NBA Conference Finals Analysis: Celtics vs. Pacers
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00:00 Oh, and Gilbert, here we go. We're down to the final four. I
00:04 think one of the four teams was expected, maybe not the others.
00:09 And it should provide for some really good intriguing stories.
00:13 And without further ado, let's just get right into it, because
00:15 I know we got a lot to talk about. All right. So is this a
00:18 fair line here? We don't see this a lot in conference
00:21 finals, the Celtics 10 point favorites in game one against
00:25 the Indiana Pacers. The total Gilbert is two 20 and a half.
00:29 This has been a high flying Indiana team all season long. So
00:33 this is why they got to set the total there. But if Boston wins,
00:37 probably goes under I think that's fair to say. But if
00:40 Boston wins, do they cover the 10? Really interesting line here,
00:44 I think with the side and total.
00:45 Craig, I had the same thought when I saw the line for this
00:50 game. And I think what goes into it is the fact the Celtics in
00:53 both game ones of these playoffs have made statements, I think
00:57 they beat the Heat by 25 points and beat the Cavaliers by 20
01:01 points. So I understand when they're playing a Pacers team
01:04 who just played in a very emotional, high, high intensity
01:10 game seven, two days ago, there is a little bit of a cushion
01:13 there. I think the Celtics could come out and probably make a
01:17 big statement to start and the Pacers will probably maybe catch
01:20 up a little bit later, but it might be too much. So I actually
01:23 do like the Celtics and 10 points. And this one I look at
01:25 the Pacers had a big game two days ago. And they also had a
01:28 rough start in game ones in both of their previous series as
01:31 well. So history would lend itself towards the Celtics
01:34 taking care of business tonight.
01:35 All right. So the hot conversation is not the Celtics
01:38 winning the series because I think that most are predicting
01:41 that the hot conversation is how many games it goes. So let's
01:44 take a look at that over on FanDuel five and a half is the
01:47 total that has been set. If it goes six games, you would win
01:51 120 bucks on your $100 bet as an example and not a ton of
01:55 value here at all on the under that. So Gilbert, can we make
01:59 the case that Indiana steals a game in Boston somehow? I mean,
02:03 if that happens and this is definitely going to go over, I
02:06 think the five and a half.
02:07 I actually do like this series to go at six games. It's not
02:12 going any more than six games, but I think that the Celtics
02:15 have kind of let other teams hang around. They played very
02:19 injured Heat and Cavaliers teams and still managed to lose
02:22 games to both of those teams. This is the healthiest team.
02:24 They've played all postseason and they're still without
02:27 Chris that's porzingis for at least the first two games of
02:29 this series. I think the Pacers are very talented. They have
02:32 the capability to get hot as we saw in game seven against that
02:35 next team. So that's the formula to steal a game and maybe catch
02:39 the Celtics by surprise when the series swings back to
02:41 Indiana. It's going to be a raucous environment and they had
02:44 some success with the Celtics this season. So I can see them
02:47 going to six games.
02:49 Yeah, I agree. I do like that too. I do think Indiana is
02:52 going to fight a little bit and I do like that as far as going
02:54 over that total there. Okay. So now the tougher series to call
02:58 without a doubt. I mean, let's just get real here. I mean
03:01 Minnesota Gilbert is favored to win the series, but I don't
03:05 know. I mean Dallas is going to win some games and if they get
03:07 hot, I mean and Luca gets hot all of a sudden this goes to
03:10 seven. It's anybody's but Minnesota is favored in game
03:12 one. We know what that environment is going to be like.
03:14 It's going to be credible. Total is two oh six and a half.
03:18 I mean Gilbert is game one the game that Dallas wins in
03:21 Minnesota. I mean, I know next week. We're going to be talking
03:24 and I'm going to tell you this now Dallas is going to win a
03:26 game in Minnesota. I don't know when it's going to happen. It
03:28 could be tonight could be the next game. It could be game
03:31 five or seven. Dallas will win a road game in my opinion. Is
03:35 this the one tonight?
03:36 You know what Craig you mentioned the environment is an
03:39 environment 20 years in the making for this Timberwolves
03:42 team and I don't think that they're going to lose game one
03:45 having not played a Western Conference finals game in the
03:48 Twin Cities in the last 20 years similar to the Celtics
03:52 Pacers series. There are two teams. The Timberwolves are
03:54 two and oh in game ones this postseason and the Mavs are
03:57 owing to in game ones this postseason. So you can see that
04:00 the Timberwolves are trying to make a statement to start
04:02 the series and the Mavericks are feeling things out a little
04:04 bit. I'm torn between this series being a toss-up and the
04:07 Mavericks having no chance. But why I say that is that the
04:10 Mavericks kind of feel like a team of Destiny the way that
04:12 they've been doing things, but I think game one will go to
04:15 Minnesota. Yeah, and I misspoke a tomorrow night is game one
04:19 of that series. Now in terms of the total amount of games
04:23 that this will go. It's flipped like the other one over is
04:26 minus 175 on the five and a half. And I think that Gilbert
04:31 maybe we just both agree on that. So what do you do? I
04:33 guess you just don't do anything right because I think
04:35 that we think at least six if not seven.
04:39 Yeah, it feels like at least six or seven, you know, the
04:42 Mavericks team. They just have the star power with Kyrie
04:44 Irving and Luka Dantich doesn't really matter anywhere
04:47 else. But Luka Dantich has been hampered by that injury
04:50 a little bit in his right knee, but he seemed to get it
04:52 together towards the end of that Thunder series. But on
04:54 the flip side, Minnesota is so principled and so good
04:57 defensively. They're going to make life difficult for those
05:01 two-star players, but I think it's going to be a chess
05:03 match two teams that have played really good defense
05:05 throughout the postseason. I think that is going to make
05:07 it a grinded out slug it out series that a lot of games
05:10 could come down to the wire. Like we've seen with both of
05:12 these teams in the playoffs.
05:14 All right. Finally, the Celtics are minus 160 to win
05:17 the NBA championship.
05:18 Look, I understand why they are the favorites, but Gilbert
05:23 through the years Boston has shocked us with some
05:26 underperforming play and fired some coaches and you know,
05:30 hired some other coaches and and the season has ended
05:33 in disappointment a lot. Now. Look, they look the best
05:35 that they have amongst those other times where they were
05:38 favored either to win the East or favored to win a series.
05:41 Is this the time they get it done or could Minnesota
05:45 Dallas or even Indiana surprise them?
05:47 This feels like the year that the Celtics get it done
05:51 of the other teams though. I think Minnesota is best
05:55 equipped to do it. We saw what they did the defending
05:58 champs in the last round backs were against the wall
06:01 down and out and still somehow found a way to get the
06:04 job done. That perimeter defense matches up. Well with
06:06 what the Celtics do best with Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown.
06:09 So we think about JD McDaniels think about Anthony
06:11 Edwards think about Carl Anthony Townsend Rudy Gobert
06:14 the Timberwolves do check a lot of the boxes at a
06:16 championship winner has so I'm expecting both of those
06:19 teams to be in the NBA finals. We call it the Kevin
06:21 Garnett Bowl and we'll see but I think the Timberwolves
06:23 have the best chance of knocking the Celtics off
06:25 to anybody else.
06:26 Yeah, and if it is Boston, Minnesota, we could see
06:29 some totals some betting totals under 200. We just
06:33 don't see I mean two really good defensive teams been
06:36 a while since defense has won an NBA championship.
06:38 It may be the case this year. All right, Gilbert great
06:40 to catch up with you once again.
06:42 We'll talk again next week.
06:43 - Sounds good, looking forward to it, Craig.