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00:00Although Rafa is the underdog, how competitive do you expect that opening round match against Varev to be?
00:06You know, I had to really think about this. As far as me being the better and me being the fan,
00:13how am I going to relay information to my audience when it comes to this wager?
00:18Because one, it was totally unexpected by everybody, through us all off guard,
00:23that this is something that you would see in a semi-final or a final of a major, not in the first round.
00:30So because of that, I'm really having to dial back my fandom and look at this as objectively as I could.
00:37And I still want to go with Rafa Nadal not only has a chance to cover the game spread, cover a set spread,
00:44but to come out as the outright underdog in this matchup.
00:47The last time that these two players faced is Varev Nadal was back in the 2022 French Open.
00:51Nadal, in his career, has only had three losses at Roland-Garros. He's 18-0 in the first round.
00:59Now this is an entirely different situation, but his earliest exit was in the round of 16 against Robin Zetterling.
01:06The reason why he left so early was there was a lot going on in that year.
01:11His parents were getting divorced. He didn't have the mindset.
01:14And the following year, he whooped them in straight sets to be like,
01:17okay, you know what? That was a mistake. This is no longer going to happen.
01:20Nadal is combat ready. He's rested. He has the mentality of a bull.
01:24And he's not just, like I mentioned, he's not just showing up to win a couple of matches.
01:27He's not here to show face. He is showing up to win all of it.
01:30And it starts with Nadal. His game style still suits.
01:34It doesn't matter if he is 37 years old or 27.
01:37His body may not be the same, but his game tactics, his ability is still there.
01:43He's coming into this rested. This is the best shot.
01:45Getting him in the first round was what he could have best asked for.
01:49If this was Zverev in the fourth round quarterfinal, I would have some hesitation.
01:53But his best opportunity to win as an underdog is in the first round.