The announcement by Ireland, Spain and Norway of the recognition of a Palestinian state is perceived as a major blow in Israel. Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an associate fellow of the International Security Programme at Chatham House and international negotiator, tells FRANCE 24's Mark Owen that the key missing element from the speeches in recognition of a Palestinian state is to explain to Israel how the existence of a Palestinian state makes Israel more secure.
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00:00 Three European countries have this Wednesday recognised Palestine as a state.
00:06 Ireland, Norway and Spain add their names to nine EU states that have already acknowledged
00:11 Palestine since 1988.
00:12 Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, back then of course part
00:17 of the Soviet Union.
00:19 Recognition of Palestine was approved by then.
00:22 And also Malta and Cyprus and then in 2014 Sweden.
00:26 Now we can add Ireland, Norway and Spain with Slovenia to join this group come the
00:30 end of this month.
00:32 So the move today by Ireland, Norway and Spain comes 12 days after the United Nations voted
00:37 to make Palestine a full member.
00:39 Israel recalled its ambassadors to Dublin, Madrid and Oslo as a result of today's declarations
00:45 of support and recognition for a Palestinian state.
00:50 Things are moving.
00:51 Let's get the analysis.
00:52 Our guest is Nomi Bar-Yakov, who is Associate Fellow on the International Security Program
00:57 at Chatham House.
00:58 Nomi, thank you very much for being with us here on France24.
01:00 We appreciate your time.
01:03 Can I start by asking you first, we've got many things to go through so I'll try and
01:07 be quick.
01:09 How are you reading this latest declaration about Palestinian statehood from the Irish,
01:14 the Spanish and the Norwegians?
01:16 Well I think it was to be expected.
01:18 It was just only a question of time and I think they're just showing that they're somewhat
01:22 fed up with the fact that the current Israeli government is showing no desire whatsoever
01:29 to even contemplate a Palestinian state at any given moment in time.
01:35 And I think that was a strong message that they were sending, that the only solution
01:42 to the conflict, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with dreadful ramifications in the region,
01:50 is to have two states side by side and this was their way of making a statement that it's
01:55 time to get cracking on it.
01:58 And that this comes 12 days after the UN voted to make Palestine a full member of the UN.
02:04 Again it's adding more weight, more momentum?
02:06 Correct.
02:07 I mean there's a trajectory here.
02:08 There's now 144 states that have formally declared Palestine as a state.
02:15 So it's, as you mentioned correctly, Slovenia is the next one and I'm sure there will be
02:20 other countries to follow.
02:24 And it's just time to look at how we resolve the conflict.
02:26 We're seven and a half months into this war following horrendous atrocities that Hamas
02:32 committed on the 7th of October.
02:35 But one needs to sort of figure out what the end game is and then go kind of in reverse
02:39 engineering and work out what the benchmarks are.
02:41 And the end game is to have two states, a Palestinian state and an Israeli state, side
02:46 by side, both states sovereign, independent and secure.
02:51 And these countries, Norway, Spain and Ireland among the other 141, believe that this is
03:00 a move that will provide Israel security.
03:03 I mean the Norwegian foreign minister stated today very clearly that he believes that this
03:07 is in Israel's national security interests.
03:10 The one element that I feel is missing and very strongly missing is that there's a failure
03:15 on the part of these countries to explain to Israel how a Palestinian state is going
03:22 to provide security for Israel, in the sense that the idea is to have normalization.
03:28 The idea is that not only that there'll be a Palestinian state and an Israeli state,
03:33 but also Israel will normalize relations with the Arab states that Israel doesn't have a
03:38 relationship with, namely Saudi Arabia, the key state that is in question, and all the
03:44 others.
03:45 So it's basically an implementation of the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, later revised
03:50 in 2007, calling for recognition of two states, Israel and Palestine, side by side along the
03:58 1967 line, and the quid pro quo would be normalization for Israel with the Arab states.
04:04 I mean that's a very brief summary.
04:07 It's a brief summary, but we appreciate your clarity on this because it is a very complicated
04:11 issue.
04:12 And for many people who don't understand and have your depth of knowledge on this, these
04:16 things are just buzzing around in a circle.
04:18 Let me, before we come back to you, bring in, you mentioned him earlier, Norway's foreign
04:22 minister, Espen Barthe Eide.
04:25 Let's take a listen to what he was saying earlier.
04:27 Yeah.
04:28 I'll bring you back in.
04:29 Sure.
04:30 Today, Ireland, Norway and Spain are announcing that we recognize the state of Palestine.
04:40 Each of us will now undertake whatever national steps are necessary to give effect to that
04:46 decision.
04:47 In the lead up to today's announcement, I've spoken with a number of other leaders and
04:53 counterparts and I'm confident that further countries will join us in taking this important
04:59 step in the coming weeks.
05:02 That was Simon Harris, the Taoiseach of Ireland speaking earlier.
05:07 His words in many ways, I think echoing what the other capital cities were saying about
05:11 this one, that there is a recognition of the Palestinian situation, this Palestinian state,
05:18 but also by the same token, a recognition of Israel as well.
05:22 So this is actually a support for Israel.
05:24 Do you think that's a message Israel is hearing, Naomi?
05:26 No, I don't think it's a message Israel is hearing.
05:29 And I think there's a missing element, I think alongside the statement of recognition of
05:34 a Palestinian state, which are perceived in Israel as a victory for Hamas and a blow to
05:42 Israel's desire to get the hostages that have been locked in underground tunnels in horrendous
05:51 conditions, innocent hostages that were kidnapped on the 7th of October.
05:57 It's felt like a blow in the sense of the Israeli perspective and not, there was no
06:03 mention of the hostages, which of course lie at the heart of this conflict.
06:07 I think if the hostages were returned, there wouldn't be a war in Gaza.
06:11 And the question is, you know, how to end the war.
06:13 So alongside the recognition of Palestine, there has to be an explanation of how the
06:23 existence of a Palestinian state is going to make Israel more secure.
06:27 And that explanation, I can give it to you, but really it's the responsibility of those
06:33 countries that are declaring Palestine as a state to do.
06:39 Because if they were to explain, we are now announcing it's time for Palestine to realize
06:45 a state, even though the borders are not clearly defined at the moment.
06:51 I don't have a problem with that.
06:53 But I just think there's a huge, huge bit that's missing here of reaching out to the
07:00 traumatized Israeli public and explaining a Palestinian state will provide you security
07:06 because there will be a new regional architecture in the Middle East.
07:13 Israel will have diplomatic relations with all the Arab states.
07:17 That's part of the deal.
07:21 And if Israel doesn't agree to having a Palestinian state, there's going to be war.
07:27 And Israel needs to understand that a Palestinian state is in its own national interest.
07:35 And it's not a prize to Hamas, because the plan is not to have Hamas in the government.
07:40 I mean, there will have to be elections.
07:42 The Palestinians will need to decide how they're going to govern their own state.
07:47 And that is very complicated.
07:48 I mean, Jan Englund in interviews today, and Norwegians, all the Norwegians, Norwegian
07:54 officials and former officials that have been interviewed today, failed to explain this
07:59 particular point.
08:00 And they just said, no, this is a boost to the Palestinian Authority.
08:03 In other words, Fatah, it is the party that is in charge of the West Bank.
08:11 And it is not a move that promotes Hamas.
08:14 Hamas won't be part of the government.
08:16 But I don't see how they can say that, because it is up to the Palestinian people to decide
08:22 who is going to be in their government.
08:26 It seems incredibly unlikely, Noam, that Israel would tolerate anything that involved Hamas
08:29 being in the equation, though, doesn't it?
08:31 Correct.
08:32 And possibly quite rightly.
08:35 Quite rightly, I fully agree.
08:36 So this is why this is what I'm saying is the missing part here.
08:40 And that's why you're seeing such an extreme reaction from Israel.
08:45 And you can understand from the Israeli point of view, without an explanation of how this
08:50 excludes Hamas, which is what the Norwegian officials, including the foreign minister,
08:55 have been saying.
08:56 Also, I think he said it to your colleague, Francois Picard, a couple of hours ago.
09:01 So it's not only in official statements.
09:05 It's also in all the interviews.
09:07 So if you have Hamas out of the equation, how do you ensure that Hamas are out of the
09:13 equation?
09:14 Let me stop you for a second.
09:16 I'm sorry to interrupt.
09:17 And let's hear from the Norwegian foreign minister speaking to us a little earlier.
09:30 The government has decided that Norway will recognize the state of Palestine.
09:35 Norway's recognition will come into force on the 28th of May.
09:40 Norway will therefore regard Palestine as an independent state with all the rights and
09:44 duties that this entails.
09:46 A Palestinian state is obliged, in line with international law, to live in peace within
09:52 secure internationally recognized borders and to comply with all relevant UN resolutions.
09:58 Not the foreign minister, prime minister.
10:03 Sorry about that.
10:04 But I think the message, as you've been saying, isn't quite coming through, is it?
10:07 That basically...
10:08 That's missing and I think it's very important.
10:10 And that's why you're getting the reaction that you're getting in Israel, not only from
10:14 the current extreme right wing government in Israel, but also from the center and the
10:19 left.
10:20 So I think it is problematic.
10:22 I think you need to look at this holistically.
10:24 And you also, don't forget, it's coming on the heels of a decision by Karim Khan, the
10:31 prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, on Monday when his team was about to board
10:36 a plane to Israel to discuss the indictments, to discuss Israel's cooperation.
10:41 Instead of boarding the team, he gave an interview to Christiane Amanpour and announced that
10:45 he was issuing a request for arrest warrants from the pretrial chamber.
10:52 That's just the International Criminal Court's long procedure against not only three Hamas
10:57 officials, but the prime minister and defense minister of the state of Israel.
11:01 So you can understand that this has been a week in which there have been decisions, there
11:07 have been announcements made that were not expected.
11:11 And taking it all in context, I think there needs to be a slightly further explanation
11:16 about the whole process.
11:18 We're going to hear now from Pedro Sánchez, Spain's prime minister.
11:22 His words are what he said that will get your reaction to that.
11:31 If anything is clear to me, it's that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not working towards
11:36 peace in Palestine.
11:38 Fighting against the terrorist group Hamas is legitimate and necessary after the events
11:42 of October 7th.
11:44 Netanyahu is causing so much pain and so much destruction and so much resentment in
11:49 Gaza and the rest of Palestine that the two-state solution is in danger, serious danger.
11:55 Both parties that form our progressive coalition government agree and act in reflection of
12:00 the majority opinion of the Spanish people.
12:03 Next Tuesday, May 28th, Spain will approve in its Council of Ministers the recognition
12:08 of the state of Palestine.
12:13 Netanyahu has pushed for a blanket EU recognition of Palestine.
12:17 What do you think about what he was saying there?
12:20 Is Netanyahu the problem, Nomi?
12:22 Well, I think Netanyahu is part of the problem.
12:25 His entire coalition is a problem.
12:28 He chose, he didn't have to choose, but he chose to ally himself in order to stay in
12:33 power, in order to make a government with very, very extreme right-wing people like
12:39 I think names that you may know, like Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bitzalel Smotrich, and many others,
12:45 that do not believe in the Palestinian state.
12:47 I think Netanyahu himself sways.
12:49 We've seen in Y Plantation, for example, this is an agreement that was made in 1998 in Washington,
12:56 D.C. as part of the Oslo process that Netanyahu can sway.
13:00 Had he made a coalition with a center-left, then probably we wouldn't have had all of
13:05 these declarations coming.
13:07 We would have had a peace process.
13:08 But he is the problem in the sense that he does not have a plan to end the war in Gaza,
13:14 and that's very clear.
13:15 So he's prolonging the war without an endgame in sight, and therefore the other states,
13:23 including what the Prime Minister Sanchez just said, are getting fed up and saying we
13:28 can't work with him.
13:30 My fear is that without talking to the Israeli people and explaining to them what lies behind
13:35 this, this will only strengthen the right.
13:39 Elections will have to be held in Israel soon.
13:41 Netanyahu's not popular.
13:44 But there's no guarantee that you're going to get a more left-wing government, because
13:48 Israel is feeling hounded.
13:50 It's feeling like it's under a witch hunt.
13:52 It's feeling that no country has any empathy for the hostages.
13:56 There's very little talk about the hostages and a call for release of innocent people
14:02 who were kidnapped from their beds.
14:04 We need to leave it there.
14:06 Thank you so much, Steve, for joining us.
14:07 Naomi Bar-Yakov from Chatham House, an Associate Fellow in the International Security Programme,
14:11 among many other roles that you fulfilled, especially at the United Nations.
14:15 Thank you for giving us your analysis and your depth of knowledge on the subject.
14:19 We greatly appreciate it.
14:20 Thank you for joining us here on Apropos.
14:22 That concludes this session.