Major League
03:15 Baseball season. Get a couple guys in the middle of that lineup
03:17 here hitting right handed pitching fairly well for the
03:19 Cardinals and that's Burleson Goldschmidt and Gorman. If
03:22 you're looking for RBI props, those guys should be on your
03:24 card as well as the middle of the lineup for the Houston
03:26 Astros tonight, but that price point here. I don't know if I
03:29 want to pay that for the Houston Astros here. So we'll
03:31 just go with some runs. How about that? TBD for Toronto as
03:36 well who the starter is tonight for the Blue Jays hosting the
03:39 Orioles for a second consecutive day, but we know who is
03:42 starting for Baltimore. That's Corbin Burns on the bump in the
03:45 O's a road favorite in the six once again - 168 total is eight
03:50 and a half Baltimore victorious yesterday. 72 in a big way
03:55 behind two home runs from Austin Hayes against the Jays.
03:58 What do we see here in day number two in Toronto? He
04:02 always tough to handicap against a pitcher. You're not
04:03 sure he's going to be on the mound, but early indicators
04:06 show Bowdoin Francis 68 batters on the season at 250 ice on a
04:09 405 weighted on base percentage, but nothing over
04:12 the past 30 days in Major League Baseball and you take a
04:15 look at that lineup here. If you have an iffy pitcher on the
04:17 mound going up against the Orioles, it usually doesn't
04:19 work out in your favor, but I'll tell you what usually
04:21 doesn't work out in your favor even more than that. It's when
04:23 an ace is on the mound facing your team, which is Corbin
04:26 Burns, who's been absolutely electric over the past 30 days
04:29 and also throughout the entirety of the Major League
04:31 Baseball season looks like we're going to get a victory
04:33 here for the Orioles. Yeah. So as we keep it rolling around
04:37 Major League Baseball a battle for the top of the American
04:41 League Central. Yes, you heard that right tonight in
04:43 Cleveland. It's the Guardians and the Royals - 120 for
04:48 Cleveland as a slight home favorite, but then you have
04:51 Seth Lugo on the other side for KC with the Royals booked as
04:56 an underdog. What happens here between the two best teams in
04:59 the AL Central? Yeah, Royals booked as an underdog, but more
05:03 of an underplay for me. Tristan McKenzie, who's one of those
05:06 guys which has a terrible like X-Fit minus numbers should be
05:08 able to get hit around. He's been escaping those and if you
05:11 take a look at it came against right-handed batters
05:13 through phase 68 of them over the past 30 days. That number
05:16 is high to 236 weighted on base for excuse me, 236 ISO and a
05:19 348 weighted on base percentage. You know, you're
05:22 looking at from the right side here tonight's going to be
05:23 Bobby with Junior 227 ISO power number. Let's flip it over to
05:27 the other side. Seth Lugo has been absolutely incredible for
05:30 the Kansas City Royals last 30 days 119 ISO weighted on base
05:34 percentage of 263 just to put that in a capsule of this
05:37 entire season 313 batters a 121 ISO and a weighted on base
05:42 percentage of 266. This isn't just a pitcher getting hot over
05:45 the past couple starts. He's been fantastic over the first
05:48 couple months of the season. Now taking a look at right-handed
05:50 pitchers going up against the Cleveland Guardians. We have a
05:53 very good record and also a very good track record of hitting
05:55 right-handed pitchers particularly over the last 30
05:58 days. Look at the middle of this lineup Ramirez Naylor and
06:00 Fry 439 328 and 207 ISO power numbers consecutively there.
06:05 That's probably where your power source is going to come
06:08 from. But having said that and looking at both of these
06:10 lineups both of these pitchers are probably still would mean
06:12 to the under between this game and the Guardians and the
06:14 Royals. Really made sense 9 and 1 the record this year for
06:18 Seth Lugo. The ERA is 1.72 second best ERA at this moment
06:23 for qualified starters in Major League Baseball. Those nine
06:27 wins tied for the most in the bigs as well. He's made 12
06:30 starts this year for KC the Royals 9 and 3 in those 12
06:35 games. I do love a plus money price when Seth Lugo is on the
06:39 bump for Kansas City when this certain starter was on the
06:42 bump up in the Bronx. It used to be our favorite day here on
06:46 the early line. Now, it's just another Tuesday. Louise Heal
06:49 gets the start for the Yankees. He has been sensational this
06:52 season and his debut year for the Pinstripes. They're a minus
06:56 180 favorite against the Minnesota Twins total at eight
06:59 tonight inside Yankee Stadium longest active win streak
07:03 currently in the bigs that belongs to the Yankees five in
07:07 a row. Will it be six straight in the 43rd win of the year for
07:10 New York? I think it should be six straight and also you take
07:13 a look at some of these guys in the Yankee lineup and Ben maybe
07:15 when you were running around middle school yelling crank
07:18 that soldier boy. Whoo. Two guys in the lineup today for the
07:21 New York Yankees. You are not going to want to miss because
07:23 Bailey over check out these splits. Fifty-seven batters
07:26 he's faced over the last month against right-handed batters. A
07:29 283 power number awaited on base percentage of 388 for the
07:33 season. A hundred and twenty-five right-handed
07:36 batters a 254 ISO and a 354 weighted on base percentage.
07:40 Look at these numbers right-handed batters in the
07:41 lineup today. Aaron Judge 88 at bats. This doesn't it doesn't
07:45 compute. It doesn't make sense. A 603 ISO power number and a 603
07:51 weighted on base percentage. I've never seen statistics that
07:54 higher here and then you throw in and say, well, what's Jim
07:56 Carlos Stanton been doing? 358 ISO 412 weighted on base
08:01 percentage. Get the launch pad going because today's thing or
08:04 Tuesday and both of those guys. Oh, great shots to rock one
08:08 into the seats tonight. Forget about handicapping the game.
08:10 Don't look any further. Judge and Stanton. Whoo boy tonight.
08:14 Watch out. Great breakdown DRS. Everything was fantastic there
08:18 but what was the crank that soldier boy reference? Crank
08:22 and blast. Crank. Baseballs into the seats. Crank that.
08:26 Oh, yeah. Okay. Boom. Come on now. That's pretty good. That's
08:31 pretty. Yeah, you know Superman that. Exactly. A word we can't
08:34 say. Yeah. Here on this network. Six starts. It's up in trouble
08:37 Ben. Don't get yourself in trouble. It's like Saint John's
08:40 baseball back in my car. Don't say six stars for Louise Hill by
08:44 the way in the month of May. He won all six. He allowed only
08:48 three earned in those six starts in total. The rookie for New
08:52 York is seven and one with a 199 ERA. I think I'm seeing this
08:58 correctly. He has a neck tattoo like right here over the Adams
09:01 Apple for our guy Louise Hill. Don't call him Lucas.
09:05 Interesting stuff. We'll preview a game in Arlington.
09:08 Game number two of the set between the Tigers and the
09:11 Rangers and a few more Major League Baseball thoughts on the
09:14 other side of the break. Yesterday, a two one final in
09:18 Arlington between the Tigers and the Rangers courtesy of the
09:21 Texas kid Jake Rogers, the native of Canyon, Texas back in
09:26 his home Lone Star State to solo shots for Detroit. They knock
09:30 off Texas two to one virtual pick them once again. Yesterday
09:34 was an actual pick up with Scooble on the bunk for Detroit.
09:37 He evolved the on the other side for Texas minus 108 on both
09:41 sides. Donnie now it's minus 110 for Detroit minus 106 for
09:45 Texas. A second consecutive pick them in this Texas tuckle
09:49 Texas tussle who gets the victory. Detroit baseball. We're
09:56 going with him again on day number two. Watch Jack Flaherty
09:58 here. Take a look at the walk percentage against him. 118
10:01 batters only 4.2%. Couple that with a 34% strikeout rate. That
10:06 is absolutely incredible and I still power number of 177,
10:09 which is right about on the margin, but a 291 weighted on
10:12 base percentage. I like the matchup here for Flaherty going
10:15 up against that lineup here for the Rangers who quite frankly
10:18 only three guys here and if you can just walk Corey Seager, you
10:23 should be home here and the reason why I say that against
10:25 right-handed pitching here over the past 30 days Seager's up
10:28 there with Aaron Judge 55 at bats a 636 ISO power number and
10:32 a weighted on base percentage of 589. He shouldn't see anything
10:36 to hit tonight if they are smart. Now, if we flip it over
10:38 the other side, they Donnie just your average Major League
10:40 baseball pitcher against your average lineup for the Tigers.
10:44 So I lean towards the Tigers in this game, but we might just be
10:46 looking at an under when it's all said and done, but we'll
10:49 roll Detroit again. Could we see an under at PNC Park in
10:54 Pittsburgh? Pretty good pitching matchup on paper. The rookie
10:57 starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates not Paul Skeens more
11:00 than likely. He comes tomorrow. Jared Jones on the bump for the
11:03 buck goes today against the ace for LA that being the Dodgers
11:07 Tyler Glass now gets the start. The Dodgers a hefty road
11:11 favorite as we would expect them to be the over under at seven
11:15 and a hook. What do you like tonight in Pittsburgh? Jared
11:18 Jones very good against right-handed batters this
11:20 season been particular over the past 30 days 54 of those batters
11:23 he's faced. How about this 125 ISO power number 249 weighted on
11:27 base percentage, but how about this flip it over to lefties?
11:30 It's not the same situation. The right-handed Jones a 333 ISO
11:35 and a weighted on base percentage of 483 against those
11:38 lefties here over the past month. You know who those two
11:40 guys in the lineup that are going to do damage tonight.
11:42 It's Otani and Freeman back-to-back 73 at bats and 75
11:46 but bats respectively against right-handed pitching over the
11:48 past month 254 ISO 273 ISO high weighted on base percentages for
11:53 sure. So I would it's a high number to take with the Dodgers.
11:57 I do think they get the job done. But if you just look at
11:59 the focus here, maybe some RBI props and hitter props here
12:02 right between Otani and Freeman. They should make some sense
12:04 for cash tonight. Tonight a Boston battle in Fenway total is
12:09 8 the Atlanta Braves a road favorite with Max Fried on the
12:13 bump - 164 in favor of Atlanta on the other side. It's
12:17 Cutter Crawford for the Red Sox the home underdog what gives
12:21 tonight in this Boston battle. I'll tell you what you take a
12:25 look at Max Fried here and this is sort of like a symbolism
12:27 here for the Atlanta Braves in this 2024 season, at least as
12:30 of late not really doing much damage at the plate, but having
12:33 some great pitching performances on the mound. Take a look at
12:35 Max Fried last 133 Batters. He's faced ISO power number. Oh
12:39 66 weighted on base percentage 235. That's spectacular and
12:43 also going up against the Red Sox team. I typically like the
12:45 back with a few guys with RBI props, but they have not hit
12:49 left-handed pitching all that well over the past month
12:51 refs night or 167 ISO Raffaella a 200 ISO. Everybody else is
12:56 below the Mendoza line here for what you like to look forward
12:59 to. So I think those Atlanta bats are simply those Atlanta
13:01 pitchers will cool those Boston bats down Cutter Crawford on
13:04 the other side hasn't pitched very well the past 30 days
13:07 looking at the last 121 batters. He's faced a 178 ISO, which
13:11 is slightly above average, but a 344 weighted on base percentage
13:15 but the problem is I keep pointing out is we haven't had
13:17 that offensive explosion just yet for the Atlanta Braves and
13:20 we're waiting on here. Oh Zuna Olsen. Kelenic do make sense
13:23 in that lineup, but even with 68 degree temperatures, which
13:26 isn't that heated up in Boston and a wind at 7 miles an hour,
13:30 but really a right to left. We're probably playing this
13:32 game into an under but I do like the Atlanta Braves and I
13:35 think they have the better picture on the mound and I think
13:37 their lineup should be able to hit Cutter Crawford will go
13:39 with the Braves.
13:40 So a great stat on how the Red Sox have been frankly mediocre
13:44 pretty much at every station of this MLB season. They have
13:48 been in even 500. That's where the Sox enter tonight 30 and
13:52 30 after 60 games. These two teams two of the five highest
13:56 under percentages in all of Major League Baseball Boston
14:00 under and 56.4% of their games Atlanta under in more than
14:06 60 despite the Braves playing to some recent overs in the
14:09 Sox over in five of their last seven games next up on our
14:13 Major League Baseball countdown on this Tuesday. We go out
14:17 to the desert the divisional duel for a second consecutive
14:19 day the Diamondbacks win the opener yesterday over the
14:22 Giants. Now, it's minus 116 in favor of Arizona against
14:26 San Francisco tonight total of nine the desert duel who gets
14:30 a win.
14:30 It's going to be a tough one here because Harrison's not a
14:33 great pitcher does struggle a little bit against right-handed
14:35 batters. We'll get to that in a second. But looking at Blake
14:37 Walsh and the left-handed pitcher only 37 batters. He's
14:40 faced on the season. I saw 032 weighted on base percentage
14:43 291 not a lot to go off of there. However, against
14:46 left-handed pitching the San Francisco Giants have really
14:48 excelled over the past month Ramos 421 ISO power number
14:52 Estrada 333 Chapman 389 Matos 286 and Schmidt 375 that might
14:58 tell you we might be getting a little bit of offense here
15:00 for San Francisco depending on how long Walston goes for but
15:03 flip it over to Kyle Harrison another left-handed pitcher
15:05 struggling with right-handed batters. There's two guys in
15:08 this lineup. I would take a look at if you're looking at
15:10 an RBI and or maybe some base prospects here. That's
15:13 Keitel Marte 44 at bats against left-handed pitching over
15:16 the past month. How about this better 475 ISO and a 440
15:19 weighted on base percentage Christian Walker 250 ISO
15:22 power number 335 weighted on base percentage. However,
15:25 the RBI prop sometimes a little bit tougher for Walker
15:28 a 38% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. Nothing
15:31 can be more frustrating when you just need to put the ball
15:34 in play to get an RBI and they strike out. So the best
15:36 batter in this lineup and maybe the game probably Keitel
15:39 Marte look for him to do some damage at the leadoff spot.
15:42 We've got a couple of intriguing either interstate
15:46 or intercity interleague affairs tonight, including one
15:50 in Florida between the Marlins and the Rays quickly here
15:53 DRS Tampa a road favorite in South Florida against Miami
15:57 minus 122. Now the updated number on the money line.
16:00 Yeah, again, if you're taking a look at a bad baseball
16:03 team, which is Miami going up against Pepeo who does
16:05 have some decent splits against right-handed batters.
16:08 He's a right-handed pitcher, but the lefties they're
16:09 getting to him with 273 ISO power number and a 347
16:13 weighted on base percentage some lefties in the lineup
16:15 tonight. That might make sense. Nick Gordon due to bat
16:17 six, but more importantly, Janice Chisholm leadoff batter
16:20 77 bats against right-handed pitching 247 ISO 371 weighted
16:24 on base percentage. You should get some base hits maybe
16:26 an RBI and score some runs tonight.
16:28 Another breakdown in Major League Baseball coming your
16:31 way and then that best bet from OKC up next.
16:35 To the north side of Chicago. We go for the inner city
16:41 showdown between the White Sox and the Cubbies tonight
16:44 show to Iminaga on the bump for the Cubs when he's on
16:48 the mound for Chicago things have often been pretty good
16:51 except for last week when we preview that game for
16:55 Iminaga - 300 is the number in favor of the Cubs tonight.
16:59 Why? Well again, even I'll get to the start but the
17:02 White Sox the worst team in Major League Baseball have
17:04 also lost 11 consecutive games. So what will we see
17:08 tonight inside the friendly confines? I got to tell you
17:11 like Iminaga has been an unbelievable pitcher, but
17:13 you're right about that. Usually it's like, okay, I
17:15 would lay 300 on a pitcher that's had like, I don't
17:17 know seven straight shutouts here. Not a game where
17:19 he got absolutely imploded. So now you come on to that
17:22 mound maybe a little bit of second thoughts. You have
17:24 some pretty good hitters in the lineup tonight for
17:26 the Chicago White Sox who have done well against
17:28 lefties over the past month. That's Pham, Jolts, Sheets
17:31 and Mendick here. We'll see if they can make a
17:32 difference. And also when you flip it over to the
17:34 other side Chris Flexon, who is your average Major
17:37 League Baseball pitcher here? Okay between lefties.
17:40 Okay between righties here, but for the season lefties
17:42 have really gotten the best of me. Take a look at
17:44 Mike Taukman to lead off that lineup. Cody Bellinger
17:46 always pops up here eating app who is a switch hitter
17:49 who will back from the left-hand side tonight. The
17:50 Cubs are the better team, but that price point is
17:53 ridiculous. And if you said Donnie, you have to take
17:54 one bet on this game that had to be a side. Certainly
17:57 not going to be the Cubs at a minus 300 price. I'll
18:00 take the dog price on Chicago. Then also keep in
18:02 mind at Wrigley Field some rain in the forecast
18:04 with winds blowing out double digits to left field.
18:07 We possibly could see runs and that nine even though
18:09 Iminaga has been so dominant, maybe a little shaky
18:12 at that last start. I think we get some runs tonight.
18:14 Listen plus one and a half for the away team on the
18:18 run line. There is some sense there. It's plus 118
18:22 sometime that 11 game losing skid has to end for
18:26 the White Sox. Could it be tonight a couple of other
18:30 updates from yesterday around Major League Baseball
18:32 the Mets had a lead in the eighth inning and into
18:34 the ninth that they held on to game number two
18:37 tonight in the nation's capital between the Mets
18:39 and the Nationals New York a road favorite at minus
18:42 120. We also shared that we were looking at a game
18:45 yesterday in Anaheim the Southern California contest
18:48 between the Angels and the Padres the Halos take
18:52 game one tonight. It's a pick them between San Diego
18:55 and LA Adam Azur gets the start the former Iowa
18:58 Hawkeye the second round pick for the pods just a
19:01 couple of years ago. The RS anything else you like
19:05 around Major League Baseball before we get to those
19:07 best bets. Now, it looks like a pretty good night
19:09 across the board. You got some good hitting
19:11 environments of good numbers to stack up on a
19:13 full slate here. So we'll be a very fun night in
19:16 the DRS household. No doubt.
19:18 Yeah.
19:18 (upbeat music)
19:21 [MUSIC]