Dritan Nesho, Founder & CEO at HarrisX, joins "Forbes Newsroom" to react to former President Trump being found guilty on all counts in his NYC hush money trial.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hi, everybody.
00:03 I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News.
00:05 Joining me now is Dritan Nesho, Harris X founder and CEO.
00:10 Dritan, thank you so much for joining me.
00:12 Thanks Brittany.
00:13 Great to be back.
00:14 It is a historic day.
00:16 So I'm really appreciative that you took the time to break this all down with me.
00:21 Former President Donald Trump has been found guilty on all 34 felony counts of falsifying
00:26 business records.
00:27 First of all, what's your reaction to this unprecedented news?
00:31 Well, it's certainly historic.
00:33 He's the first president to also be convicted felon.
00:39 He's not the first candidate to be a convicted felon.
00:42 So I think that as we wait for the dust to settle over the next 24 to 48 hours, we'll
00:49 see whether anything changes in the political dynamic or if it all stays the same.
00:56 But you know, certainly an event that has the potential to upend the dynamic of the
01:02 race and you know, we shall know pretty soon how voters feel about it.
01:09 Before we get to the political impact, I do want to talk more about the trial and the
01:13 verdict.
01:15 Guilty on all counts.
01:16 What sticks out to you when you hear that verdict?
01:19 The jury was out deliberating for about two days.
01:23 And in the trial, what are some of your takeaways?
01:26 Well, the 34 counts are highly correlated with one another.
01:29 Right.
01:30 So this was one of those verdicts or set of verdicts that it was either going to be all
01:38 guilty or, you know, the jury is a hung jury and cannot reach any kind of a consensus.
01:46 Obviously, acquittal was probably the lowest probability scenario out of it.
01:54 But it doesn't surprise me that it's guilty on all 34 counts.
01:59 And you know, it bears remembering that this is the lowest type of possible felony in New
02:06 York state.
02:08 And while there is this shock of the 34 guilty counts that's going to play in the media,
02:14 for sure, it's not like there will be time attached, jail time attached to each of those
02:21 counts.
02:22 It'll probably be up to four years for all of the counts altogether in the harshest possible
02:30 outcome.
02:31 Right.
02:32 In terms of the sentencing that's about to come down on former President Trump.
02:39 So I think it bears in mind that in the grand scheme of things, these types of felonies
02:45 are the lowest kinds of felonies, the types of felonies that it's actually unusual to
02:50 bring such a big public figure in front of a jury for.
02:58 But certainly, you know, this is a political season and there's many different issues that
03:03 are are playing here beyond simply the felony counts.
03:10 But does that matter to voters that he's a convicted felon, but the felonies are low
03:15 is convicted felon?
03:17 Is that title enough to turn enough voters off?
03:22 Well, polling up until now indicates, no, it's not enough.
03:27 And what we have seen in recent polling, as recently as a couple of weeks ago in the recent
03:35 Harvard Harris poll that I've conducted with several colleagues, is that 55 percent of
03:43 Americans think that, you know, Trump committed some kind of misdemeanors and would be found
03:48 guilty.
03:49 Sixty percent on the other side, though, they think that the process is highly politicized
03:55 and they don't like the optics of him being judged in a highly democratic jurisdiction
04:00 like New York or Atlanta, Georgia, right, for some of the other trials that are still
04:06 pending.
04:08 And so the optics here are not the best possible.
04:12 And I would very much expect public opinion to react as you would expect public opinions
04:16 to react.
04:19 Republicans and conservatives will be riled up by the decision and they'll probably rally
04:24 around their candidate.
04:27 Democrats will be ecstatic for the decision and there might be a set event bump for Democrats
04:34 and independents who are in the middle is just another data point that they will weigh.
04:39 But it's not enough to tip them over.
04:43 And when we've asked the question previously for all of the trials, if Donald Trump is
04:48 convicted for the January 6 trials, for the RICO trials in Atlanta, for the New York City
04:55 trial and so forth, and we ask each of them individually, the result is 50/50.
05:00 It's a split horse race when you ask them, would you vote for Biden or Trump?
05:05 And you introduce that conditional of him being indicted.
05:10 So I think a lot of this is already baked into public opinion and we're unlikely to
05:17 see very strong voter shifts as a result of this.
05:22 Plus, this is a verdict that will very likely be contested in another court level by the
05:31 Trump team as well.
05:32 So I don't think that it will change a lot, nor this is the end of the story for the time
05:40 being.
05:41 I think that you'll see the bases react as you would expect them to react, you know,
05:47 being galvanized on both sides.
05:50 And you know, it will contribute to further polarization in our politics, at least in
05:56 the short term.
05:57 We've crossed so many Rubicons with Donald Trump when it comes to his actions, his leadership,
06:04 everything like that.
06:06 And now we're really in uncharted territory here.
06:10 Do you think there's a world in which this is politically beneficial for Donald Trump?
06:14 Because once the news of the verdict broke, there was a point in time where his fundraising
06:19 page, WinRed, temporarily stopped working, arguably because so many people were visiting
06:27 it.
06:28 Yeah, it's quite possible that it could help him.
06:32 Obviously, Trump has played the victim card and has called many of these trials application
06:38 of lawfare, legal warfare by Democrats.
06:43 That is the messaging and the narrative that has come out of the Trump camp.
06:48 I think it'll be very interesting to see what happens with independents, right?
06:53 It's unlikely for this to really matter to them.
06:56 Independents are concerned about inflation, the economy, they're concerned about immigration.
07:01 These are policy voters that are very much in the middle and open to considering both
07:08 of the candidates as long as the candidates give them something they want, speak the language
07:13 that they feel they should be speaking.
07:15 So it's possible he gets a bump.
07:17 It's possible the horse race changes in Biden's favor.
07:21 But I would say that public opinion up to now suggests that it's not going to be a big
07:27 change.
07:28 It's not going to be a fundamental shift in the trajectory of this horse race and this
07:35 campaign, which is very tight.
07:37 And on any given day, it's a toss up race between Biden and Trump.
07:41 You brought up an interesting point earlier that this is just a data point for an independent
07:46 voter.
07:49 How serious is this to them?
07:51 I mean, what when you hear convicted felon, I mean, why is that just a data point instead
07:56 of a complete turnoff?
08:00 This is not what animates independents.
08:03 It's not a key issue for them.
08:07 And again, voters tend to be cross pressured by definition.
08:11 They will hear messages from both camps and from both campaigns.
08:16 Right now, it's very clear that voters are very unhappy with the economy.
08:20 They're feeling inflation in their wallet and at home or within their table.
08:27 They care about issues like immigration.
08:30 They won't grant bargains and consensus between Democrats and Republicans.
08:34 But obviously, the parties and their leadership tend to be very polar.
08:39 So I think that this will not really move the dial with independents.
08:44 It might change some minds, but there's a fair bit to go between now and the election.
08:53 There's a full five months.
08:55 And in our last poll, 30 percent of all registered voters said that they might still change their
09:02 mind.
09:03 They're waiting for the debates.
09:04 They're waiting to learn more from the candidates about what these candidates will do for them.
09:10 That is ultimately what will decide this race, which will be a very tight race, not necessarily
09:17 these tribes.
09:18 These are characters and witnesses we as American people have been hearing about for years.
09:25 Michael Cohen, Stormy Daniels, Donald Trump, obviously.
09:28 Do you think that familiarity paired with Michael Cohen before lying to Congress, do
09:34 you think that that could be a reason why this isn't changing voters' minds as much?
09:40 Yes.
09:41 I mean, I think that in the courtroom of public opinion, a different courtroom, this cast
09:46 of characters is a very tainted cast of characters.
09:52 And that's in large part why it's unlikely to change Republican sentiment and even independent
10:00 sentiments as we think about it.
10:03 And again, we'll see what will happen.
10:07 But even if the judge is sentencing, it's a harsh sentencing.
10:15 People forget in 1920, Eugene Debs, the socialist candidate, was at federal penitentiary in
10:22 Georgia and he collected millions of votes.
10:25 So this doesn't prevent Donald Trump from being on the ticket.
10:28 This doesn't prevent Donald Trump from running.
10:33 If the sentencing is home arrest, then that certainly has the potential to impact the
10:42 campaign.
10:44 But in today's world, also, it's a world of digital media and you can speak very loudly
10:53 even from your home perch.
10:55 We forget that the last election, pretty much the candidates, they campaigned from home,
11:00 both of them.
11:01 So I think that the dust, we need to see how it settles.
11:06 We'll be doing polling together with Forbes, which we hope to release as early as tomorrow,
11:12 just to see which way public opinion is breaking in that first 24 hours.
11:16 And then we'll keep on monitoring it.
11:18 But I do not expect any large changes as a result of this verdict.
11:23 And as the media cycle dies down, I think that we'll see voters reverting back to the
11:29 issues that they say that they care about the most, which are largely bread and butter
11:34 issues.
11:35 The timing is really interesting.
11:37 Right now we're five months away from the election.
11:39 Obviously, that's a lifetime away, many news cycles away from the presidential election.
11:45 Since this isn't an October surprise, do you think, you know, that takes the sting away
11:50 a bit from Donald Trump?
11:52 Yes.
11:53 I mean, I think that none of the other trials are likely to go through before the election.
12:01 This judgment will be probably contested in appeals court in one way, shape or form.
12:09 It's unlikely that that process will be done until after the election, too.
12:16 So really, I think what is to be seen right now is how harsh the sentencing is and whether
12:23 or not this very tainted cast of characters that took the stand against Donald Trump within
12:29 this trial really moved voters' perception of either of the candidates.
12:37 I would not be surprised if the race continues to be at that heat.
12:42 The debates, whether they still happen or not, have the potential to change the dynamic.
12:50 And we have to keep in mind that American voters believe that in the American system,
12:57 the final judgment, the final arbiter of who's right and who's wrong and who merits leading
13:06 the country comes down to voters.
13:09 They fundamentally believe that these issues should all be adjudicated at the ballot box.
13:16 So any perception of interference of that process, of the electoral process, from judicial
13:24 cases like this or any type of cases, is unlikely to be met very positively by voters.
13:31 There will come a point in the next five months where voters will say, "You know what?
13:35 I want to hear from both of the candidates.
13:37 These are the choices that have been put in front of me.
13:41 And frankly, I want the debates.
13:43 And I don't want one candidate to be confined at home and unable to join these debates."
13:49 So I think that ultimately, all of this will be adjudicated at the ballot box that voters
13:56 wanted to be adjudicated at the ballot box.
14:00 Keeping that in mind, I want to read you President Biden's response.
14:04 This was posted on X.
14:05 There's only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office at the ballot box.
14:10 Donate to our campaign today.
14:12 So do you think that this conviction is a W for Democrats?
14:19 I mean, look, I think that the both parties are going to fundraise.
14:22 As I said, it galvanizes both of the bases, right?
14:25 It's red meat for both of the bases to some extent.
14:29 Sure, they might have stellar fundraising on both sides.
14:33 Ultimately, who's going to decide this election is who shows up at the ballot box and who
14:39 doesn't, which base is the most energized, and those swing voters in the middle, those
14:46 independent voters who are yet to make up their mind.
14:51 And I think that both of the campaigns are too focused on their base and taking too much
14:58 risk by being focused on that base because swing voters are fundamentally more valuable
15:05 than base voters.
15:07 If you switch a voter from one camp to the other, then you need to turn out two new voters
15:13 to make up for that voter, right?
15:15 Because the net effect is minus one on one side and plus one on the other side.
15:20 It's a net effect of two.
15:22 So you need two more voters to come out to neutralize the effect of switching someone
15:29 on.
15:30 And again, I fundamentally believe, and the polling suggests that this election will be
15:34 decided by independents and undecideds in the middle who traditionally are issues.
15:42 And they make up their mind at the very end based on the issue position that both of the
15:47 candidates have.
15:49 - That's really interesting, and I am curious because you said earlier this verdict is more
15:53 of a data point for independent voters.
15:56 When they're looking at this, let's say they're looking at this election as a puzzle, this
16:00 is only one piece of the puzzle.
16:04 Since you're saying the issues matter to these voters, how do both parties turn these voters
16:09 out and get them to say, hey, vote for my guy, despite him being a convicted felon,
16:14 or hey, vote for Joe Biden?
16:16 - Well, this is an unprecedented election because both of the candidates have 99% name
16:23 recognition and they are ubiquitously known, right?
16:29 And there's no new information around any of the candidates that can really surface
16:34 to really change voter perceptions.
16:38 Everything about the guilty verdict, everything about this trial is already known, and everything
16:42 about both of the candidates on both sides is already known.
16:45 And frankly, voters don't like either of the candidates, right?
16:48 When you ask them, do you want Biden to run again or not?
16:52 Two thirds say no.
16:53 When you ask them, do you want Trump to run again or not?
16:56 60% say no.
16:57 But the parties are forcing this choice on the voters again.
17:02 So that's why I think that what will be new for voters are policy prescriptions.
17:07 What will be new for voters are ideas that will fundamentally improve their lives and
17:13 deal with the problems that the country is facing.
17:17 Inflation, possible economic turmoil, immigration, crime, and so forth.
17:23 And those are really the types of initiatives and the types of messaging that is likely
17:28 to drive the outcome of the election.
17:31 More so than another fact about Biden or about Trump, which again, is very likely to be done
17:38 already.
17:40 If you turn on any news station, if you go on social media, if you visit any website,
17:46 this is the top news dominating.
17:48 Obviously, it's historic.
17:50 It's unprecedented.
17:51 Literally, history making before our very eyes.
17:56 Because this is such a national, international conversation, as a pollster, do you think
18:00 anything's missing?
18:02 No, I mean, I think that the news cycle will run its course and will die down.
18:09 There's this fascination with Donald Trump.
18:11 He's always driven TV ratings up for good and for bad, mostly on his own account.
18:18 But no, I mean, again, I think that we'll be moving on fairly quickly from this.
18:27 I'm not sure when the sentencing is expected, but it's likely to be sooner rather than later.
18:34 And again, the sentencing might play even more strongly than the news that he's been
18:41 found guilty on 34 counts.
18:44 And the sentencing is coming up right before the RNC.
18:48 But between now and then, what are you looking out for?
18:52 Well, you know, I would say that between now and then, it's really the debates.
19:00 And I think that debates has the potential to change people's mind.
19:05 As I mentioned, 30% are still on a wait and see basis.
19:11 And this is that coveted middle, right?
19:13 These are those voters that could tip the election one way or another.
19:17 In either case, it's going to be very close, similarly close to what we saw in 2020.
19:23 And the viewers might be reminded that 2020 was decided by a few thousand or tens of thousands
19:31 of votes here or there in states like Wisconsin, in states like Pennsylvania, in states like
19:38 Georgia and so forth.
19:40 So it was a razor tight election for a democracy of 330 million people, right?
19:46 It came down to very, very few votes.
19:50 And that highlights and underscores how important turnout will be, and how important making
19:56 sure that the voters that are on the fence are convinced one way or another, and they
20:01 do actually show up in order to make the difference.
20:06 And so I think that there's still a very long process between now and the sentencing, given
20:12 that, as you mentioned, it will be right before the Republican National Convention.
20:17 And a lot can change between now and then.
20:19 We'll see how sort of the dust settles.
20:22 We will definitely see how the dust settles.
20:25 And when there are new polls, new developments, I hope you come back on, join me and break
20:29 it down.
20:30 Dritan Esho, thank you for joining me.
20:32 Thank you very much.
20:33 Nice to see you.
20:34 Thank you.
20:34 Thank you.
20:35 Thank you.
20:35 Thank you.
20:36 Thank you.
20:36 Thank you.
20:37 Thank you.
20:37 Thank you.
20:38 Thank you.
20:38 Thank you.
20:39 Thank you.
20:39 Thank you.
20:40 Thank you.
20:40 [BLANK_AUDIO]