#imf #inflation #pakistaneconomy #budget2024 #aniqanisar
Mehngai Barhegi ya relief Milega? Aney Wala Budget Kaisa Hoga? Economic Expert Analysis
Mehngai Barhegi ya relief Milega? Aney Wala Budget Kaisa Hoga? Economic Expert Analysis
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 We were talking about the budget.
00:02 Political parties give manifestos and debates but no debate is population centric.
00:09 That is, how to improve the population of Pakistan.
00:14 Budget debate is not more important than political point scoring.
00:18 And this has become the biggest dilemma.
00:20 I have already put statistics in front of you that
00:22 out of Pakistan's approximately 25 crore population,
00:25 6 crore people are below the poverty line.
00:28 And on average, people who earn around Rs. 36,700 per month.
00:37 Dr. Farooq Saleem is with us.
00:40 Thank you very much for joining me in the program.
00:42 Sir, how much is the debt in the budget?
00:45 How much is the trade deficit?
00:47 How to manage the balance of payments?
00:50 All these things have become macroeconomic indicators.
00:52 For a common man, the important thing is
00:55 how is the health, education, growth,
00:59 how much investment will be there in the public sector.
01:03 And ultimately, what our people and rulers do not understand,
01:07 is how difficult it is to manage so many populations in such a small area.
01:12 In South Asia, Pakistan is the country with the least number of forests.
01:17 Because our population is growing so slowly.
01:21 Do you see any government going this way?
01:26 The first thing is that the rest of the government
01:31 can make statements, can run statements,
01:36 but the 18th amendment was passed in 2010.
01:43 14 years have passed.
01:45 All these things that you mentioned,
01:48 whether it is education or health,
01:51 are given to the provinces.
01:53 You will not get this in the budget of the deaths.
01:57 You can get it in the Islamabad budget,
01:59 but all these ministries have been devolved.
02:02 You will definitely see this in the budget of the provinces.
02:07 And those are the political parties, Doctor.
02:09 Across the board, the political parties are ultimately those in the provinces.
02:14 You should definitely ask them,
02:17 that in the budget of the provinces,
02:19 you can allocate resources,
02:22 or you can do it.
02:24 These things are not in the budget of the death.
02:26 These are devolved.
02:28 The real problem is that the power is given to the provinces,
02:33 and the responsibility is on the death.
02:36 I am saying this because the budget of the death,
02:40 in that, this year you will be told that the government of the death,
02:45 will be collecting taxes of 16 trillion rupees,
02:48 of non-tax revenue.
02:50 Now 16 trillion has come in the treasury of the death.
02:53 From there, 6 to 7 trillion,
02:56 according to the law and the constitution,
02:58 according to the 18th amendment,
03:00 according to the national finance award,
03:02 that has to be distributed in the provinces.
03:04 And 10,000 Arabs will go to the provinces.
03:06 So the death is empty.
03:09 Now you have to give pension of 900 Arabs,
03:12 the expense of defense will be of 2000 Arabs,
03:15 there are grants of 1400 Arabs,
03:17 there are subsidies of 1000 Arabs,
03:19 and the pockets of loyalty are already empty.
03:21 So here we have given all the power to the provinces.
03:24 They are sitting, without moving their hands,
03:27 they are given 6,000 Arabs of loyalty,
03:30 under the 18th amendment.
03:33 And they don't have to do any work.
03:35 All the responsibility is of the government of the death.
03:38 So the fundamental point is,
03:40 I think that the budget that Vipak will make,
03:43 with the National Finance Award,
03:46 you will see an air budget.
03:49 So there will be a lot of air figures in it.
03:51 They say that,
03:53 mathematics is the science of quantity.
03:56 So this is not mathematically possible, Anika.
03:59 Okay.
04:00 So if it is not mathematically possible,
04:02 Doctor,
04:03 and because you are talking about devolution,
04:05 we have already put this point in front of the politicians,
04:08 that the PTI is sitting in the National Assembly,
04:10 PMLN is there,
04:11 People's Party is there,
04:12 obviously these are the same parties,
04:14 which are ruling in different provinces,
04:17 the CM is also their ruler.
04:20 In such a situation,
04:21 if there is no possibility,
04:23 and there is no will,
04:24 then such a large population,
04:26 which is continuously increasing,
04:28 what to do about it?
04:29 Are we going to be a nation,
04:31 which will be of illiterate people,
04:33 because even now,
04:35 there are about 6 crore people,
04:37 who are illiterate in Pakistan.
04:40 The term multi-dimension poverty,
04:46 is used,
04:48 in that,
04:49 40-50% of the population of Pakistan,
04:52 is under multi-dimension poverty.
04:55 Meaning, half the population,
04:56 is living below the poverty line.
04:59 The rate at which the population is increasing,
05:02 you can imagine,
05:03 when Pakistan,
05:05 East Pakistan, West Pakistan,
05:07 Bangladesh became East Pakistan,
05:09 at that time,
05:10 the population of Bangladesh was more than us,
05:12 we were 7-8 crore,
05:14 so in the last 30 years,
05:16 we have been living below that,
05:18 and in today's time,
05:19 you can imagine,
05:20 we are now 24-25 crore.
05:22 And the rate at which it is increasing,
05:24 in the next few years,
05:26 it will reach 40 crore.
05:28 So here,
05:29 the birth of the ocean,
05:31 you can imagine,
05:32 everyone needs food,
05:34 everyone needs to eat,
05:36 everyone needs health facilities,
05:39 everyone needs education,
05:41 the welfare system does not have the resources,
05:44 the resources are given to the poor,
05:47 and the poor,
05:48 they are not able to collect any kind of tax on their own.
05:53 If we compare it with India,
05:56 then that 15-16% which becomes the GDP tax ratio,
06:01 in that,
06:02 about 6-7% of the provinces,
06:04 their state governments are collecting it themselves.
06:07 In our country,
06:08 even that 1% of the provinces,
06:10 they do not work,
06:11 they do not collect taxes.
06:13 How to stop the population,
06:15 this is legally in the hands of the provinces,
06:18 the provinces,
06:19 they live in some other mood,
06:21 they are mostly focused on the development of the budget,
06:25 and that development budget,
06:27 you know,
06:28 the MPAs,
06:29 their wishes,
06:30 their programs,
06:31 the infrastructure,
06:32 the bridges,
06:33 the roads,
06:34 their favorite infrastructure projects,
06:36 they are mostly focused on them.
06:38 You are absolutely right, Dr.
06:40 Those people who are legislating,
06:42 who are legislating,
06:43 those people who are building bridges and ponds,
06:46 and building bridges and ponds,
06:48 you are absolutely right that they are not focusing on the development of the budget,
06:53 you are absolutely right that our focus is wrong,
06:58 but now the population is growing,
07:00 according to that,
07:01 the budget,
07:02 the development budget,
07:04 will also have an effect on that,
07:06 right Dr.
07:07 So, is this not a matter of concern?
07:10 I remember,
07:11 Chief Justice Saqib Nisar was also working a lot on the population,
07:15 all these things will ultimately decrease,
07:18 no matter how much we try,
07:20 no matter how much we take loans,
07:22 it will decrease if we don't focus on this.
07:25 Do you think that instead of single pronged strategy,
07:29 we will have to go for multi-pronged strategy to revive the economy, Dr.
07:33 I am absolutely clear in my mind.
07:37 This is not a matter of taxes.
07:40 I think that every Pakistani,
07:43 whether male or female,
07:44 has already been trapped by the tax,
07:48 because in our country,
07:50 60-65% of the population is trapped by the indirect tax.
07:53 So, there is no Pakistani who is not trapped by the tax.
07:57 If you don't have a electricity meter,
07:59 if you don't buy petrol,
08:01 if you don't have a mobile phone,
08:03 then you may not be trapped by the tax.
08:05 Those who have a mobile phone,
08:07 who has a walk-through meter,
08:09 a gas meter,
08:10 who buys petrol,
08:12 they are paying the tax.
08:14 If you look at the old budget of 10-11 years,
08:19 the tax was Rs. 1500 crores.
08:22 And the tax of the last year,
08:25 which is complete,
08:27 is Rs. 9400 crores.
08:29 This means that the tax has increased rapidly in this country.
08:32 In the last 10-11 years,
08:34 from Rs. 1500 crores,
08:35 we have spent Rs. 9500 crores.
08:36 How long will we spend on indirect tax?
08:38 All these are indirect taxes, right?
08:41 Not close to that.
08:42 The problem here is government spending.
08:45 During the same period,
08:47 during which the taxes have reached Rs. 9500 crores,
08:52 the government spending will exceed Rs. 2500 crores,
08:56 this year it will exceed Rs. 20000 crores.
09:00 So, the problem here is to control government spending,
09:04 to reduce it.
09:06 And the slogan that is put up,
09:08 is put up on the axis of taxes.
09:10 And this slogan,
09:12 you can imagine,
09:13 25-30 years ago,
09:15 Ayub Khan used to put up the slogan of increasing taxes and increasing tax net.
09:20 But the tax that is being collected is increasing.
09:25 Government spending is increasing much faster than that.
09:28 So, the focus should be on government spending.
09:30 Ultimately, Doctor,
09:32 what are the few things that the government should do at this time?
09:36 Subahi government included and federal government included.
09:39 If the government gets the budget,
09:40 the rest of the provinces will also give,
09:41 except KPK, which has already presented its budget.
09:45 In your opinion,
09:46 the government should immediately take public issues,
09:49 health, education, growth,
09:51 child mortality rate,
09:53 population,
09:54 water supply,
09:56 housing supply,
09:57 should they take such steps,
10:00 that while you are waiting for the macroeconomic indicators to be positive,
10:04 till then, should they also manage these things?
10:07 I have already presented the budget of the rest of the governments.
10:11 That is empty.
10:12 The few things that you have mentioned,
10:14 they need resources.
10:16 Coming to the provinces.
10:17 According to that,
10:18 the resources should come from the subahi budget.
10:20 And until the provinces are ready to increase their allocation in their budget,
10:26 this matter will not be there.
10:28 Right.
10:30 So, until and unless all the Jamaats will not have a will,
10:33 we will not understand.
10:34 Dr. Farooq Salim.